Thursday, April 17, 2008

Team Stolen Base Analysis

Just a real quick and dirty analysis here, but there has been some discussion on the board about SBs being out of whack. At first glance, they may be, but let's look at this a little more in-depth.

1. Project current HBD totals through 162 games.
2. Add 2 "teams" to ML totals. I did this by averaging the totals of all ML teams and adding it to the bottom of my spreadsheet twice so that we can have as fair a comparison as possible.

HBD (162G)a - 5,518/7,416 - 74.40%
MLB (162G)b - 3,112/4,181 - 74.44%

HBD (162G)a - 1,898/7,416 - 25.60%
MLB (162G)b - 1,068/4,181 - 25.56%

HBD (162G)a - 1.06
MLB (162G)c - 0.60

HBD (162G)a - 1.43
MLB (162G)c - 0.86

a - projected
b - 2007 + 2 average teams
c - actual 2007
^ - Stolen Base Attempts

1. HBD teams are getting caught as much (on a percentage basis) as their MLB counterparts.
2. HBD teams are attempting 66% more stolen bases per game than their MLB counterparts.
3. HBD teams record 77% more stolen bases per game than their MLB counterparts.

Please let me know what you think. When I get time I may compare the top 5 MLBers to the top 5 HBDers...maybe even split it up amongst AL/NL.

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