Saturday, February 11, 2012

Epilogue: My Votes

This year I really think we have at least 4 guys whose induction should be a certainty, and I will be voting for 5 players.

  • Carlos Johnson
  • Chili Olsen
  • Clint Hutton
  • Jerome Patrick
  • Jerome Turner

Friday, February 10, 2012

Season 23 Hall of Fame preview: Part 3

The Pitchers

Morgan World was dominated by offense for the first 15 or so years of its existence. As a result, only Earl Wilkerson and Vitas Sobkowiak have made the Hall thus far. Those two were standout stars for strong Vancouver teams, which helped them put up the kind of numbers and awards that made them complete locks for induction.

In part because Banjo Melhuse hasn't expressed much interest in retiring, and many of the best arms in league history still have some years ahead of them, there haven't been a whole lot of serious candidates for voters to consider.

Closing In
There's one pitcher who should walk right into the Hall. Jerome Patrick is a 6-time Fireman of the Year, closed for 3 World Series champs...the guy is our Mariano Rivera. 630 saves--he should be a lock [Note: I had to re-write most of this article when the internet ate it, so I figured listing out all of Patrick's accomplishments were unnecessary. Though, note that I think this guy went to a record twelve All-Star Games!]

What Else Is Left?
I think this is the year to throw votes behind Jerome Turner. I know, his totals aren't super-impressive, and that no one could really decide whether he was a starter or a closer. Still, let's start building his case by comparing Turner's six years as a dedicated starter to the six best years (by WHIP) of Virgil Quinn, the wins leader among retirees and Morgan's version of Jack Morris--a very good pitcher who won games but doesn't have the kind of impressive rate stats to make a case for anything more than borderline HOF consideration:

Turner: avg. W-L = 13.5-7 (.659 W%), 3.78 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.93 K/9
Quinn: avg. W-L = 15.5-8.3 (.651 W%), 4.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6.10 K/9

So, even cherry-picking Quinn's best years as a starter, Turner comes out ahead. And while Turner was never a closer on the same level as Patrick, he was successful in 83.8% of his save opportunities, which is pretty solid. The guy went to 7 All-Star games and won a Cy Young, a Fireman of the Year, a Gold Glove and a World Series ring. And his strikeout rate, FIP, ERA, and WHIP are all near the top all-time.

I'll admit to a soft spot for Turner. The guy just always seemed to beat me when we faced off, his teams won a lot of games and he excelled in every role his teams plugged him into. With the emergence of a lot of excellent pitchers in Morgan, maybe Turner's accomplishments just don't measure up, but I think my 5th vote probably goes to him.

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Season 23 Hall of Fame preview: Part 2

Underrating the Hit King
While I think my system gives a pretty good rough evaluation of Hall-worthiness, I must admit that the points it gives to MVP winners are quite generous. The upside is that guys are rewarded for being acknowledged as the best position player in a given year. The downside is that guys who had amazing years and amazing careers but never put up big power numbers often were ignored by the sim nominators, and miss out. Such is the case with Chili Olsen, who was a 9-time All-Star and a 5-time Silver Slugger. And then there's his most noteworthy accomplishment--racking up 3,473 hits, more than anyone in Morgan history. The 12th pick in Season 1's draft far surpassed any other member of that class, yet he never won a title.

The takeaway? Olsen may have finished well behind Johnson and Hutton according to my numbers, but he's still among the 3 no-brainer nominees.

Or Should It Have Been 4 No-Brainers?
Eric Thomas actually finishes ahead of Olsen in points. Thomas managed to win 3 rings playing for superior teams, and his steroid-era-fueled OBP and SLG% would put him just ahead if he were still eligible. The big knock on Thomas was that he was a career DH. In my opinion, the anti-DH bias is a little silly. If he'd played barely passable 1B for an NL team, would he suddenly have been a HOF lock? Thomas always felt like a guy who was going to be a borderline case, but my gut still says the guy should have made it.

Speaking Of Borderline
Two guys make a compelling case that they might deserve your votes. Alex Cordero The LF/1B posted 2,474 hits, scored 1,783 runs, and swiped 643 bases--one of five HOF candidates with over 600 steals. Cordero backers can also point to his pair of championship rings, 7 All-Star appearances, and 3 Gold Gloves at 1B.

Alan O'Malley has seen his share of support in past votes. It seems like every year, O'Malley looks like the 4th or 5th or 6th best guy on the ballot. Note that O'Malley is listed as a DH on the ballot, but actually played almost exclusively at 2B. He won an MVP award and was a familiar face on the awards page. His career stat lines aren't bad, but they don't quite make him a top tier candidate.

Both of these guys warrant consideration, but I'm not sure there are enough votes out there to send more than three hitters to the Hall this year. I'm not certain about this, but O'Malley might be running out of chances pretty soon.

At Least People Will Recognize Them At Card Shows
The guys on the outside looking in? Start with 2-time MVP Horace Polcovich, whose prime was just too short, and whose career went off the tracks when I grabbed him off of waivers and then sent him down to the minors as part of a youth movement in Hartford.

Steve Taylor was a fine player, and benefits from having played a lot of games--including several All-Star games--at SS. Maybe next year he'll have a shot at building some buzz around his candidacy. Same could be said about Esteban Montanez.

Donn Gwynn could make a compelling case for the HOF because he was the best catcher in the game for a few years and put up decent numbers over his career. I was thinking of endorsing him, until I realized that we're just a few years away from the retirements of Gerald Bradley and Pedro Arroyo, who are clearly the greatest catchers Morgan has produced, and are far more deserving of induction.

Season 23 Hall of Fame preview: Part 1

It's been a little while since I've come out with one of these posts dictating who you should vote for, so it seemed about time for another lesson. And frankly, after Derrick Flynn and Tim Durbin get voted in in Season 21, yet 5-time MVP Clint Hutton can't get the votes last year, you guys need my help.

First, let's have a moment of silence for Eric Thomas, whose Hall of Fame eligibility is all used up. Until they code a veterans' committee who can sneak him in the back door, anyway. More on Thomas later...

One more thing--unlike years past, I didn't obsessively scan through every player who rated in the top 20 among retirees in some stat category. Based on the candidates up for consideration, I felt ok if I missed out on some guy who flew under the radar and could make a case that he'd be worth voting for if you had 8 votes instead of 5. Also note that when I look at a player's career ranking in any statistical category, I'm always looking at his ranking among retirees who aren't already in the Hall of Fame. Just makes life so much easier, and it still feels like a reliable measure of how a player's career numbers should be valued.

The Candidates, please:

The Greatest Hitter Who Ever Simmed
Forgive me my bias. Carlos Johnson is the best hitter Morgan World has produced. Yes, he played much of his career in a juiced-up offensive era, and his home games were in Hartford's band box. He was also a complete mess in left field (his 84 errors and 88 bad plays are records for the position).

But he was the most intimidating, the most hyped, and the most decorated offensive player ever. Johnson has the all time records for runs, homers, RBI, and OPS. He's second to Chili Olsen in hits with 3000. Second to Rusty Jones in OBP. He's second in intentional walks. 5 MVPs, a pair of World Series rings, a ROY, a truckload of Silver Sluggers, All Star appearances, All Star MVPs, Home Run Derby wins...

For his first ten seasons in Morgan, he was dominant, but he remained a tough out well into his mid-to-late-30s.
Season 15, when Johnson was 34, seems to be where HBD's steroid era came to an end. Even so, at an age where most hitters are looking for employment, Johnson was still getting on base and piling up records.

The Injustice
People can be forgiven for forgetting how good Clint Hutton was. Unlike Johnson, he never got a crack at a championship, and his career was pretty much done after turning 35. But while his counting numbers don't immediately scream Hall of Fame, this guy was intentionally walked more than any other player in Morgan's history. His 9.77 RC/27 ranks 5th all-time. He won the MVP 5 times. He went to 8 All-Star games and won 8 Silver Sluggers. Unlike Johnson, he was an above-average corner outfielder, and he ranks 20th among retirees with 283 stolen bases (vs. Johnson's 0). He should have been a unanimous first ballot selection. Shame on us.