Sunday, July 12, 2009

S13 Draft Review

My advance scouting isn’t great, but IMHO this was one of the worst drafts we’ve seen a while. I really only saw four guys in the whole draft that I thought – Wow, wish I had him on my team.
Best drafts.
Helena – Not only added the best player, but this team needed a quantity of players and they got that in later rounds. Best draft in the league.
Memphis – One of the best SPs and a solid bullpen guy.
Pawtucket – A couple of really nice SPs, both a little raw with nice upside. It’s more a surprise though if you have the first pick and don’t get on the best draft list.
Austin – An all-star middle of the order bat with the 18th pick is very good.
Oakland – Drafted a franchise star and another solid ML position player.

Anaheim – got a dominant closer in James Murphy. Two plus pitches with superior control and vR ratings. He won’t pitch 100 IPs, but good enough STA/DUR to close.
Got Darryl Romanski for letting Wes Davies walk. His defense probably isn’t good enough to be a full time C, but that huge hole in his vR rating really hurts his value.
Another good RP in Jason King.
Atlanta - A.J. Robinson is one of the more interesting guys in the draft. He could be an MVP candidate if he could get 550 ABs, but he might only get half that. One of the worst DUR ratings I’ve ever seen in a position player, but when he does play he makes an impact.
Grabbed another C with Phillip Dyer, very nice bat and good enough defensive ratings to not be a liability behind the plate.
Austin – I think Alex Sellers has a chance to put up some of the gaudiest numbers of the draft. He won’t win a batting title or get .400 OBP, but I think he’ll hit .270/50/130 and can play 2B or 3B effectively. Can’t believe he lasted until pick 18.
If Dion Dixon signs he’ll be a solid RP for this team.
Boise - Junior Olmedo is a very solid CF/2B. He would be a great leadoff or #2 hitter and a nice pickup at #20.
Lonnie Sterns is a great RP pickup in the second round. He can give you an inning plus 3-4 days a week.
Lonnie Sterns is one of the classic HBD guys that will hit .220 and hit 48 HRs if given enough ABs, some owners like these type of guys and other won’t ever play them.
Chicago – In an attempt to get every great young pitcher in the league they drafted Francis Tucker. A solid SP that says he is determined to go to college, if he signs it will be for at least $8M and possibly $10-12M range (and he’s worth it.)
Cleveland – SP Delanor Cuddyer has acceptable control and splits, but I think very nice his pitch ratings might be enough to push him over and make this guy stand out in the league.
Supplemental pick John Edwards is interesting. I don’t think his vR is good enough for the big leagues, but his control and pitch ratings are so good I might be wrong. He’d be great if the left handed specialist setting actually worked in the game.
Detroit – A great pick at 25 Will Shave might even have a better bat than the above raved about Alex Sellars. The only real downside is he’s a DH and DUR is just average.
Jo-jo Christenson is a nice looking RP with a tad low control, but should make a good LRA/LRB type guy.
Dover – can’t see un-signed first rounder. Sting Risley looks like a decent LRA type guy.
Durham – Kyle Brooks is an interesting pick. Excellent control and spilts, and two very good pitches. His STA is a tad low for an SP, but pitches 3-5 are horrible. I’m not sure how much that will affect him since he does have two nice pitches. Too bad we can’t control pitches because I would drop his last three pitches and make him a closer.
Florida – Got a very nice SP at number 20 in Adrian Selby. He’s not a #1 or #2 SP; picking in the 20s won’t ever get you that. He will be a solid SP, pitch 200+ innings, and probably a high 4’s ERA.
Fresno – I really like the first of their three 1st round picks, a good hitting 2B/CF. But Fresno hasn’t signed any picks in the first 5 rounds.
Hartford – Good SP Vance O'Neill - I would expect him to be a #2 or #3 kind of guy.
Gil Gardner isn’t bad for being a 2nd rounder, more of a back of the rotation/middle relief kind of pitcher.
Helena – The best player in the draft was picked at #3 - Sammy Cairo. If he doesn’t win an MVP at some point in his career I would be shocked. He’s could play in the majors today and do well, and about the only thing that would derail his trip to the hall of fame would be injuries.
Skeeter Aurilia is a nice little pitcher, only thing holding him back is STA/DUR combo, but he’ll pitch solid.
Kevin Burch is another really nice player, an RP that has great stuff. Again his STA/DUR combo is low, but probably good enough to be a closer.
Even Garry Saunders is a decent pick for this late in the draft.
Huntington – First pick hasn’t signed. Harry Ramirez is talented and versatile enough to make the majors, but not exactly a game changing type guy.
Louisville – a late first round pick Pablo Rodriguez is will have a good ML career. Unfortunately he doesn’t look like he can play SS at the ML level, which makes his bat less potent.
Madison – SP Pablo Rodriguez will have a good career. I see him a lot like Sting Greene.
Mike Monahan is a quality 2B with a good bat.
Memphis – Got one of the best SPs in the draft in Ricardo Cabeza. Pitching is always at a premium and Ricardo is at least the SP closest to being effective in the majors. I don’t consider him a HOF’er, but he’s a solid #1 or #2 and can pitch 220+ innings.
RP Maverick Moore was a great pickup at #61 – great stuff, but that STA/DUR is kind of low.
Minnesota – Roberto Lecuona looks more like a 3B than SS, but his bat is good enough to be a franchise player. Nice pickup at #9.
Nashville – CF Myron Clarke has a great glove and a good enough bat to eventually play in the majors. To me he still looks very raw though and has a long way to develop to make the majors and it might be 4-5 seasons before he makes the majors.
Roy Helms is another CF with a decent bat.
NY – haven’t seen them sign at significant players yet.
Oakland – At number 8 drafted a franchise player in Rickey Brantley. Great contact and power and good enough splits, his BE is a little low. I kind of see him as a Vlad Guerrero type guy. Won’t walk a bunch, but won’t strike out and will hit a ton of homers. I could see 40-50 HRs a season, but with such a high contact rating with that power that could be a conservative estimate. The most annoying thing about this guy could be his 90+ speed and 30+ base running ability. Those guys seem to end up with 35 SBs and 27 CS.
Lawrence Ellis is a nice player, but that low vR rating could keep him from being really good. Nice pick for #99.
Pawtucket – The first pick in the draft Pedro Melo was probably the SP with most upside. His control and splits just about assure him of being a very good SP. His name should be alongside that of Alex Lee, Hersh Knight, and Brett Bell. The only downside to him is his pitch ratings aren’t spectacular, but I think he will still be very good.
SP Mack Devereaux looks nice, but that control worries me a little bit.
Richmond – OF Denny Henry has interesting ratings. Power and splits are pretty average in the 50s and 60s, but he’s got such good contact and BE that he should have a great OBP.
San Diego - Ray Washington should have a nice long career in the majors. Looks to me a lot like Willie Liriano. So he’s more of a #2 or #3 kind of SP.
Also drafted a solid MIF Shane Simmons. Looks like a super utility type guy to me. I actually think that their next pick in Vinny Calderon has a better chance of being a quality starting position player.
San Juan – They had four picks from 28-53 First round holdout Gerald Duran looks to be a nice RP if he signs. Carlton Sisler was another good RP selection. They have another holdout and then the last first rounder is Len Thompson. I’m a little concerned about Len’s pitch ratings and poor STA/DUR combo. 60 IPs might be the most he can put out in a season.
Zack Enders can pitch a few more innings, but he looks like a SuB kind of pitcher.
Dennis Lo actually looks to be a decent 3B prospect.
For being such a weak draft San Juan is probably coming out with about as many ML’ers as any other team. But if Duran doesn’t sign, they could also be turning 4 first rounders and 2 second round picks into about 115 quality relief innings and a 3B that should be a good #7 hitter, which is probably less than they were hoping for.
Scottsdale - Lou Raggio looks to me one of the best RPs taken in the draft. The only real concern I have of him is his low GB/FB ratio. I usually don’t concern myself much with that rating, but in a place like Scottsdale it can be problematic.
St. Louis – Not only was this draft weak, but SS’s that could field seems very sparse. Marino Nieto is about the only quality fielding SS that also had a very good bat available in the draft.
Gerald Dunham looks like an above average bat that can play 2B.
Syracuse – hasn’t signed any significant players.
Tampa Bay – Adam Andrews looks like he could be an all-star SP, but he hasn’t decided yet if he is going to sign.
Texas – looks to have a gold glove type CF/2B in Juan Cairo with a solid bat.
Toronto – Grabbed SP Julio Manzanillo, who should have a long solid if unspectacular career in HBD.
Blaine Nen is probably the best defensive SS with any semblance of a ML bat and even that is just because he has a good vR and BE rating. His glove is still very raw, but has potential.
Vancouver - Ignacio Martinez could be a really good 4th OF or Backup 1B.

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