Friday, December 28, 2012

NL PreSeason Power Rankings

PreSeason (Season 26) NL Power Rankings:  Last Year Rankings ( )

1. Chicago (3)-Same owner since Season 17
Last Year 107-55 Div Title and WS Champ
2 Straight Playoff Apps (11 overall)
10 Division Titles (last season 25)
3 NL Champs (last season 25)
2 WS Champs (last season 25)

2. Arizona (1)-Same owner since Season 1
Last Year 109-53 Div Title
1 Straight Playoff Apps (9 overall)
6 Division Titles (last season 25)

3. Toronto (4)-Same owner since Season 1
Last Year 100-62 Wild Card
3 Straight Playoff Apps (6 overall)
5 Division Titles (last season 24)
3 NL Champs (last season 24)
2 WS Champs (last season 24)

4. Salt Lake City (7)-Same owner since Season 20
Last Year 76-86
1 Playoff Apps (last season 24)

5. Scottsdale (5)-Same owner since Season 22
Last Year 87-75 Wild Card
1 Straight Playoff Apps (16 overall)
15 Division Titles (last season 20)
2 NL Champs (last season 20)
2 WS Champs (last season 20)

6. Tampa (2)-Same owner since Season 25
Last Year 105-57 Div Title
4 Straight Playoff Apps (9 overall)
6 Division Titles (last season 25)
1 NL Champs (last season 2)

7. Kansas City (6)-Same owner since Season 17
Last Year 85-77 Div Title
1 Straight Playoff Apps (6 oveall)
4 Division Titles (last season 25)

8. Pawtucket (8)-Same owner since Season 9
Last Year 78-84
6 Playoff Apps (last season 24)
3 Division Titles (last season 24)

9. Hartford (13)-Same owner since Season 1
Last Year 63-99
16 Playoff Apps (last season 23)
9 Division Titles (last season 15)
4 NL Champs (last season 22)
3 WS Champs (last season 22)

10. Cincinnati (12)-New Owner
Last Year 83-79
13 Playoff Apps (last season 20)
8 Division Titles (last season 19)
3 NL Champs (last season 16)
2 WS Champs (last season 16)

11. Austin (10)-Same owner since Season 1
Last Year 72-90
7 Playoff Apps (last season 19)
3 Division Titles (last season 17)

12. Jackson (15)-Same owner since Season 25
Last Year 54-108
9 Playoff Apps (last season 20)
2 Division Titles (last season 13)
1 NL Champs (last season 13)

13. Colorado Springs (9)-Same owner since Season 19
Last Year 77-85
4 Playoff Apps (last season 23)
3 Division Titles (last season 23)

14.Trenton (11)-Same owner since Season 17
Last Year 71-91
11 Playoff Apps (last season 24)
5 Division Titles (last season 20)
1 NL Champs (last season 17)

15. Burlington (16)-Same owner since Season 19
Last Year 64-98
7 Playoff Apps (last season 17)
4 Division Titles (last season 16)
1 NL Champs (last season 15)

16. Texas (14)-Same owner since Season 24
Last Year 57-105
17 Playoff Apps (last season 21)
14 Division Titles (last season 21)
6 NL Champs (last season 14)
1 WS Champs (last season 5)

PreSeason AL Power Rankings

PreSeason (Season 26) AL Power Rankings  Last Year Ranking ( )

1. Vancouver (1)-Same owner since Season 2
Last Year 103-59 Div Title and AL Champ
24 Straight Playoff Apperances (24 overall)
21 Division Titles
9 AL Champs (Last: Season 25)
4 WS Champs (Last: Season 15)

2. Milwaukee (2)-Same owner since Season 12
Last Year 106-56 Div Title
6 Straight Playoff Apps (12 overall)
7 Division Titles

3. Norfolk (3)-Same owner since Season 21
Last Year 98-64 Div Title
5 Straight Playoff Apps (11 overall)
8 Division Titles
4 AL Champs (Last: Season 23)
2 WS Champs: (Last Season 23)

4. Boise (4)-New Owner
Last Year 100-62 Wild Card
2 Straight Playoff Apps (13 oveall)
3 Division Titles (Last: Season 24)
2 AL Champs (Last Season 7)

5. Columbus (7)-Same owner since Season 3
Last Year 88-74 Wild Card
7 Straight Playoff Apps (13 overall)
8 Division Titles (Last Season 24)

6. Charlotte (5)-Same owner since Season 23
Last Year 85-77 Div Title
2 Straight Playoff Apps (7 overall)
6 Division Titles

7. Richmond (6)-Same owner since Season 20
Last Year 85-77
9 Playoff Apps (last season 18)
9 Division Titles (last season 18)
2 AL champs (last season 12)
1 WS Champs (last season 12)

8. Syracuse (11)-Same owner since Season 19
Last Year 78-84
7 Playoff Apps (last season 18)
5 Division Titles (last season 18)

9. Louisville (14)-Same owner since Season 25
Last Year 72-90
12 Playoff Apps (Last season 23)
8 Division Titles (last season 20)
4 AL champs (last season 20)
3 WS champs (last season 17)

10. Monterrey (16)-Same owner since Season 25
Last Year 65-97
4 Playoff Apps (last season 20)
4 Division Titles (last season 20)

11. Dover (9)-Same owner since Season 16
Last Year 77-85
12 Playoff Apps (last season 19)
5 Division Titles (last season 17)
1 AL Champ (last season 19)
1 WS Champ (last season 17)

12. Fresno (13)-Same owner since Season 10-17, 19
Last Year 65-97
5 Playoff Apps (last season 21)
1 Division Titles (last season 20)

13. Phildelphia (10)-New owner
Last Year 72-90
4 Playoff Apps (last season 16)
2 Division Titles (last season 16)

14. San Fransico (8)-Same owner since Season 25
Last Year 79-83
1 Playoff Apps (last season 6)

15. Augusta (15)-New owner
Last Year 72-90
16 Playoff Apps (last season 20)
8 Division Titles (last seaon 12)
3 AL Champs (last season 18)
2 WS Champs (last season 8)

16. Little Rock (12)-Same owner since 19
Last Year 59-103
4 Playoff Apps (last season 22)
4 Division Titles (last season 22)

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

An Exceedingly Brief Discussion of the Hall of Fame Eligible Pitchers

So, there aren't many pitchers worth talking about.  The no-brain candidates have already been ushered in, and we're still waiting on some of the greatest pitchers to retire.  As a result, we don't have any standout candidates.  Still, 3 of the eligibles warrant some consideration.

Gregory Jefferies is 3rd among all pitchers in saves at 507.  When you consider that he's over 100 saves behind Jerome Patrick and has a pretty pedestrian ERA and WHIP, you realize he isn't really worth voting for.

David Larson had a pretty good career, and his ERA and WHIP are pretty impressive considering the era he pitched in.  Still, if Jerome Turner didn't make it, even having won a Cy Young and a Fireman of the Year, I'm not voting for a very good pitcher like Larson.

Danys Guzman has won a Cy Young.  He also anchored the staff for a couple of world champs.  His 3.71 ERA and 1.25 WHIP are really strong numbers, but he only won 197 games, and elbow and shoulder injuries diminished his effectiveness as he entered his mid-30s.  I might vote for him, but I don't think he'll get the votes this season, and his window of opportunity is pretty narrow, as guys like Leo Mackowiak and Hersh Knight are going to retire soon.

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Hall of Fame S26: Part II: Position Player Odds & Ends

Beyond the top tier of eligibles, there are some other interesting Hall cases to look at.  For reference, let's look at the scoring.  Without going into as much detail about my methodology as I have in past previews, I dole out points based on whether a player is in the career top 20 among eligibles in statistical categories and for player awards won.  A look at the position players and their scores:

1) A. Tarasco, 4296 pts
2) A. Cordero, 4057 pts
3) Happy Moore, 3383 pts
4) Felipe Rodriguez, 3104 pts
5) H. Polcovich, 3059 pts
6) R. Alicea, 2909 pts
7) S. Taylor, 2631 pts
8) E. Montanez, 2438 pts
9) D. Gwynn, 2151 pts
10) J. Moreno, 1982 pts
11) I. Santana, 1967 pts
12) Hugh Moore, 1959 pts

We've already looked at some of these guys, but I think a couple more bear discussing.

Fourth on our list is Felipe Rodriguez, who was a star at 2b and 3b before eventually moving out to left field late in his career.  Rodriguez has the most runs scored of any eligible at 1902, and the 5th most hits at 2594.  The 7-time All-Star might warrant consideration in the future, but there are a few guys in line ahead of him.

I'm always puzzled about Horace Polcovich.  How can a 2-time MVP with 550 career home runs not make the cut?  Of course, he really only had 8 strong seasons between his career's slow start and it's abrupt end.  And while he won a Gold Glove at first, he wasn't good enough to play any other position.  And perhaps most shocking, Polcovich had exactly 1 playoff AB--with Hartford in S18.  If the guy had actually carried a team to the playoffs, I might overlook his lack of longevity, but as much as I love an MVP winner, I have a hard time voting this guy in.

I like Alicea, Taylor and Montanez a lot.  Not quite Hall-worthy here I don't think, though note that Taylor stacks up very favorably when compared to Hall of Fame shortstop Rafael Cedeno.

As I've noted before, Don Gwynn deserves serious consideration given that he was a catcher.  Gerald Bradley and Pedro Arroyo will soon be retiring though, and those guys are a cut above at the position.

Finally, I hope Juan Moreno gets some votes.  Not many guys have hit over 400 HR and stolen over 300 bases, and Moreno's .406 OBP and .992 OPS are especially outstanding when you realize he didn't get his first full season in until S10.  Plus, he was a key ingredient for a couple of world champions, posting playoff OPSs over 1.000 for Texas in S12 and Hartford in S22.


























































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































Wednesday, December 19, 2012

The S26 Hall of Fame Candidates Preview

This year's Hall of Fame debate looks to be interesting more because of who isn't in the running than who is.  With Banjo Melhuse and Chili Olsen achieving election over the last two seasons, there might not be a clear Hall of Famer in this year's crop of candidates.

Alan O'Malley and Jerome Turner would be primed for strong runs at election, except they're no longer eligible until the WifS Veterans' Committee sneaks them in through the backdoor.

So, this year's nominee class might not have the kind of star power of seasons past.  It does, however, have the seeds of some interesting debates.  To wit...

1) Is Andres Tarasco a Hall of Famer?
Tarasco became the third player to rack up 3,000 hits.  He slugged 602 HRs and drove in 1859 runs in his career (both 2nd among the eligibles).  The 8-time All Star also won 6 Silver Sluggers, and he wasn't just another plodding 1b/DH type, putting in time at SS, CF, 2b and 3b over his career.  The argument against his election?  His OBP and SLG aren't terribly impressive.  His career numbers are largely a function of a long career with very good teams.  Still, those All-Star selections and Silver Sluggers were well deserved--at the positions he played, he was routinely the best in his league.  Alan O'Malley was probably a better candidate (after all, the guy did win an MVP award), but I don't have any qualms about electing Andres Tarasco (not to be confused with Tony Tarasco, who, while a dangerous hitter, was a plodding 1b/DH type who doesn't quite have the numbers to justify his election).

2) Well, then what about Alex Cordero?
Cordero has plenty of backers, who can point to his 9 All Star appearances and 643 career steals as evidence of his worthiness.  It would've been nice to see him tally some more hits and bump that batting average up just a smidge, but the guy was a dynamic player and was one of the best LF/1b for a decade.  He's a challenging guy to size up, because he played in an era of the power hitter, which makes his accomplishments look less impressive, but he also played in the era of easy base-stealing, thus artificially inflating his value.  I tend to like to see guys rewarded for All Star appearances and Silver Sluggers, despite the imperfections in how they're awarded (e.g. Carlos Johnson getting robbed of the All-Star nod in Season 14 based solely on his horrendous defense).  I might change my mind on which side of borderline Cordero sits, but for now I'll vote for him.

3) Wait, haven't you forgotten about Ivan Santana?  728 home runs, dude...
Ho ho--interesting you should bring up Santana.  According to my rating system, which as I've mentioned in the past is perhaps a bit heavily tilted towards award-winners, Santana isn't even a top 10 candidate.  And that's just among the hitters!  Well, this is a case where I take my own system with a grain of salt.  For whatever reason, Santana only made the All-Star team twice, and never won the MVP.  First base tends to be stacked with potent hitters, and Santana's BA and OBP were looked down upon by the selection engine.  Worse, his Austin teams were generally not contenders, and he tended to be passed over for guys who took their teams to the playoffs (see Season 14).  And those few times Austin did make it were forgettable--Santana's career playoff OPS in 97 AB?  .585

And yet, you cannot ignore the HR and RBI totals.  I think I have to vote for him.

4) Admit it, you're going to vote for Happy Moore, aren't you?
Yes I am (after all, I'll argue that getting Happy with the 28th pick in the first or second season we were allowed to set our own draft order was the greatest draft day steal in Morgan history)--and let me make the case for why you should, too.  Moore's 4 All Stars and 3 Silver Sluggers are respectable, even if they don't immediately scream Hall of Famer.  However, buoyed by an insane career slugging percentage of .616, Happy has the 3rd best OPS of the eligibles--exceeded only by Hugh Moore and Norm Freeman, each of whom had short careers and played in the liveliest days of the lively ball era.  And unlike Santana, Moore's playoff OPS was .998, as he was a driving force behind Hartford's championship runs in S9 and S11.

Additionally, Happy Moore produced two of the greatest hitting seasons of all-time.  He's among the very few players to post a season OPS over 1.250, and he did it twice.  In S8, Moore's first full season in the majors, he made his presence felt by hitting .394 (2nd highest of all-time behind Rusty Jones' .405 in S5), with a .460 OBP and .797 SLG.  He might have hit more than his 51 HR and 135 RBI, but Hartford tried to limit his playing time to conserve him for the post-season.  In S14, Moore took the MVP with a .377 BA, .447 OBP and .831 SLG (the latter the third best of all-time, behind only Doug Connelly's unreachable .919 in S2, and Carlos Johnson's .883 in S8).  With teammate Carlos Johnson on the decline, Moore put that Hartford club on his shoulders, bringing them all the way to the NLDS.

According to my ratings, Moore ranks 3rd behind Tarasco and Cordero, with 3383 points to Tarasco's 4296 and Cordero's 4057.

Stay tuned for Parts 2 & 3, in which I assess the other hitters who you can make intriguing cases for, and the pitchers, for whom no interesting case can be made.

Monday, November 26, 2012

NL & AL Final Power Rankings

AL Power  Rankings: Preseason ( )

1. Vancouver 103-59 (1)
Seed #2
Playoff Power Rank #1

2. Milwaukee 106-56 (4)
Seed #1
Playoff Power Rank #3

3.. Norfolk 98-64 (2)
Seed #3
Playoff Power Rank #6

4. Honolulu 100-62 (5)
Seed #5
Playoff Power Rank #7

5. Charlotte 85-77 (7)
Seed #4
Playoff Power Rank #9

6. Richmond 85-77 (12)

7. Columbus 88-74 (3)
Seed #6
Playoff Power Rank #12

8. San Franisco 79-83 (10)

9. Dover 77-85 (11)

10. Indianapolis 72-90 (13)

11. Syracuse 78-84 (9)

12. Little Rock 59-103 (15)

13. Fresno 65-97 (8)

14. Louisville 72-90 (6)

15. Cincinnati 72-90 (16)

16. Monterrey 65-97 (14)

NL Power Rankings:  Preseason ()

1. Arizona 109-53 (2)
Seed #1
Playoff Power Rank #2

2. Tampa 105-57 (6)
Seed #3
Playoff Power Rank #4

3. Chicago 107-55 (9)
Seed #2
Playoff Power Rank #5

4. Toronto 100-62 (1)
Seed #5
Playoff Power Rank #8

5. Scottsdale 87-75 (5)
Seed #6
Playoff Power Rank #10

6. Kansas City 85-77 (14)
Seed #4
Playoff Power Rank #11

7. Salt Lake 76-86 (4)

8. Pawtucket 78-84 (3)

9. Colorado Springs 77-85 (12)

10. Austin 72-90 (10)

11. Trenton 71-91 (9)

12. Phildelphia 83-79 (11)

13. Hartford 63-99 (7)

14. Texas 57-105 (13)

15. Jackson 54-108 (15)

16. Burlington 64-98 (16)

Friday, November 9, 2012

NL Power Rankings

NL Power Rankings: Previous ( ) then Preseason Ranking

1. Tampa 83-37 (1) Pre-6
1st in South
NL leader- runs, wins, and era
Top 5- avg, hr, sb, obp, whip and sv
All Stars-6

2. Arizona 80-40 (2) Pre-2
1st in West
NL leader- avg, runs, obp, and sv
Top 5- hr, wins, era, whip and fielding
All Stars-6

3. Toronto 75-45 (4) Pre-1
1st in North
Top 5- avg, runs, hr, obp, wins, whip, sv, and fielding
All Stars-4

4. Chicago 75-45 (3) Pre-9
1st in North
NL leader- whip and fielding
Top 5- wins, era, and sv
All Stars-3

5. Kansas City 61-59 (7) Pre-14
2nd in East
NL leader-sb
Top 5- avg, runs, obp, and sv
All Stars-1

6. Salt Lake City 56-64 (10) Pre-4
4th in West
Top 5- era, whip and fielding
All Stars-0

7. Pawtucket 59-61 (8) Pre-3
3rd in East
Top 5- runs and sb
All Stars-1

8. Scottsdale 61-59 (5) Pre-5
2nd in West
NL leader-hr
Top 5-fielding
All Stars-4

9. Colorado Springs 59-61 (9) Pre-12
3rd in West
Top 5-hr, era, and fielding
All Stars-0

10. Austin 53-67 (14) Pre-10
2nd in South
Top 5-avg
All Stars-2

11. Phildelphia 64-56 (12) Pre-11
1st in East
Top 5-wins
All Stars-2

12. Trenton 51-69 (11) Pre-8
3rd in North
Top 5-sb
All Stars-1

13. Jackson 40-80 (15) Pre-15
4th in South
Top 5-sb
All Stars-0

14. Hartford 47-73 (9) Pre-7
4th in East
Top 5-obp
All Stars-0

15. Texas 41-79 (16) Pre-13
3rd in South
All Stars-0

16. Burlington 47-73 (13) Pre-16
4th in North
All Stars-0

Biggest Move Up:
Salt Lake City +4
Austin +4

Biggest Move Down:
Hartford -5

Current Playoff Seedings:  Previous ( )
1. Tampa (1)
2. Arizona (2)
3. Toronto (3)
4. Phildelphia (NR)
5. Chicago (5)
6. Kansas City (4)/Scottsdale (6)

AL Power Rankings

AL Power Rankings: Previous Ranking ( ) and Preseason

1. Vancouver 75-45 (1) Pre-1
1st in West
AL Leader-avg, runs, hr, obp, whip and fielding
Top 5-wins and era
All Stars-7

2. Norfolk 77-43 (3) Pre-2
1st in East
AL Leader-wins
Top 5-avg, runs, sb, obp, era and whip
All-Stars-3

3. Milwaukee 77-43 (2) Pre-4
1st in North
AL leader-wins and era
Top 5-avg, runs, obp, whip, sv and fielding
All Stars-4

4. Honolulu 75-45 (5) Pre-5
1st in West
Top 5- avg, runs, obp, wins, era and whip
All Stars-4

5. Charlotte 68-52 (8) Pre-7
1st in South
AL leader-sv
Top 5-avg, runs, sb, and wins
All Stars-1

6. Columbus 68-52 (4) Pre-3
2nd in North
Top 5- obp, wins, whip, sv and fielding
All Stars-2

7. Richmond 65-55 (7) Pre-12
2nd in South
Top 5- hr and era
All Stars-1

8. Dover 58-62 (6) Pre-11
3rd in North
Top 5- hr and fielding
All Stars-0

9. San Franisco 58-62 (9) Pre-10
3rd in West
Top 5- sv
All Stars-2

10. Cincinnati 58-62 (12) Pre-16
2nd in East
Top 5-sv
All Stars-1

11. Syracuse 57-63 (10) Pre-9
4th in North
Top 5- hr
All Stars-3

12. Fresno 48-72 (11) Pre-8
4th in West
Top 5- sb
All Stars-0

13. Indianapolis 48-72 (14) Pre-13
4th in East
All Stars-0

14. Little Rock 41-79 (13) Pre-15
4th in South
Top 5-hr and sb
All Stars-0

15. Monterrey 44-76 (16) Pre-14
3rd in South
AL leader-sb
All Stars-1

16. Louisville 51-69 (15) Pre-6
3rd in East
All Stars-0

Biggest Move Up:
Charlotte +3

Biggest Move Down:
Columbus -2
Dover -2

Current Playoff Seeds: Previous ( )
1. Norfolk (1)
2. Milwaukee (2)
3. Vancouver (5)
4. Charlotte (NR)
5. Honolulu (3)
6. Columbus (6)

Thursday, October 25, 2012

NL Mid Season Power Rankings

NL Mid Season Power Rankings: Previous Ranking ( ) then Preseason Ranking

1. Tampa 57-23 (2) Pre-6
1st in South
NL leader- avg, runs, wins and era
Top 5-hr, sb, obp, whip and sv

2. Arizona 53-27 (1) Pre-2
1st in West
NL leader-obp and sv
Top 5-avg, runs, hr, sb, wins, era, whip and fielding

3. Chicago 48-32 (5) Pre-9
2nd in North
NL leader-whip
Top 5-hr, wins, era, sv, and fielding

4. Toronto 49-30 (7) Pre-1
1st in North
Top 5-avg, runs, hr, obp, wins, era and sv

5. Scottsdale 46-33 (4) Pre-5
2nd in West
NL leader- hr and fielding
Top 5- avg, wins. and whip

6. Colorado Springs 43-36 (3) Pre-12
3rd in West
Top 5-era, whip and fielding

7. Kansas City 42-37 (8) Pre-14
1st in East
NL leader-sb
Top 5- avg, runs, obp, and sv

8. Pawtucket 36-43 (11) Pre-3
3rd in East
Top 5-runs and sb

9. Hartford 31-49 (9) Pre-7
4th in East
Top 5-hr and obp

10. Salt Lake City 34-46 (13) Pre-4
4th in West

11. Trenton 37-43 (6) Pre-8
3rd in North

12. Phildelphia 37-42 (15) Pre-11
2nd in East
Top 5- fielding

13. Burlington 30-50 (10) Pre-16
4th in North
Top 5- whip

14. Austin 30-50 (14) Pre-10
2nd in South

15. Jackson 28-51 (12) Pre-15
3rd in South
Top 5-sb

16. Texas 27-52 (16) Pre-13
4th in South


Biggest Move Up:
Toronto +3
Pawucket +3
Salt Lake +3
Phildelphia +3

Biggest Move Down:
Trenton -5

Current Playoff Seedings:
1. Tampa
2. Arizona
3. Toronto
4. Kansas City
5. Chicago
6. Scottsdale

AL Mid Season Power Rankings

AL Mid Season Power Rankings: Previous Ranking ( ) then Preseason Ranking

1. Vancouver 46-33 (1)  Pre-1
2nd in West
AL Leader in avg, obp, whip and fielding
Top 5-runs, hrs, wins, era

2. Milwaukee 50-30 (2) Pre-4
1st in North
AL Leader in era
Top 5-avg, runs, wins, whip,sv, and fielding

3. Norfolk 52-27 (3) Pre-2
1st in East
AL Leader in wins and whip
Top 5-avg, sb, obp, and era

4. Columbus 46-34 (6) Pre-3
2nd in North
AL leader in sv
Top 5- avg, obp, wins, whip and fielding

5. Honolulu 50-30 (7) Pre-5
1st in West
AL leader in runs
Top 5- obp, wins, era, whip and fielding

6. Dover 42-38 (13) Pre-11
3rd in North
Top 5-avg, runs, hr, sb, and fielding

7. Richmond 44-36 (5) Pre-12
1st in South
Top 5-hr, obp, and era

8. Charlotte 43-36 (9) Pre-7
2nd in South
Top 5- runs, sb, and sv

9. San Franisco 41-39 (4) Pre-10
3rd in West
Top 5- sv

10. Syracuse 39-40 (11) Pre-9
4th in North
AL leader-hr

11.Fresno 31-48 (8) Pre-8
4th in West

12. Cincinnnati 37-43 (12) Pre-16
2nd in East
Top 5-avg and sv

13. Little Rock 29-51 (16) Pre-15
3rd in South
AL leader-hr
Top 5- sb

14. Indianapolis 34-45 (10) Pre-13
3rd in East

15. Louisville 33-46 (14) Pre-6
4th in East

16. Monterrey 27-52 (15) Pre-14
4th in South
AL leader-sb

Biggest Move Up:
Dover +7

Biggest Move Down:
San Franisco-5

Current Playoff Seeding:
1. Norfolk
2. Milwaukee
3. Honolulu
4. Richmond
5. Vancouver
6. Columbus

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

NL Quarter Power Rankings

NL Power Rankings: Preseason Rankings in ( )

1. Arizona 28-11 (2)
1st Place in West
NL Leader in Avg, OBP, wins, and sv
Top 5 in runs, hrs, ERA and WHIP
2. Tampa 25-14 (6)
1st Place in South
NL Leader in ERA
Top 5 in sb, wins and sv
3. Colorado Springs 26-13 (12)
2nd Place in West
Top 5 in hrs, wins, ERA, WHIP, and sv
4. Scottsdale 23-16 (5)
3rd Place in West
NL Leader in hrs
Top 5 in Avg, runs, ERA, WHIP, and fielding
5. Chicago 24-15 (9)
1st Place in North
Top 5 in OBP, wins, ERA, WHIP, and fielding
6. Trenton 18-21 (8)
3rd Place in North
Top 5 in Avg, OBP, runs, and sb
7. Toronto 23-16 (1)
2nd Place in North
Top 5 in Avg, runs, hrs, and wins
8. Kansas City 18-21 (14)
2nd Place in East
NL Leader in runs and sb
Top 5 in Avg and OBP
9. Hartford 19-20 (7)
1st Place in East
Top 5 in OBP, runs and hr
10. Burlington 18-21 (16)
3rd Place in North
NL Leader in fielding
Top 5 in sv
11. Pawucket 18-21 (3)
3rd Place in East
Top 5 in sb and sv
12. Jackson 17-22 (15)
2nd Place in South
NL Leader in WHIP
Top 5 in sb
13. Salt Lake City 12-27 (4)
4th Place in West
Top 5 in fielding
14. Austin 14-25 (10)
3rd Place in South
15. Phildelphia 17-22 (11)
3rd Place in East
Top 5 in fielding
16. Texas 13-26 (13)
4th Place in South

Biggest Move UP:
Colorado Springs +9
Kansas City +6
Burlington +6

Biggest Move Down:
Salt Lake City -9
Pawucket -8
Toronto -6

Current Playoff Seedings:
1. Arizona
2. Tampa
3. Chicago
4. Hartford
5. Colorado Springs
6. Scottsdale

AL Quarter Power Rankings

AL Power Rankings: Pre Season Rankings in ( )

1. Vancouver  23-16 (1)
3rd Place in West
AL Leader in Avg, runs, whip, and fielding
AL 5 Top in OBP, hrs, wins, sv
2. Milwaukee 28-11 (4)
1st Place in North
AL Leader in Wins
Top5 in Avg, OBP, runs, hrs, ERA, sv and fielding
3. Norfolk 28-11 (2)
1st Place in East
AL Leader in Wins and OBP
Top 5 in Avg, runs, sb, ERA, WHIP and fielding
4. San Fransico 24-15 (10)
1st Place in West
AL Leader in SV
Top 5 in Avg, hr, sb, wins, and ERA
5. Richmond 23-16 (12)
1st Place in South
AL Leader in hr
Top 5 in runs, ERA, WHIP, and sv
6. Columbus 21-18 (3)
2nd Place in North
Top 5 in Avg, OBP, WHIP, sv and fielding
7. Honolulu 24-15 (5)
1st Place in West
AL Leader in ERA
Top 5 in OBP, runs, wins, WHIP and fielding
8. Fresno 15-24 (8)
4th Place in West
9. Charlotte 19-20 (7)
2nd Place in South
10. Indianapolis 16-23 (13)
4th Place in East
Top 5 in sb
11. Syracuse 19-20 (9)
3rd Place in North
Top 5 in hr
12.Cincinnati 17-22 (16)
2nd Place in East
13. Dover 15-24 (11)
4th Place in North
14. Louisville 17-22 (6)
2nd Place in East
15. Monterrey 13-26 (14)
3rd Place in South
AL Leader in sb
16. Little Rock 10-29 (15)
4th Place in South
Top 5 in sb

Biggest Move UP:
Richmond +7
San Franisco +6

Biggest Move Down:
Louisville -8

Current Playoff Seeds:
1. Norfolk
2. Milwaukee
3. San Franisco
4. Richmond
5. Honolulu
6. Vancouver

Monday, October 8, 2012

NL Pre Season Power Rankings

NL Power Rankings:

1. Toronto
2. Arizona
3. Pawtucket
4. Salt Lake
5. Scottsdale
6. Tampa
7. Hartford
8. Trenton
9. Chicago
10. Austin
11. Phildelphia
12. Colorado Springs
13. Texas
14. Kansas City
15. Jackson
16. Burlington

AL Pre Season Power Rankings

American Power Rankings:
1. Vancouver
2. Norfolk
3. Columbus
4. Milwaukee
5. Honolulu
6. Louisville
7. Charlotte
8. Fresno
9. Syracuse
10. San Franisco
11. Dover
12. Richmond
13. Indy
14. Monterrey
15. Little Rock
16. Cincinnati

Sunday, September 9, 2012

The Next Wave of Starters (Signees for S22-24)

From the most cavernous stadium to the coziest bandbox, no position can make or break a championship contender like the starting rotation.

Taking a look solely at the current value of starter prospects brought in over the last 3 seasons, I've dug up 26 guys who might make a serious impact for some contender in the near future.

1) Lee Tillman (Salt Lake City) dominated minor league hitters, and at 23, the #1 pick in the S22 draft will get his first full season of major league experience.  Tillman's combination of control, finesse, and velocity held opponents to a .592 OPS in 71 starts in the minors, and makes him a strong contender for NL Rookie of the Year.
2) O.T. Martin (Honolulu) has already made an impact on the big league stage.  Last year's AL Rookie of the Year was a critical ingredient in Honolulu's success.  The Wyoming native was 13-9 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.20 WHIP for the Oahuans, using his change up and sinker to great effect.
3) Rico Toca (Norfolk) is the best representative of what's really been a lackluster 3 years for international starting pitching.  Year after year, teams slash payroll to arm themselves for the dogfights of the foreign signee market, and they've gone home largely disappointed of late.  This 21 year old Venezuelan lefty is a notable exception--he's a legitimate 4-pitch pitcher who's averaged better than a strikeout an inning and held opponents to a .284 OBP.  He may surrender some longballs when faced with ML hitters, but he still looks well-equipped for success in the show.
4) Magglio Nunez (Chicago) isn't a sure thing to work out as a starting pitcher--he doesn't have the greatest stamina, his ability to stay healthy isn't a sure thing, and he'll need to get better at getting lefties out.  Still, he keeps the ball over the plate and down in the zone.  His ratings look pretty good in most areas, but I'm just not convinced he's got the finesse to avoid getting hit hard, no matter how good his control and velocity are.
5) Alex Gallardo (Charlotte) might be in the mold of a Jermaine Knepper.  Throws hard, keeps it down, works the corners--the only concern is that his stuff ranges from ordinary to useless.  Quit throwing that cutter!
6) Jesus Gabriel (Honolulu) got knocked around pretty good in his rookie season, but the Dominican and his mustache are still young (he was just 20 last year!) and could become a serious workhorse for the HHHs.
7) Ed Winchester (Indianapolis) handled Hi-A easily as a 19 year old, going 8-3 with a 1.35 ERA in 30 starts.  Winchester relies on an impressive screwball to get hitters out, and has posted strong strikeout numbers so far.
8) William Dimaggio (Toronto) might not have the stamina to be a big league starter, but any team in the league would be eager to find a role for this guy on their staff.  The 6'6" lefty has dominated the low minors with a 1.59 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and a K/BB ratio over 4:1. 

Very honorable, if not deserving of lengthy mention:
9) Francisco Matos (Philadelphia)
10) Terry Ferrell (Trenton)
11) Alan Carey (Pawtucket)
12) Peter French (Philadelphia)
13) Rudy Carey (San Francisco)
14) Thomas Stroud (Jackson)
15) Elrod Darr (Little Rock)
16) Mark Bravo (Monterrey)
17) Hong-Chih Matsumoto (Salt Lake City)
18) Frank Robinson (Chicago)
19) Wilfredo Pinzon (Dover)
20) Buddy Powell (Philadelphia)
21) Mark Post (Burlington)
22) Patrick Bonham (Kansas City)
23) Theodore Fox (Jackson)
24) Chuck Bryant (Hartford)
25) Vince Thomas (Columbus)
26) Santiago James (Texas)

Monday, September 3, 2012

Top 10 Suggestions For New Owners

1.  Get a mentor (or several) outside this world to ask questions to.  Forums >> scroll to Hardball Dynasty section >> click Hardball Dynasty forum >> mentors list is the 3rd post down.

2.  Ask questions in the World Chat here...you'll tend to get several opinions plus some of the logic behind what people are advising.

3.  A good way to get some sense of what the ratings "mean" (in addition to seeing what stats a player has produced) is to see what players with comparable ratings  have done.  World Office >> Reports >> Player Search >> set Franchise to "All Franchises", level to ML, View to Current Ratings and Position to whatever position the player you're looking at plays.  That gives you a list of all the players on ML rosters at that position...convenient way to compare ratings and stats of players (note that ballparks can have a pretty severe effect on what stats players produce).

4.  Please be cautious about trading until you've played at least a couple of seasons.  There's no faster way to wreck a franchise (well, maybe you can do it as fast in free agency) than to fire off several trades before you really know what the ratings mean.

5.  Pre-season (the period from the start of the season to Spring Training) moves pretty fast and can be overwhelming.  If you're not sure what things you need to do on each of these days, ask questions.

6.  Of the documentation HBD offers, I find the most helpful item to be the Help FAQ.  Admin Office >> Help >>F.A.Q.

7.  When I got started, one of the hardest things for me to figure out was what to offer free agents and how to "read" the free agent market.  Ask off-world mentors about this one...I'll plan to do a complete post or page on this topic as well.

8.  As much as you possibly can, try to ignore the OVR rating.  Here's the distinction you need to understand:  OVR is a composite of a bunch of the other ratings but it does absolutely nothing to determine performance of any kind.  A hitter's power rating, for example, is a big factor in home run production.  A pitcher's control rating goes a long way to determining how many walks he issues.  OVR isn't like that...it takes a bunch of ratings (including things like stamina, durability and health) and combines them into one rating that's an overgeneralized guide to a player's overall "value".  Trust me on this one, when veteran HBD owners are looking for a reliever who can give them 120+ innings and be a reliable, around 3.00 ERA guy, they're not paying any attention to OVR.

9.  What ratings are important and which ones aren't?  You'll get a lot of opinions on that one.  All the ratings have meaning...they all interact to produce AB-by-AB results and an overall stat profile.  Don't get locked in on one rating in your evaluation.  For a long time I was over-focused on pitchers' vR.  I figured it was more important than the vL and I couldn't understand what the pitch ratings meant.  So I ended up with a bunch of P's with vR's in the 80's (very good) but vL's and pitches in the 50's (not very good)...with lousy results.

10.  Above all, have fun.  Ignore all the above if they don't fit your idea of fun.  If you can't do HDB your way, what's the point?


Saturday, February 11, 2012

Epilogue: My Votes

This year I really think we have at least 4 guys whose induction should be a certainty, and I will be voting for 5 players.

  • Carlos Johnson
  • Chili Olsen
  • Clint Hutton
  • Jerome Patrick
  • Jerome Turner

Friday, February 10, 2012

Season 23 Hall of Fame preview: Part 3

The Pitchers

Morgan World was dominated by offense for the first 15 or so years of its existence. As a result, only Earl Wilkerson and Vitas Sobkowiak have made the Hall thus far. Those two were standout stars for strong Vancouver teams, which helped them put up the kind of numbers and awards that made them complete locks for induction.

In part because Banjo Melhuse hasn't expressed much interest in retiring, and many of the best arms in league history still have some years ahead of them, there haven't been a whole lot of serious candidates for voters to consider.

Closing In
There's one pitcher who should walk right into the Hall. Jerome Patrick is a 6-time Fireman of the Year, closed for 3 World Series champs...the guy is our Mariano Rivera. 630 saves--he should be a lock [Note: I had to re-write most of this article when the internet ate it, so I figured listing out all of Patrick's accomplishments were unnecessary. Though, note that I think this guy went to a record twelve All-Star Games!]

What Else Is Left?
I think this is the year to throw votes behind Jerome Turner. I know, his totals aren't super-impressive, and that no one could really decide whether he was a starter or a closer. Still, let's start building his case by comparing Turner's six years as a dedicated starter to the six best years (by WHIP) of Virgil Quinn, the wins leader among retirees and Morgan's version of Jack Morris--a very good pitcher who won games but doesn't have the kind of impressive rate stats to make a case for anything more than borderline HOF consideration:

Turner: avg. W-L = 13.5-7 (.659 W%), 3.78 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.93 K/9
Quinn: avg. W-L = 15.5-8.3 (.651 W%), 4.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6.10 K/9

So, even cherry-picking Quinn's best years as a starter, Turner comes out ahead. And while Turner was never a closer on the same level as Patrick, he was successful in 83.8% of his save opportunities, which is pretty solid. The guy went to 7 All-Star games and won a Cy Young, a Fireman of the Year, a Gold Glove and a World Series ring. And his strikeout rate, FIP, ERA, and WHIP are all near the top all-time.

I'll admit to a soft spot for Turner. The guy just always seemed to beat me when we faced off, his teams won a lot of games and he excelled in every role his teams plugged him into. With the emergence of a lot of excellent pitchers in Morgan, maybe Turner's accomplishments just don't measure up, but I think my 5th vote probably goes to him.

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Season 23 Hall of Fame preview: Part 2

Underrating the Hit King
While I think my system gives a pretty good rough evaluation of Hall-worthiness, I must admit that the points it gives to MVP winners are quite generous. The upside is that guys are rewarded for being acknowledged as the best position player in a given year. The downside is that guys who had amazing years and amazing careers but never put up big power numbers often were ignored by the sim nominators, and miss out. Such is the case with Chili Olsen, who was a 9-time All-Star and a 5-time Silver Slugger. And then there's his most noteworthy accomplishment--racking up 3,473 hits, more than anyone in Morgan history. The 12th pick in Season 1's draft far surpassed any other member of that class, yet he never won a title.

The takeaway? Olsen may have finished well behind Johnson and Hutton according to my numbers, but he's still among the 3 no-brainer nominees.

Or Should It Have Been 4 No-Brainers?
Eric Thomas actually finishes ahead of Olsen in points. Thomas managed to win 3 rings playing for superior teams, and his steroid-era-fueled OBP and SLG% would put him just ahead if he were still eligible. The big knock on Thomas was that he was a career DH. In my opinion, the anti-DH bias is a little silly. If he'd played barely passable 1B for an NL team, would he suddenly have been a HOF lock? Thomas always felt like a guy who was going to be a borderline case, but my gut still says the guy should have made it.

Speaking Of Borderline
Two guys make a compelling case that they might deserve your votes. Alex Cordero The LF/1B posted 2,474 hits, scored 1,783 runs, and swiped 643 bases--one of five HOF candidates with over 600 steals. Cordero backers can also point to his pair of championship rings, 7 All-Star appearances, and 3 Gold Gloves at 1B.

Alan O'Malley has seen his share of support in past votes. It seems like every year, O'Malley looks like the 4th or 5th or 6th best guy on the ballot. Note that O'Malley is listed as a DH on the ballot, but actually played almost exclusively at 2B. He won an MVP award and was a familiar face on the awards page. His career stat lines aren't bad, but they don't quite make him a top tier candidate.

Both of these guys warrant consideration, but I'm not sure there are enough votes out there to send more than three hitters to the Hall this year. I'm not certain about this, but O'Malley might be running out of chances pretty soon.

At Least People Will Recognize Them At Card Shows
The guys on the outside looking in? Start with 2-time MVP Horace Polcovich, whose prime was just too short, and whose career went off the tracks when I grabbed him off of waivers and then sent him down to the minors as part of a youth movement in Hartford.

Steve Taylor was a fine player, and benefits from having played a lot of games--including several All-Star games--at SS. Maybe next year he'll have a shot at building some buzz around his candidacy. Same could be said about Esteban Montanez.

Donn Gwynn could make a compelling case for the HOF because he was the best catcher in the game for a few years and put up decent numbers over his career. I was thinking of endorsing him, until I realized that we're just a few years away from the retirements of Gerald Bradley and Pedro Arroyo, who are clearly the greatest catchers Morgan has produced, and are far more deserving of induction.

Season 23 Hall of Fame preview: Part 1

It's been a little while since I've come out with one of these posts dictating who you should vote for, so it seemed about time for another lesson. And frankly, after Derrick Flynn and Tim Durbin get voted in in Season 21, yet 5-time MVP Clint Hutton can't get the votes last year, you guys need my help.

First, let's have a moment of silence for Eric Thomas, whose Hall of Fame eligibility is all used up. Until they code a veterans' committee who can sneak him in the back door, anyway. More on Thomas later...

One more thing--unlike years past, I didn't obsessively scan through every player who rated in the top 20 among retirees in some stat category. Based on the candidates up for consideration, I felt ok if I missed out on some guy who flew under the radar and could make a case that he'd be worth voting for if you had 8 votes instead of 5. Also note that when I look at a player's career ranking in any statistical category, I'm always looking at his ranking among retirees who aren't already in the Hall of Fame. Just makes life so much easier, and it still feels like a reliable measure of how a player's career numbers should be valued.

The Candidates, please:

The Greatest Hitter Who Ever Simmed
Forgive me my bias. Carlos Johnson is the best hitter Morgan World has produced. Yes, he played much of his career in a juiced-up offensive era, and his home games were in Hartford's band box. He was also a complete mess in left field (his 84 errors and 88 bad plays are records for the position).

But he was the most intimidating, the most hyped, and the most decorated offensive player ever. Johnson has the all time records for runs, homers, RBI, and OPS. He's second to Chili Olsen in hits with 3000. Second to Rusty Jones in OBP. He's second in intentional walks. 5 MVPs, a pair of World Series rings, a ROY, a truckload of Silver Sluggers, All Star appearances, All Star MVPs, Home Run Derby wins...

For his first ten seasons in Morgan, he was dominant, but he remained a tough out well into his mid-to-late-30s.
Season 15, when Johnson was 34, seems to be where HBD's steroid era came to an end. Even so, at an age where most hitters are looking for employment, Johnson was still getting on base and piling up records.

The Injustice
People can be forgiven for forgetting how good Clint Hutton was. Unlike Johnson, he never got a crack at a championship, and his career was pretty much done after turning 35. But while his counting numbers don't immediately scream Hall of Fame, this guy was intentionally walked more than any other player in Morgan's history. His 9.77 RC/27 ranks 5th all-time. He won the MVP 5 times. He went to 8 All-Star games and won 8 Silver Sluggers. Unlike Johnson, he was an above-average corner outfielder, and he ranks 20th among retirees with 283 stolen bases (vs. Johnson's 0). He should have been a unanimous first ballot selection. Shame on us.