Friday, June 27, 2008

Pitching Projections

I know I posted on the World Chat that I was going to be an analysis/projection on some of the pitchers in our World to attempt to project them throughout a career. My first choice was Earl Wilkerson. I compared him to Greg Maddux. That was really just a hunch. As I looked deeper though, they are very comparable. Wilkerson has averaged 156 K's per season for his career while Maddux's 162-game average is 155. 46 walks for Maddux versus 77 per season for Wilkerson, but the comparison will have to do.

I can't really explain what I did very well, but here it goes.
1st 4 years of the career - Maddux w% was .526 with a decision % of 81.2%.
I took the 81.2% minus 73.4% (Wilkerson's career decision percentage for the 8 seasons of data that we have). This gave me 7.8%. I adjusted each of Maddux's first four full seasons down by this amount to determine the projected/predicted number of decisions Wilkerson would have had in his first four seasons. I did the same thing with the winning percentage, only this time adjusting Wilkerson's wins upwards based on the fact that his career W% was higher than Maddux's. I did the same thing for the final 9 seasons of Wilkerson's career.

The final projection for Wilkerson is a record of 365-141. Let me know if what I did makes sense and if anybody would be interested in more of these...

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