Saturday, January 17, 2009

S11 Draft Review

Anaheim - Ken Miller looks like he might be just a tad shy of true SS glove quality, but with his power rating he could be a silver slugger at 3B. Great pickup at 18.
Ed Brosier hasn’t signed yet, but he’s a good pitcher who could probably only throw 65-75 pitches a game so probably best suited for LRA, but maybe SP5.
2nd round pick Marshall Casey is interesting. Upper 90s power, decent splits, 90s Stamina and Health so I expect 50-60 HRs a season.
Then got a future 1B Rheal Coleman 4 picks later.
3rd round got a very nice Closer/Setup type RP in Alex Matos.
No way 4th rounder Nate Palmer is a starter (really a 0 vR rating), but as a 25th man on the roster he gives you SS glove and potentially one of the best SB threats in the league. Not to be outdone 5th round SS choice Jesus Mendez has 0 rating for vR and vL. I’ve never even seen a pitcher with double 0’s for splits.
Atlanta – Future closer picked at #28 Josh Hill, good RP with great pitch ratings. That’s who Dover gave up to get Tony Rivera. Rivera is probably better, but he’s 32 years old. Seems like a fair trade.
Atlanta has indicated they might not sign Tex Toler since he is known as a clubhouse cancer, but he is a decent CF.
The other half of the Rivera signing is Tomas Martin, can pitch a ton of innings and won’t walk many guys, but L/R splits are borderline ML. If he starts for ATL they will probably just hope he holds down the fort in the 5th spot.
2nd round pick Bob Webster is a stellar pitcher, but his mid 30s DUR and 18 STA mean that he can pitch 1 inning every 4 games.
3rd rounder Dmitri Burkhart is a borderline prospect. It usually takes higher L/R splits or pitch ratings to overcome mediocre control. Plus his STA/DUR combo doesn’t really make him an ideal LR or Mopup candidate.
4th rounder Michael Saarloos might be a role player or platoon, but he is young and very raw. Long way to go to develop.
Augusta – For the 25th pick they got a solid SP in Cliff Spradlin. His control is a tad low, but only his 5th pitch should be sub 60, and all his other ratings look good.
Norm Jordan is a safe pick at #78. He’ll be a role player, virtually every defensive and offensive rating falls between mid 50s and low 70s, so he’ll play a fairly non-descript 6-8 year ML career.
Pascual Guzman is one of those odd players that WifS invented, high STA but obscenely low DUR. Personally I don’t think a guy could pitch 85 pitches in a game and then be exhausted for 10 days should exist, but they do in this game. So he’s really a setup/closer type now.
Austin – 13th pick Zephyr Riley is a solid CF/2B prospect. Good range/glove and very nice offensive numbers. He is very raw though and has a long way to go to make his potential.
Destin Shuck looks like a great hitter in the #2 spot. Great OBP, has some power , and hits both Lefties and Righties. Good supp pick for RF.
Boise – Grabbed a solid SP James Hines at #21.
2nd round pick Albert Ashburn looks good, but that control is a bit low. His other numbers might be good enough to overcome that.
Not only does 3rd RP Billy Posey have good pitcher ratings, that DUR in the upper 90’s with mean he can pitch 90+ games a season.
Well a DH aren’t completely useless in the NL, but close. Getting a good PH that could be a backup C in a pinch in the 4th round isn’t that bad David Diaz, now if he picked up a DH in round one I would have certainly questioned the motives, but in round 4 a solid PH is better than nothing.
Boston – CF Glenn Jackson , so Boston has a CF that could leadoff with something close to a .400 OBP. Decent enough glove, but not spectacular.
Solid hitting 2B Buck Wainhouse in the second round.
Douglas Battle has a solid bat, but if he can only be 1B/DH he seems a little below average.
Charlotte – Can’t see his first round pick and he has yet to sign. 2nd round pick Paul Stocker his a great glove CF that has great contact and BE, but not good power or L/R splits. It will be interesting to see how he performs.
3rd round they got a solid 3B Willis Simms who has a little pop in his bat.
I really like 4th round pick Ugueth Soriano, and even if he doesn’t improve his DUR/STA it already stands at an impressive 78/34.
Chicago NL – Well the recent history of picking franchise players in the draft continues for Chicago. Of course pick 4,1,4, and 6 in the last four drafts helps. 3B Jesus Alicea looks to have long productive ML career ahead of him, an few trips to the all-star game isn’t out of the question.
Solid tweener type LR/SP in Orber Ozuna, either way he can probably give you 110-130 IPs a season.
3rd rounder Damion Seneca does everything ok, but doesn’t excel at anything.
Cincinnati - Got one of the top players in the draft in SP P.J. Melfi. Easily puts up 220+ IPs, and gives them a true ace.
SP Luis Hernandez should be able to cover the back end of the rotation.
Cleveland – Got a franchise slugging LH 1B Julian Rosario, it will be interesting to see how the affect of 95 speed and 26 base running skills plays out. He might steal 50 SBs and get thrown out 35 times.
SP/RP Phil Riley should be a good addition to the bullpen.
Well Vlad Goya isn’t worried about his job yet, but in 5 seasons Cleveland will be needing a new CF and Bob Phillips can fill that void…but not quite fill Vlad’s shoes.
Most flame out, but sometimes when given enough ABs those huge power guys like Paul Morandini come through and hit .235/48/115 and sometimes it fits a team’s needs.
Dover – Didn’t pick until 48, but got a solid big league IF Virgil Valdes, great makeup but poor health.
Maybe my scouting is off, but I’m surprised Jayson Rain fell all the way to #113. He’s not a silver slugger, but the only rating which really seems low is BE. Seems he could have been picked 30-40 picks sooner easily.
This draft sure seemed filled with tweener pitchers and Dover got one and it only cost a 4th round pick for Seth Knight.
Durham – Talk about doing it all, Luther Sellers is one of the most interesting guys to come along. All his offensive ratings are 75+, and he has the 100 speed rating with a solid base running skills. He’s going to be one of those rare guys that can win not just a game, but a series virtually by himself.
SP Andrew Daniels could be a back of the rotation type guy.
Florida – Is starting to get used to having to draft in a slot other than 1 or 2, but is still pulling quality talent. Alex Williams has a great bat and should be a great #5 or #6 hitter. Most of their other picks have not signed yet.
Hartford – It’s a little scary that a player like Wesley Hall is headed to the little league ballfield that is called Hartford. It’s one thing when a solid hitting 1B falls to #22, but it’s a 2B with a good glove it makes it even scarier and he’s good at everything else too.
But don’t worry too much, that good hitting 1B Taylor Pavano fell to them at pick #41
Quinn Kaufman is one of those good hitting catchers that abound, but he actually has a good enough glove to be effective behind the plate.
Lon Wood looks like at the very least one of those utility players that can hit and play every position outside of SS and C.
Shawn Hudson is the perfect backup catcher.
Helena – Went heavy on the pitchers, and grabbed an ace SP at #10 in Dick Brooks. He does absolutely everything well and is a certain all-star.
SP Andrea Byrne might make it, but the vR rating seems a tad low.
Louisville – RP Andrea Byrne -w ho I call an RP because in my experience a 14 DUR just can’t pitch as a starter every 5th day and I tried it with a guy that had mid-90s STA. Too bad because he is great in every other manner, but he should still give close to 100 IPs a season.
3B Jordan Benard has interesting ratings, super high contact and BE, and average splits and power. I am very interested in seeing what his stats turn out like.
In the third round Louisville got one of the best SS gloves in the draft Shane Knotts and even hits righties well.
If RP Melvin Walker can overcome low control he could be decent.
Memphis – I hope it’s my poor scouting, but I see Brian Kirby as having great ratings in everything except the vR rating. Seems like a big risk for the 4th pick in the draft.
IF Spike Sweeney is a good all round pick for the third round.
Milwaukee – Their first pick has me stumped a bit, maybe my scouting is way off on this player, but I find it hard to believe he wouldn’t have be available much later in the draft. John Halama has good vR, control and pitch ratings, but his STA and DUR ratings are so low it really affects his usefulness. I actually tried to find a player with 30/30 STA/DUR in the majors and there isn’t one.
Orber Mendoza is an interesting OF. He has great contract and BE and solid power numbers, but modest L/R splits. He is certainly ML material, but I will be interested in seeing what his stats look like.
They got a utility guy Ted Verdugo in the second round. I actually like their #84 pick better Benny Vincente.
Minnesota – Got the premier RP in the draft Juan Galarraga, besides his great control, and L/R splits he has such great STA/DUR that it is almost like having getting a 26th man on the roster. There really was only one negative about this player, and unfortunately it has already come back to bite Minnesota and that is his health rating. Juan has already found himself on the DL for most of the rest of the season.
With the first supp pick they grabbed a pretty good SP in Joe James.
Nashville – SS Mark Posey looks like he will actually have SS quality glove and hits well enough that he doesn’t have to bat 8th or 9th. Nice pickup at #11.
A little torn on SP Derek Paige, decent ratings except vR seems a bit low.
2nd rounder Al Peterson looks like a solid 3B prospect, that high BE really separates him from just and average guy.
CF Stan Matthews looks like a pretty good later round pickup. CF type glove, speed and good splits.
NY AL – 3B Frank Herndon looks to be one of those very solid quality 3B with a Robin Ventura type career. Reminds me of George Gryboski in his stats.
2nd Round pick Lloyd Jenkins is a great hitting slugging DH. Another nice pick for #80 in the draft.
Richmond – This team had 4 first round draft picks. RP Wilkin Padilla was one of the better RPs in the draft. His STA/DUR is so good his best role might actually be Setup A rather than closer so he can 100 or so IPs.
#24 they got SP Barney Velandia who looks like a very nice starter. Two great pitches and very nice control, splits are a tad low but I think the pitch ratings and control will make up for it.
Their third first round pick won’t sign, but their fourth one is a good hitting LF that is a great value pick. Benji Gunderson has great hitting ratings everywhere except an extremely low BE. BE is one of my favorite ratings, but his other batting ratings are so high I think he will still be a valuable player.
4th round pick Norman Edmonds is a decent ML 3B. Same goes for 1B/LF Dick Harris.
Rochester – looks like their first round pick at #14 isn’t going to sign or their pick at #44. They did get a very nice Catcher Ozzie Lee who can be a quality backstop and good bat.
Salem – got one of the better SS in Josh Hume. Good glove, and a nice hitter.
Sam Schneider seems like a decent ML’er, maybe a utility type guy.
San Diego – 8th pick in the draft Jimmy Jefferies reminds me of my own Felipe Rodriguez. Speedy, high OBP, overall very nice player.
Pretty good SP George Adams at #43.
Scottsdale – Didn’t have a 1st round pick, and didn’t sign a guy until the 5th round. At least they got a great bargain on the IFA market.
Sioux Falls – Had thoughts about taking Juan Gallaraga at #1, but after Juan’s injury they are probably glad they passed on that. Instead they chose Sandy Yeats. Probably not the premier HOF type SP they were hoping to get, but he is a very good SP. All four of his pitches are very highly rated, pretty good splits, and doesn’t really have any red flags. Would be a solid SP for any team in the league.
St. Louis – They found a replacement for CF McNamara in Raymond Parnell , a good hitting CF that is already 21 so he should be in the bigs soon.
After getting Parnell in the first round they got a very raw Ariel Vizcaino in round two. Good player that is probably 4 seasons away from the majors.
Hi Wilson is also a good 3rd round pick for 3B.
Got one of the premiere defensive catchers in Hughie Marion. Not a bad hitter, but will struggle against RH pitchers.
Tacoma – The best SP in the draft will probably end up being Alan Gibson. Obviously the player Sioux Falls wish they had seen. A guy like him playing in the pitchers ballpark like Tacoma could have multiple seasons under 3.00 ERA.
Picked a solid closer at #55 in Ralph Gordon. Then got a nice middle reliever Wilfredo Mendez.
Nice defensive C Victor Sanchez will just help this pitching staff.
Texas – Good RP Glenn Ball, nice splits and control. Good enough STA/DUR that he could be the team’s primary setup guy.
Dizzy Reitz looks like a decent #3 or #4 SP,
Larry Clinton looks more like a long relief/emergency starter type guy to me. Control is good, splits ok, but as I looked the lack of a dominant 1st pitch I think will keep him from being a really good SP. That said for the third round he was a good gamble, and maybe he surprises.
Toronto – SP Lewis Mays is very raw. He’s got a rubber arm and could pitch 230+ IPs, but he’s a long way from projections. If he does get close he could be a quality contributor.
SP Dummy Cogan looks good, but he has shaky control.
Hipolito Castillo all round pretty good 2B.
Vancouver – 1st and 2nd round picks haven’t signed. John Conine will be at best the 25th guy that is a great defensive CF/2B and speed off the bench.

Top Drafts
Tacoma – Best Draft in the league. Not only one of the best players, but quality players later in the draft.
Sioux Falls - but picking #1 almost ensures you will be on this list.
Anaheim – All round good selections
Cincinnati – based solely on their first pick
Durham – almost based solely on their first pick.
Richmond – 3 quality first round picks, which are all above average type guys
Hartford – got 5 players that can play well in the big leagues.
Good Picks for where they picked Drafts

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