Friday, September 14, 2007
Season 6 Predictions
AL North
Minnesota x3
Chicago x2
AL East
NY x3
DC x2
AL South
Texas x2
Santa Fe
OK City
Mem
AL West
Scottsdale x4
Salem
Wildcard
Chicago
Salem
Indy
Sacramento x3
Santa Fe
DC
NY
Scottsdale
NL North
St. Louis x3
Cincy
Cleveland
NL East
Hartford x3
Boston
KC
NL South
Atlanta x4
Houston
NL West
Anaheim x5
NL Wildcard
St. Louis
Houston x4
Cincy
Monterey
Boston
Hartford
KC
Friday, September 7, 2007
Free Agency Review
Anaheim - Showed he's not afraid to get players that are a little older. Signed 6 guys older than 36 with a total of 8 All star games between them so they have had success. 2 setup/closer types a SP and a backup catcher that can smack the ball around in the 1/3 games he can play in. Ramiro Suarez, Jason Stair, Mendy Aoki and Eric Franklin will turn this staff around, and picking up Albert Guzman for a song was gravy. Gets my vote for best free agency due to quantity and quality.
Austin - Signed a very nice back of the rotation SP William Woo. 200 IP 4.50 and only .67 HR per start can be expected.
Boston - Signed one of the few top of the line defensive SS, not a great bat but enough of one that he can play in the majors. Add another decent bat and the Hot or Cold SP Vin Lee. He in third in career shutouts, but can also get lit up.
Chicago - resigned their own back in OF Santayana and RP Diaz, and hoping they play like season four and not season five.
Cincinnati - Got a career .376 OBP outfielder and a solid RP.
Dover - Got SP Clay Reese and Dustin Sutton at a bargain basement prices, not much risk for a SP with good history. Then picked up a nice defensive CF Shane Wilson.
Honolulu - Picked up two top notch defensive catcher and a very solid defender at SS.
Indianapolis - Grabbed a decent look SP, who is untested in the majors. Also got a nice RP in Aaron Hall.
KC - Harry Chavez hit 52 HRs last year and should add some punch, plus Norman Freeman and Brent Diaz should make this a potent lineup. Zephyr Cora is also a very good option at RP.
LV - Grabbed a solid defensive SS.
LA - Got one of the best defensive SS available in Bailey Crawford. Marchall Decker is a quality LH bat and Darrell Castillo looked like a decent pitcher once he left Coors field.
Milwaukee - Signed two defensive SS, Lawton was a minor league FA but actually looks like he can catch the ball.
Monterrey - Plugged up holes in the bullpen with two solid vets.
NY - Surprisingly quiet since their biggest rival made a splash in FA, really just held on to Brinkley
Sacramento - Toby Weston will fill the LRA role nicely for this team. If Garcia keeps the walks down he might help the back of the rotation.
Salem - Salem found an inning eating SP, and quality LH RP.
Scottsdale - Terry Cummings fills a long relief/emergency SP role for the team, and late additions of Marc Wayne and Matt Charles help to makeup for the loss of 340 IPs from Vitas Sobkowiak and Ramiro Saurez
St. Louis - One of the better FA classes in the league. Picked up some power in Matthew Bravo, and grabbed a couple of bench guys and RP Mack Ramirez.
Washington DC - A close second in FA sweepstakes. Started with stealing NYs starting 3B in Mark Ross and then grabbed 3 of the best young RPs available in Gookie Sellers, Steve Childers, and Miguel Molina.
Wichita - He was able to comeback and sign his own solid group of departing FA in Al Chambers, Robin Sullivan, and Brian Maeda, then picked up an Inning eating SP in George Bell who came on strong at the end of last season.
Big Draft Winners - cashed in on getting draft picks for losing FAs.
St. Louis
Indianapolis
NY
Top Free Agent Team
Anaheim - If you are talking about helping their team this season they blew the other teams away in free agency from the beginning to the end. If their is any downside it is the almost exclusively older guys.
Blue Ribbon Tier - No particular order
DC - Obvious plan in FA and all the guys are younger players.
Wichita - Spent a lot of money and some of the guys have either little or spotty history of success. The Julio Lopez signing seemed high for a guy that is 31, plays 1B, and spent the last two seasons in AAA and couldn't hit .260 or 20HRs. That said three or four of his other signings look good.
St. Louis - If a couple of his signing rebound from poor seasons he could have the classic low risk high return type players. Also this team really needed a power hitter and Bravo could be perfect for them.
Milwaukee - Maybe some teams signed better players, but the quality defensive SS was a need area for this team and it was filled.
KC - Did a great job getting some offense from a pool of players that was a little shallow this season.
Honoralbe Mention
LA
Boston
Austin
Monday, September 3, 2007
More on Fielding
In Morgan World the average team 89% of the scored runs were earned runs. I used the method of each team's average instead of all combined runs vs. unearned runs because that would lend more weight to teams that gave up more total runs. This way everyone has 1/32 of a say in the league total.
In MLB this season 91% of the runs scored were earned runs.
Morgan world teams varied from a high of 92% to a low of 84%, there were a number around the 91-92% mark.
MLB teams varied from a high of 95% to a low of 87%. Only one team had 94%.
Sunday, September 2, 2007
Season 5 pitch rankings
Monday, August 27, 2007
Fielding percentages
On average the top 5 SS's in Morgan world had 22% more chances than their Major League counterparts (887 to 728). Their average range factor was 5.87 versus the Major League average of 4.75. The average fielding percentage in Morgan was .960 whereas the average fielding percentage in MLB was .972. This difference (I feel) can be attributed to the fact that Zach Kirby (MEM) had a .939 fielding percentage which significantly hurt the overall average.
HBD
Orlando Flores (WAS) - 1,375.1INN, 938TC, 5.90RF, .961FLDG, 37E, 89RA, 88GL, 92AS, 84AA - MLB PROJ E: 28
Zach Kirby (MEM) - 1,336.1INN, 929TC, 5.87RF, .939FLDG, 57E, 72RA, 76GL, 79AS, 69AA - MLB PROJ E: 44
Darrel Perez (SCO) - 1,283.2INN, 865TC, 5.88RF, .969FLDG, 27E, 80RA, 90GL, 93AS, 82AA - MLB PROJ E: 23
Victor Williams (CIN) - 1,266.0INN, 874TC, 6.04RF, .973FLDG, 24E, 91RA, 84GL, 94AS, 91AA - MLB PROJ E: 20
Goeff Leonard (NY1) - 1,258.0INN, 829TC, 5.68RF, .958FLDG, 35E, 78RA, 84GL, 84AS, 82AA - MLB PROJ E: 31
MLB
R Furcal - 1,371.0INN, 788TC, 5.00RF, .966FLDG, 27E/HBD E: 30
M Young - 1,356.1INN, 747TC, 4.86RF, .981FLDG, 14E/HBD E: 17
J Peralta - 1,275.1INN, 710TC, 4.90RF, .977FLDG, 16E/HBD E: 20
Y Betancourt - 1,374.1INN, 701TC, 4.46RF, .971FLDG, 20E/HBD E: 26
H Ramirez - 1,323.1INN, 695TC, 4.55RF, .963FLDG, 26E/HBD E 33
Take away from this what you will, but my conclusion is that the rate that our SS's are reaching balls seems to be too high in comparison to the best that the MLB can offer. Reaching more balls will lead to more errors as will playing someone who is not a SS at SS (Kirby and Leonard IMO). I'm thinking it's more of a matter of there being a lack of adequate players for SS as well as an inordinate number of chances for the SS position.
Friday, August 24, 2007
DL Trips
Average days lost per team - 171
Average Training per team - 12
Average Medical per team - 12
Total days lost - 5,461
2 Teams had a total of 360 DL days. These teams spent 12/12 & 10/10 (T/M). Memphis & Salt Lake City, respectively.
2 Teams had a total of 0 DL days. These teams 16/13 & 14/14. Boston & St. Louis respectively.
Cincinnati spent the most (18/18) and had 104 DL days.
Sacramento spent the least (8/8) and had 155 DL days.
I don't know how to post an excel spreadsheet, so feel free to contact me, hurricane384, for the raw data.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
First look at Season 6 FA list
This is a quick list I ran though. It does not take into account any options that teams or players hold for next season that could dramatically change this list.
Mark Ross NY In his prime, has a .310 lifetime and got his 5th consecutive 100RBI season. The most well rounded player on the list. He's got power, and great OBP, defense and speed. He can play any position outside of SS/C and really could be a team's emergency SS. He won't ever be MVP of the league, but he will help any team and really has no weakness.
Rich Forbes SCO Starting to show his age but he can still hit and get on base. His L/R splits are among the highest for any 3B in the league.
Heath DeRosa HAR Still young and he has solid ratings across the board, good splits, BE and decent Def.
Brian Maeda LOU - Starting to get a little long in the tooth. While his power and RBI numbers have dropped he is still a has kept up his .308 career average and .390 career OBP.
Norman Freeman HAR - Another player that has lost his power numbers from early in his career, but still can get on base, has an amazing .440 career OBP and had a .457 this season. He obviously played in one of the best hitters park but you can’t ignore those numbers.
Greg Brinkley NY – A speedy 3b/OF that can get on base. He probably won’t be a 30/30 player that he was in season two, but can his speed and power make him a threat.
Bailey Crawford/Bob Widger/Manny Hernandez/Chris Sinclair – A similar group of adequate hitting great fielding players that are great to have. Could start for many teams, or at least be that utility player who gets 300+ ABs because he won’t lose a game for in the field.
Daniel Malone CSP- Showing his age. After his fireman of the year award in season 1 he was merely average, but came back to life in season 5 and still has great ratings.
Joey Diaz CHI Has good ratings, but his stamina probably puts him in the bullpen next season. He could serve as a nice LRA for a number of team looking for bullpen help.
Andre Starr - no longer a closer, but his fourth season of a sub 4.00 ERA is worth a being some team setup man.
Marc Wayne - A journeyman RP that will find a spot in a contenders bullpen.
Ramiro Suarez SCO - Another older pitcher, but he appeared in 79 games and had a 1.24 WHIP and 4.24 ERA. He has the kind of rubber arm that every team needs.
Steve Childers STL – Very similar setup guy to Suarez except he’s much younger, and his L/R splits are not good as Suarez.
Mendy Aoki – After a stellar career as a SP he was moved to the bullpen because of stamina issues. This was his worst season yet, after never having an ERA above 3.76 he had a 6.00 this season. His ratings are still good and I don’t expect another season like that, but his STA/DUR numbers kind of put him in no mans land for a role.
Robin Sullivan LOU – Will be 33 years old and is a solid middle of the rotation SP. He’s pitched 210+ innings every season and has a career 70-53 1.38 WHIP 4.43 ERA. Not a very sexy FA pickup, but if it keeps you from throwing a awful pitcher on the mound every 5th day he is worth the money. Health could be an issue for the owner that wants to do a long term deal.
William Woo Ari – Nothing spectacular about this guy, but he’ll keep you in the game and won’t give up many HRs. Just don’t look for him to be the Ace of your staff.
Kevin Franklin ATL – Might be able to help a team hold down the fort until good minor leaguers are ready, but its starting too look like his incredible season 3 was a fluke.
Rodrigo Johnson RIC – Ratings wise this guy looks like a AAA guy at best, but for some reason he performs adequately. Of all the FA SPs available he might have the best OAV, ERA, and WHIP totals of anyone.
Clay Reese – Might have the best chance of catching lighting of any of the group of SPs on the FA market. Season 4 he was on pace to win the Cy Young Award until an injury sidelined him. He seems like he has usually under performed his ratings though.
Dustin Sutton SLC - Sutton had a tough season 5, it could be the signal the end is close for him but he has had a solid career and one or two more decent seasons would not be out of the question. In seasons 2-4 he won 51 games and he still has good L/R splits and control ratings. Has been a career leader in shutouts and complete games.
Monday, August 20, 2007
BEST INTERNATIONAL SIGNINGS – NL WEST – SEASON ONE
1) Best Value
Tony James currently sits on the Arizona AA roster. He’s a solid .300+ hitter that lacks a regular position. He seems to make too many errors to be a regular CF or 2B and may find a home in RF. Signing for $875K, James could peak on the major league roster as a great pinch hitter with his strong rating against lefties.
2) Lowest Production Per Dollar
The Las Vegas Gamblers signed nine International free agents for a total of $4.29 million.
One of the players (P Placido Domingo) was traded to Scottsdale’s High A team. Three players retired, three were released, and one was waived (P Vasco Lee, who was claimed by Cincinnati and pitches for their High A team).
Only ONE player is still the property of Las Vegas. Shortstop Junior Wang currently sits on the Vegas AA roster, but his spot on the bench appears tenuous after about 100 at-bats this season with a .243 between High A and AA.
I’m sure Vegas wishes they could redo this bunch of signings.
3) Best Overall
Arizona signed pitcher Erubiel Castillo for $2.4 million based on his projections as a strong short reliever. Castillo was put to the test immediately after his signing, struggling in about 10 Rookie innings before pitching 80 solid innings in Low/High A with a WHIP just above 1.35. Castillo followed with two solid years in High A (38-48 in save opportunities) before dominating AA ball in Season 4 (2.06 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, .188 batting average allowed, 33-36 in save opportunities).
Erubiel struggled in AAA this season (5.77 ERA, 1.55 WHIP), but did convert 25 of 31 save opportunities. It appears Erubiel will need one more season in AAA before getting his promotion to the bigs.
Monday, August 13, 2007
Budgeting for the playoffs

Tuesday, August 7, 2007
NL Playoff Picture
Apologies to
Barring something spectacular
Arizona like always is going to pin its hopes on Doug Connelly and Dick Yeats, an impressive 1-2 punch but they might be starting to show their age. Their pitchers are statistically an average group, and in another HBD relief pitcher oddity their closer has a 6.00 ERA, yet has converted 93% of his save opportunities.
NL North - Due to some recent long losing streaks
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Draft re-cap
Colorado Springs - A couple holdouts that might not sign, a very solid #2 hitter type RF prospect, a good hitting/defensive 2b/CF, and a decent backup OF type player.
LA - A nice SP that should do well in their park, some other decent SP/RPs but no position players until 10th rd.
NY - Picked up a decent hitting 2B Cambell that could lead the league in SBs, and a power hitting OF. The 4th rd C/DH should be a superior OBP players.
Richmod - picked a light hitting phenomenal fielding SS late in rd 1. A decent hitting 2B in rd 2 followed by a borderline RP prospect.
St. Louis - Only had one pick in rd 1-5 and my scouts didn't see him.
Best Value Award
Building with Depth Award
Was it enough? Award
First one to 100 wins Award
Back to the basics Award
Best Drafts
Monday, July 9, 2007
The Best
Best Hitter: Carlos Johnson (Hartford) - His batting line reads like something out of a horror story for pitchers… a .380 avg, .498 OBP, .843 SLG…30 HRs, 80 RBIs. Kind of ridiculous if you ask me.
Best Pitcher: Douglas Parker (Richmond) - This was a tough pick as nobody really took control. This guy has a WHIP of 1.21 and an ERA of 2.96. He has struck out 56 while walking only 26. He’s also thrown 4 complete games. Pretty solid all-around right there.
American League
Best Hitter: Rusty Jones (Scottsdale) - .430/.533/.804. That says it all right there. 18 HRs, 58 RBI, only 10 K's. This was a no brainer.
Best Pitcher: JC Russell (Salem) - Through 90.2 IP his ERA of 2.08 leads the AL by nearly a full point and his WHIP of 1.04 is best by .13. This is a no-brainer.
The Best & Worst of Division Play
Best: NL East - With 3 teams within 4 games of first place and all 3 teams are at least 10 games over .500. This division has a shot of landing 3 teams in the playoffs when the season is over.
Worst: NL North - This could be a barn-burner of mediocrity and awfulness. 4 teams. 5 games separate them. Unfortunately the division leader is 30-31. It’s looking more and more like 80 games could win this division.
American League*
Best: AL West - Scottsdale could run away with this division, but the rest of the teams are still within a multi game winning streak of making this into an interesting division race.
Worst: AL South - There was no clear-cut winner so I just went with the division whose bottom teams were worse than the other divisions’ bottom two.
* You could make a case for any division in the American League for both classifications. In each division (minus the South) the second place team is 5.0 games out. It's early, but that's quite a ways out of first place.



