Friday, June 22, 2007

BEST INTERNATIONAL SIGNINGS – NL NORTH – SEASON ONE

1) Best Value

The Cincinnati Reds signed P Tomas Alonso for $910K, hoping Alonso could develop into a major league starter. While Alonso likely won’t be an ace, he could make for a decent #4 or #5 starter with his solid stamina and above average control.

Alonso was a workhorse in AA ball, with 68 starts over two seasons and an 18-8 record in Season 2. He was promoted to AAA in Season 4 and turned heads with a 13-8 record with a 4.17 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Thus far in Season 5, he looks likely to improve on those numbers.

Don’t be surprised if Alonso gets a mid-season promotion to the big show.


2) Lowest Production Per Dollar

I was tempted to give this to either Cleveland AA pitcher Willie Gutierrez ($1.8 mil) or Toronto AA pitcher Jimmy Vazquez ($2.5 mil), but there is still a chance for both pitchers to crack into AAA or higher.

No such opportunity exists for Miguel Lee. The Dominican pitcher signed with St. Louis for $1 million, but had a disappointing Rookie ball debut in Season 1. For some reason, he shuttled between Rookie and Low A in Season 2 despite an inability to keep his WHIP below 2.50.

Then, in Season 3, came the breakthrough. In Low A, Lee had a 3.23 ERA and a WHIP of 1.14 WHIP over 64 innings. Half of his appearances were starts, showing his flexibility. He was then promoted to High A, and although his 5+ ERA and 1.61 WHIP weren’t great, he had pitched less than 14 innings.

Surprisingly, instead of staying in High A for Season 4, he was demoted….all the way back to ROOKIE ball.

He pitched 38 half-hearted innings in Rookie, then retired.


3) Best Overall

Two players are worthy of mention in this category.

Honorable Mention would go to Juan Carrasco, currently on Cincinnati’s AAA roster. After receiving a $2.8 million signing bonus, Carrasco was immediately through into the fire of the AAA roster. Averaging a .296 batting average over his minor league career, Carrasco has been bounced from 3B to the outfield. He could play either position adequately and is a potential starter for the Reds in the very near future.

The award goes to Toronto pitcher Ichiro Li. The Storks dished $3 million to sign the set up man from Japan, and Li has delivered in every level of the minors that he has pitched. He was dominant in Low A, producing a sub-1.00 WHIP in 42 total innings. In Season 4, he made 50 appearances (including 2 suspect starts) in High A. Li’s 3.57 ERA and 1.34 WHIP would likely have been improved without the starts, where he simply does not have the stamina to pitch. His 40/11 K/BB ratio was especially impressive.

This season, Li is off to a great start in AA. His 2.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP could land him a mid-season promotion if maintained. Li’s potential weakness is that he produces significantly more flyballs, although he has only surrendered 12 HRs in 152 minor league innings.

***Chrispy is the author of this post ***

Thursday, June 21, 2007

RANDOM FACTS (ML)

Oldest Team: Salem (30.5)
Youngest Team: Santa Fe (25.0)
Highest salary (per): Las Vegas ($3.8M)
Lowest salary (per): Milwaukee ($847K)
Most drafted: Santa Fe & Boston (7)
Fewest drafted: 12 teams with 0
Most experience: Richmond (6.9)
Least experience: Milwaukee (1.6)

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

BEST INTERNATIONAL SIGNINGS – AL WEST – SEASON ONE

1) Best Value

The Anaheim Long Ballers spent $2.91 million on 5 international prospects, and the current Salt Lake City Bonnevilles GM isn’t complaining about a few of those players.

SS Fernando Chavez signed with Anaheim for $430K and currently sits on Salt Lake’s AA roster. Chavez spent his first two seasons in Rookie ball, but only played in 73 games in Season 2 despite hitting over .300. He started Season 3 in Rookie, but earned a promotion to Low A after 15 games. Chavez responded to the promotion by hitting .364 and splitting time between SS and RF defensively. After starting Season 4 in Low A, he once again earned a mid-season promotion. Chavez hit .315 in 73 games, this time exclusively at SS.

While lacking in speed and power, Chavez could possibly earn a major league bench role with a solid batting average in the next few seasons.


2) Lowest Production Per Dollar

I really wanted to give this award to Hector Rosado, a pitcher that signed for $5 million with Albuquerque and currently sits on Atlanta’s AAA level. However, all of the trades that are tied into Rosado and Sacramento make Rosado’s value to Sacramento a bit arguable. (If you have 3 hours, feel free to trace down Rosado and all of the players that went to SacTown after his trade.)

Rodrigo Gomez signed with Anaheim for $1 million. After two seasons in Rookie ball, he finally “earned” a promotion to Low A (7-4, 5.35 ERA, 1.59 WHIP). Season 4 saw Gomez put up a 5-10 record in 25 starts with a 4.73 ERA and 1.44 WHIP and seemed primed for a potential promotion to High A.

No such luck, as Gomez retired before Season 5. Reports were that he had figured on two more seasons in Low A before another promotion, putting his expected age before a major league promotion to be around 174.


3) Best Overall

Anaheim signed 3B Luis Seneca for a mere $890K, which Salt Lake could view as a bargain in a few year.

In Season 1, the power hitting Seneca hit .281 with 28 HR and 106 RBIs in Low A. Surprisingly, Seneca was DEMOTED to Rookie ball the following year, where he hit .341 with 17 HRs and 98 RBIs in less than half of a full season.

In Seasons 3 and 4, Seneca turned High A ball into a playground, putting up 82 HRs, over 300 RBIs, and a .325 batting average.

He starts Season 5 in High A, and Salt Lake might want to consider promoting him immediately or risk losing him to retirement. Luis could likely end up as a backup 3B on the major league level, especially with his power and ability to hit right handers.

Monday, June 18, 2007

Lineup Strength and Position Player Rater

I run my players through a formula that recalculates their overall values to something I feel is a little more in line with production. So I decided to expand it for the entire league. Its not rocket science, just focuses on some of the more important attributes and tries to penalize for low numbers in certain areas. For example a bad player with a 99 health rating is still bad, but a great player with a 30 health rating is taken down a notch or two. I will also admit that it does suppress the value the elite base stealers of the league. I would almost rather devalue the 3-5 true game changing lead-off players (ala Rickey Henderson) than to overvalue the 20-30 guys that are one dimensional (ala Tony Womack)

It obviously fluctuates, but we keep a little over 400 position players at the big league level. Below is rough estimate of how many players in each range there were and how I would categorize the values.

how many players rated 20-49 70 (usually one dimensional or just bad)
how many players rated 50-59 86 (below average ML players)
how many players rated 60-69 100 (Average ML talent)
how many players rated 70-79 87 (Above Average Player)
how many players rated 80-89 40 (all-star)
how many players rated 90-100 23 (HOFers)

This is a list of how the average lineup rated. I just rated the top 10 players so in most cases I dropped the worst two players from each team so as not to penalize a team that kept a lowly rated player as a specialist (defensive specialist, pinch runner, LH power, backup catcher, etc) except in the cases of a couple of team that have 10 or less position players.

Team Avg Rating
HOU 80.02
SCO 77.80
MNT 76.72
ARI 76.57
NY 75.94
HAR 74.66
TOR 74.06
ATL 73.64
CH2 72.02
SAC 71.42
RIC 70.32
BOS 69.64
SFE 69.56
CSP 69.24
IND 68.82
LV 68.23
STL 68.16
CLE 67.98
MEM 67.61
MIN 66.73
OK 65.42
TEX 64.66
CIN 64.40
AUS 63.52
SAL 63.45
SLC 62.38
LA 60.13
WAS 59.53
MIL 58.66
MON 57.01
FLA 55.13

I have also included a list of currently Rated Top 100 players. This doesn't take into account future projections, just how they are rated for this season. I don't mind sending someone the entire list, but its way to long for the blog.

Name Team Age Rating
Tim Smith HOU 31 104.56
Darrel Perez SCO 27 102.33
Rusty Jones SCO 30 100.27
Doug Connelly ARI 30 99.94
Dick Yeats ARI 33 98.35
Derrick Flynn SFE 26 97.25
Glenn Kubenka MEM 25 96.12
George Spence CH2 30 96.07
Rafael Cedeno SAC 24 95.52
Carlos Johnson HAR 24 95.50
Robert Black HAR 30 94.99
Al Pena RIC 31 94.91
Sam Rivera LOU 29 94.79
Mark Lee LA 30 93.59
Mark Ross NY1 28 93.15
Vic Saenz ATL 33 93.14
Steve Taylor HOU 22 92.89
Pablo Johnson MNT 28 92.65
Homer Monroe MEM 26 91.95
Tony Chang ARI 28 91.40
Vladimir Goya CLE 25 91.33
Raul Gonzalez SLC 24 90.80
Dan West TOR 32 90.28
Hugh Moore MNT 32 89.46
Alan O'Malley MIN 24 89.31
Benito Vazquez MNT 27 89.16
Enrique Ruiz RIC 26 89.13
Alex Green SCO 25 88.82
Tony Rivera ATL 26 88.11
Albert Guzman WAS 31 87.83
Kiki Lopez NY1 25 87.77
Walt Keeler MIN 27 87.60
Stan Jackson CH2 27 86.89
Del Castro SAC 24 86.76
Bey Buckley ATL 24 86.62
Carlos Javier TOR 31 86.60
Ken Jefferies MIL 25 86.39
Ricardo Santana ARI 25 86.23
Ozzie Dougherty HOU 32 85.90
Bonk Linton BOS 25 85.88
Brian Scott STL 30 85.67
Mendy Messmer STL 30 85.40
Tim Durbin SCO 23 85.01
David Pineiro HOU 33 84.85
Ben Musial TEX 30 84.30
Willie Sikorski IND 31 84.21
Chili Olsen HOU 22 83.08
John Blank BOS 25 83.05
Carl Cochrane MIN 24 82.55
Yamid Sierra TOR 27 82.41
Brady Reese MNT 31 82.38
Wes Davies OK 24 82.37
Tim Lincoln AUS 28 82.20
Jon Zentmeyer CSP 27 82.09
Cliff Brocail MNT 27 81.85
Barry Durocher STL 31 81.27
Heath DeRosa HAR 27 81.15
Buddy Munoz LV 28 80.83
Aaron Cooke SAL 33 80.78
Danys Ramirez LOU 22 80.77
Jim Stewart RIC 30 80.47
Victor Maradona LV 27 80.44
Kirk Jenkins NY1 30 80.36
Paul Ogawa MNT 21 80.30
Carlos Martin IND 29 80.18
Will Ford ATL 30 80.16
Lawrence Trammell BOS 23 79.94
Ralph Kydd CH2 32 79.62
Ernest Strange FLA 34 79.05
Miguel Cruz CIN 21 78.87
Don Melhuse SLC 26 78.78
Alex Cordero NY1 23 78.64
Julio Guerrero MEM 29 78.61
Geoff Leonard NY1 25 78.41
Rudy Griffiths CLE 28 78.21
Otis Martin SAC 27 78.21
Thom House ARI 29 77.99
T.J. Hornsby LV 29 77.70
Brian Maeda LOU 32 77.58
Buddy Parrish CH2 32 77.33
Sammy Vega LA 31 77.27
Happy McNamara ARI 27 77.05
Willie Hawkins HAR 31 76.89
Archie Saunders CLE 30 76.77
Mark Bradley TOR 24 76.61
Gus Andrews AUS 29 76.42
Pedro Mesa SFE 23 76.30
Yogi Lieberthal HOU 30 76.17
Joe Hansen HAR 28 76.08
Eli Oliva CIN 22 76.05
Timothy Bryne HOU 23 75.90
Sammy Dillon CIN 30 75.63
Dennis Burnitz IND 24 75.48
Hong-Jin Ramirez LA 34 75.40
Preston Riggs WAS 29 75.14
Stewart Stieb CH2 26 75.11
Cristobal Alvarez SAC 31 75.11
Juan Castillo FLA 30 74.78
Ben Busby SAL 27 74.19
Achilles McMurtry MON 28 74.14
Greg Brinkley NY1 29 74.06

Monday, June 11, 2007

Predictions for Division Winners and Wild Cards

Well check these in 75 days and see how close they are

AL North Chicago Chicago Chicago Chicago
AL East NY Washington Indy NY
AL South Texas Memphis Texas Memphis
AL West Scottsdale Scottsdale Scottsdale Scottsdale





Wild Card Salem Salem Minnesota Minnesota
Wild Card Memphis NY Sacremento Sacremento





NL North St. Louis St. Louis Toronto St. Louis
NL East Hartford Hartford Louisville Hartford
NL South Houston Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta
NL West Colorado S. Arizona Arizona Colorado S.





Wild Card Richmond Louisville St. Louis Richmond
Wild Card Louisville Cleveland Houston Cleveland

Sunday, June 10, 2007

Biggest Off-season waves

Below is the list of 10 teams that made the most waves during the off-season/free agency period. This list focussed on FA and trades, not minor league call ups.

St. Louis Bluebirds – Made the biggest splash in free agency when they signed All-Star caliber SP’s Joel Coleman, BC Sierra, and Donald Nakajima, plus an offense minded C in Barry Durocher. They focused on pitching, and now have a world class pitching rotation, but you can’t win games 0-0 and they will need to find offense somewhere.

Houston Texans – Picked up perennial all-star/MVP candidate Tim Smith. They bolstered their bullpen with a young closer in Ralph Kell, and solid setup men in Placido Ayala and Moises Ordaz. Adding a star player and patching up their bullpen should put this team on the short list of championship contenders.

Salem Mad Monks - Didn’t sign the hottest names on the market (like last season) but made a couple of solid RP signings and picked up a top notch defensive SS. This is exactly what this team needed, the fastest way to fix a bad defense is to get a superior defensive SS. Their solid SP core will appreciate having a great closer.

Chicago Knights - This team didn’t need much to improvement. They didn’t sign the best FA on the market, but they might have signed the best FA for them. Buddy Parrish will add punch to their potent lineup while helping out the pitching staff too. Plus they re-signed their closer to one more season.

Boston Blood Sox – This team did a modest amount to help their ML staff. Traded for young SS, signed power hitting Michael Hernandez, and 2B Jim Purcell. But they really added to minor league system by adding four young guys that should all make the majors. Obviously their plan is to build a solid foundation for this team in the future, even all their FA signing were young players.

Scottsdale Mad Jesters – A curious off-season for this team. They lost Cy Young winner Coleman, and gold glove 2b/leadoff hitter Sikorski, then traded All-Star 3B Tim Smith. Teams usually don’t improve by getting rid of great pitching, gold glove defense, and power hitters. What they did do was trade for last year NL ROY Benji Clark, sign a washed up season 1 Cy Young winner JP Mercado, perfectly average SP Garrett Judd, and OF Kyle Carroll. They do have 6 picks in the top 75 draft picks so something can be said about not giving up on the future, but should they have focussed more on the current.

Sacramento Air Force - Their big move this year was to trade for Dorian Tracy, a young SP who has pinpoint control and is very effect against righties. They also resigned Mac Ramirez and signed 2B Carlos Lee. Not a bad off-season for them, but they will be asking if it was enough to catch the Mad Jesters.

Memphis Elvi – They went for quality over quantity. Signed Eric Monroe, a pitcher with the stuff to be an ace, but has not yet played for a team that has gotten the best out of him. His huge contract obviously kept them from making many other deals, but they are a solid team and he should do well for them.

NY Mugger Funk – Traded for Phil Hernandez and Kiki Lopez, both are under 26 years old and solid players. Hoping they return to their season 2 forms when both had better than .425 OBP. Plus he resigned Kirk Jenkins at a reasonable rate for the next two seasons.

Montreal Beaver Tails – Signed a top of the order OF in Louis Henderson and an interesting SP in Vladimir Johnson. They can really make a statement on the draft since they now own picks 3, 18, 33, and 38

Friday, June 8, 2007

BEST INTERNATIONAL SIGNINGS – AL SOUTH – SEASON ONE

1) Best Value

The New Orleans Zephyrs spent $560K to sign Dominican 2B Santiago Padilla, and the Texas Black Socks could benefit greatly from the previous GM’s discovery.

Padilla has spent the last three seasons in Low A, which is amazing when you look at his numbers during that time frame: a .309 batting average, 198 RBIs, 199 runs scored. He’s currently listed on the High A roster, but don’t be surprised to see him promoted to AA before the end of the year.

While he is not strong in any particular attribute, he’s consistently average across the board. Padilla could end up as a backup in the majors, making him a decent value.


2) Lowest Production Per Dollar

SS Andres Valenzuela has a career .347 batting average and a 1.013 OPS over 4 seasons in A ball. After a season with a .328 batting average, 24 HR, and 157 RBI, Andres seemed ripe for a promotion to AA or possibly even AAA. His $1.3 million signing bonus seemed like a bargain for New Orleans, and Texas appeared to inherit a future major leaguer.

So why did he retire?

My guess: wasn’t promoted quickly enough

My guess at the lack of promotion: 242 errors in 522 games

My solution: move him to another position

This may be the biggest bungling of a potential major leaguer yet.


3) Best Overall

There are a few great signings worthy of this award.

Texas has a bargain in RF Del Sosa, who signed for $1.6 million. He put up impressive stats in High A last year, hitting .344 with 16 HR, 90 RBIs, and 38 steals in only 425 at bats. It’s hard to understand why he wasn’t in High A before Season 3, as he hit .339 in over 1200 at bats in Low A. He’s currently on the High A roster, but one wonders if he should be in AA or higher at this point. His speed and ability to hit left handers imply that he’ll be a platoon OF at worst on the major league level.

The Nashville Sounds get credit for a solid signing in 3B Hector Mercedes, currently playing for the Santa Fe Locomotive’s High A squad. After not playing after his signing in Season 1, Mercedes played one season in each of the lowest 3 levels of the minors and proved he is ready for another promotion. Last year in High A, Hector hit .346, hit 17 HRs, and drove in 117 RBIs while playing moderate defense at the hot corner. As long as he doesn’t become a defensive liability, Mercedes looks primed to claim a spot in the Locomotive’s major league lineup within 2 years.


***this post was authored by Chrispy. ***

Wednesday, June 6, 2007

BEST INTERNATIONAL SIGNINGS – AL EAST – SEASON ONE

The owners of the Indianapolis Hoosierdaddies and Florida Phoenix aren’t cursing their previous GMs, mainly because neither the Baltimore Terrapins nor the Trenton Titans signed any International players that affect Indy and Florida respectively.

That leaves two of the Morgan originals, the Washington DC War Criminals and the New York Mugger Funk.

1) Best Value

The cheapest Washington signing is arguably one of their best. Pasqual Olivares was signed for $380K and currently sits in DC’s AA rotation. The pitcher’s first three seasons were in Low A, where he went from a starter to a reliever. Olivares compiled an 11-7 record, converted 7 of 8 save opportunities (including a perfect 6-of-6 in his third year), and a 1.34 WHIP ratio while in Low A. Season 4 saw Pasqual promoted to High A, where he joined the rotation and went 6-8 with a 3.97 ERA in 23 starts.

Olivares could possibly end up as a long reliever in the majors if he stays in the rotation, but he might find more success in returning to the bullpen. Either way, Olivares in the majors for that little of a signing bonus would be an impressive feat.

2) Lowest Production Per Dollar

He’s spent the majority of the last two seasons in AAA, sporting a 9-10 record in 57 starts. In 32 starts last year, he had a 4.78 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. He has impressive velocity (97!), but shaky control (56, projected to 66).

He’s Alex Gutierrez, currently listed as a long reliever for the AAA Mugger Funk. He could end up back in the AAA rotation this season and will probably be promoted to the majors if he shows even moderate success.

Why the promotion, you ask?

His signing bonus was $7.2 million.

Gotta get that investment back somehow.


3) Best Overall

Washington SS Orlando Flores has outstanding range, a great glove, and solid power for a middle infielder. After an impressive two years moving from Low A to AA, Flores started Season 3 in AAA and hit .271, 19 HRs, 94 RBIs, and stole 16 bases before being promoted to the majors.

Season 4 saw Flores start 149 games at shortstop with an impressive .971 fielding percentage. He struggled with his average (.241) but hit 17 HRs, drove in 90 runs, and stole 14 bases. If his batting average improves, Flores could be the biggest steal of the Season 1 International class at only $1.9 million.

Updated FA List - with signings

Starting Pitchers - There are more high end SPs available this year than in the previous seasons.

Joel Coleman – Cy Young winner in season 4, set the single season record for wins and threw 10CG last season and had a 3.62 ERA in a hitter park. He is 34 years old.
Eric Monroe - Arguably the best FA pitcher available, only 31 and no major flaws.
Matt Charles - Among the best pitchers in the league before injury. Still can pitch, but stamina took a hit after his season 3 injury and can't go 9 innings every 4 days anymore. Washington re-signed
Terrence Davis - One of the league's best SP, but age is starting to show. Career leader in Wins. Louisville re-signed
BC Sierra - Tough season 4, but season 3 he was 17-8 2.75. Career leader in WHIP. Older but still can pitch.
Donald Nakajima - Only 32 and has a 56-24 4.21 career numbers.
Hector Romero - Control is a major problem, but best L/R splits in the league. Only pitcher that can overcome that poor control. Can dominate in pitchers park. Career K leader.
Mac Ramirez – Mac won’t be an all-star, but will be a perfect #4 SP. He has the control and pitch ratings to keep you in every game, consistently average. Sacremento re-signed
Vic Green - Will save your bullpen with his stamina, last 2 seasons sub 4.00 ERA
Flip Lawrence - Might have one last season in him, but could be a back of the rotation SP.


Relief Pitchers - Some good players, but RPs can be a hit or miss signing

Dwight Marshall - one of the league's best setup men, dur means he can pitch every other day
Alvin Mills - a Closer that can be very good, has 3 "plus" pitches. Washington re-signed
Chris Santangelo - His season 3 stats were some of the leagues best ever, career leader in Saves.
Andre Star – Sure he’s old at 36, but he has posted sub 4.00 era past three seasons and keeps the ball in the park. He’s got at least one if not two good years left.
Joel Fox - Alternates good and bad years - season 5 should be good.
Daniel Malone - Top 5 career saves leader, but heading towards the end of his career.
Phillip Redmond - Good rating but has played for some bad teams, GB/FB ratio suited for pitchers park

Nolan Cookson – This guy is ancient at 38, but his ratings are still decent and had a 3.28 ERA in 57 innings last season.
Garret Judd - Has SP ratings, but performed horrible as a SP. Put up solid closer stats.


Position Players -

Preston Riggs - Has superior power, speed, and obp. The #1 FA hitter. Washington re-signed
Will Sikorski – A top notch leadoff hitter. #5 on career hits list and a .379 career OBP.
Greg Mathews - Tremendous Power hitting C.
Augie Dunston - Good OF with a high OBP. 2nd in career walks.
Kyle Carroll - #3 on career list for SB, good BE and vR ratings.
Hong-Jin Ramirez - Great L/R splits, career .897 OPS.
Barry Durocher - #2 Career OBP for the league. Perfect for hitting second in a lineup.
Kris Jenkins - Well rounded player, could compliment any lineup.
Steve Thomas - A powerful bat and only 27 years old.
Ryan Toombs - Great fielding SS - 3rd in career SS fielding %.
Louie Palacios - Great hitter, but might be getting too old to play SS.
Eddie McClellan - Exceptional switch hitting lead-off batter, has speed and OBP. 5th in career walks. Toronto re-signed
Lois Henderson – A great glove OF. He hit both lefties and righties, in the mold of a leadoff or #2 hitter.
Napoleon Watters - Strictly power hitting 3B, but good at it.
Buddy Parrish - Good hitting C that has above average PC rating.
Charles Wang - Exceptional speed goes with an above average bat.

Tuesday, June 5, 2007

BEST INTERNATIONAL SIGNINGS – AL NORTH – SEASON ONE

1) Best Value

Catchers rule this category for the AL North.

The Chicago Knights were the big value winners with their impressive duo of international catchers. The best value is C Domingo Romero, currently on Chicago’s AA roster. Romero signed for $380K and didn’t make a plate appearance in Season One, but has a career minor league batting average of .345 and helped his pitchers post a 4.30 ERA in games that he caught last season. Romero could end up in the majors as a backup when it’s all said and done.

The other Chicago catcher signing was Denny Dong, currently in High A. Denny signed for $240K and hit .285 in 110 games in High A last season. His career average of .304 makes him a candidate for promotion, possibly by midseason. However, with most of his appearances being at DH, he will have to develop behind the plate to have any chance at the majors.

Honorable mention goes to Milwaukee C Edgardo Johnson. Originally signed as a St. Louis Destroyer, the franchise’s volatility did not affect Johnson’s production. A career .305 hitter, Johnson signed for $280K and could have easily won this category if not for a late season stumble after being promoted to AA. Edgardo will likely produce in a full season at AA and could end up in a catcher platoon at the major league level.

2) Lowest Production Per Dollar

While investigating the AL North’s signings, it appeared that Minnesota’s Season 1 class was saved by signing Omar Chavez. The other players that were signed (pitchers Victor Dominguez, Orber Jacquez, Hideo Ramirez, & Al Tatis combined with RF Pedro Rodriguez) could all be considered busts for Minnesota. Only Jacquez (Boston High A) is currently under contract; only Rodriguez could be had as a free agent, as the other signings announced their retirements. Total cost to Minnesota for these players: $1.72 million.

Then I bumped into the first incarnation of the current Montreal Beaver Tails.

Originally the Pawtucket Fighting Amish, the Tails signed nine international prospects in Season 1. Their top four signings were pitchers Miguel Fernandez, Ramon Torres, and Santiago Calderon along with 2B RJ Belliard.

Both Fernandez and Torres received $1.6 million to sign with the Amish. Fernandez sits in AAA with a minor league career record of 24-30, a 6.74 ERA, and a 1.82 WHIP. Relief pitcher Torres is the rollercoaster of this group, currently in High A coming off of a season where he pitched 42 innings with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. Not bad, right? The year prior: 40 innings, 8.10 ERA, 2.08 WHIP. The year before that? 48 innings, 6.14 ERA, 1.47 WHIP. Not exactly a guy you can count on in AA, much less a future in the majors. Calderon is also unlikely to pay dividends after an inexplicable promotion from Rookie ball in Season One to AAA in Season Two. Calderon was shelled for two seasons before “producing” a 6-12 record, 4.75 ERA, and 1.66 WHIP in 121 innings last season.

Montreal may be able to salvage Belliard, who has spent 3 seasons in Rookie ball despite hitting well above .330 during that time frame. Last season, Belliard jumped up to High A and saw limited duty. If given regular playing time this season, he could return to form.

Total cost for Pawtucket’s top 4 signings: $5.12 million.

The lesson: Invest in International scouting.


3) Best Overall

The best overall signing appears to be Chicago’s Damaso Estrada, who received a $1.5 million signing bonus. Originally a shortstop, Estrada was moved to second base and appears to have found a home. His speed (193 SBs in 390 minor league games) along with his .344 average and .426 on-base percentage make him the future Knights leadoff hitter.

Honorable mentions go to:
- Minnesota RF Omar Chavez, currently in AAA and averaging .300+ in his minor league career
- Milwaukee’s Albie Servet, recently moved to 2B and coming off of a .283 / 28 HR / 119 RBI season in AA


***this post was authored by Chrispy ***

BEST INTERNATIONAL SIGNINGS – NL SOUTH – SEASON ONE

1) Best Value

The International market is ripe with players, but the top players will not come cheaply. Getting that diamond in the rough for as little as possible can bump a team into playoff contention a little faster.

Right now, the best value prize would probably go to Jacob Perez, who played the majority of last season in Atlanta’s AA affiliate. The CF hit over .300 and earned a cup of coffee with the AAA squad before the ultimate promotion to the majors. Jacob signed for a mere $1.1 million, surprising for a guy that hits righties well and has above average speed. He’s currently on Atlanta’s trade block.

In a year or two, this award could easily go to Austin’s Tony Alomar. Having also signed for $1.1 million, the lightning-quick 2B tore his way through A ball, putting up consecutive seasons with 25+ HRs and an average above .350. Last year saw him struggle a little in AA, hitting only .267 but notching his second consecutive season with 25 steals. It is anticipated that he will inherit the starting 2B job at the major league level with a solid season at AAA.

2) Lowest Production Per Dollar

The bad news is that the current Houston Texans franchise claims this honor. The good news is that the current owner had nothing to do with the signing.

The then-Charlotte Crusaders signed Willie Tavarez after offering a $2.5 million signing bonus. The 18-year old catcher happily signed the contract, then produced impressive offensive numbers (.366/.459/.667, 13 HR, 61 RBIs) in 183 A-ball at bats.
Apparently the franchise’s new owner did not have the same infatuation that Charlotte’s owner had for Tavarez. For some unknown reason, Tavarez only had 47 at bats in his second season despite being promoted to AA. (Odd fact: Tavarez appeared as a PITCHER in 66 games.) In his 3rd season, he found himself shuttled between AA and Rookie ball, often DHing instead of playing behind the plate. He continued to produce offensively, but apparently grew frustrated with only 400 at bats over 3 seasons.

The now-22 year old retired prior to last season and wonders what could have been if he had signed with a more stable franchise.

3) Best Overall

An argument can be made that Austin P Oswaldo Veras has the most potential of any International signing. The lefty signed for $3 million and is a 5 pitch starter with good velocity. After a few so-so seasons in the minors, Season 3 saw Veras start in AA and earn a promotion to AAA after 15 stars with a sub-3.00 ERA and a WHIP under 1.20. His first full season in AAA was promising, finishing 7-6 with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. It appears Veras will join the Austin major league rotation with a solid Season 5.

However, in terms of overall value, it is hard to argue with Atlanta SS prospect Ismael Medrano. The 22 year old Dominican signed for $2.4 million and responded with a .340 batting average in his first 3 seasons in the minors. Last year saw him start the season in AA before earning a promotion to AAA, hitting .300 with 15 HRs and 75 RBIs. All arrows point to Medrano being the Atlanta SS of the future.

If there was any question on why Atlanta is successful, a mere glance at their International signing success should remind owners the importance of a great GM.

***Chrispy is the author of this report.***

Saturday, June 2, 2007

AL West Team Notes

Sacramento Air Force 113-49

Best Players – Rafael Cedeno, Cristobal Alvarez, Mike Andrews, Clay Reese

Rankings 2nd Offense, 2nd Pitching, 14th Fielding

Team Notes - When the longtime owner of this proud franchise left there after missing the playoffs there was fear this team would lose its prominent stature. Instead they enjoyed their best season yet. Through a series of trades that focused on pitching this team was able to post the 2nd best record in the entire league. Cedeno is the famous season 2 IFA that was signed straight to the majors, and has lived up to his billing. Its very hard to find a flaw on this team, one issue might be outside of Eric Borders there is not a lot of star potential in their minor system (probably due to all the winning and picking so late in the first round.) Will they be able to catch the defending champs next year is the question on their minds.

Salem Mad Monks 85-77

Best Players – Aaron Cooke, Jose Lee, JC Russell

Rankings 5th Offense, 26th Pitching, 26th Fielding

Team Notes – This team played in Colorado in season 4, but made the move to Salem for season 5. This was a Jekyll and Hyde team with the 4th best road ERA in the league for season 4, but the next to last home ERA in the league. The move was taken with a sigh of relief by the two high priced (and best) FA SP pickups they had in Lee and Russell, and guys like Cooke can hit anywhere. Felipe Espinosa could provide some help to the ML squad this season, and they also are not scared to pull off a big trade if needed.

Salt Lake City Bonnevilles 69-93

Best Players – Dustin Sutton, Raul Gonzalez, Alfredo Campbell, Darwin Stewart

Rankings – 15th Offense, 29th Pitching, 20th Fielding

Team Notes – The Bonnie’s have had problems with stability, but their win totals are heading in the right direction for the first time since season 1. On the offensive side they have good young players and should improve on their 15th league ranking as those guys mature. Plus if Don Melhouse is brought up that will certainly be a surge to the team. Pitching is their area of greatest need. Sutton is a solid SP, but he’s 36 and past him they don’t have a lot of depth in that area.

Scottsdale Mad Jesters 121-41

Best Players – Rusty Jones, Tim Smith, Eric Thomas, Earl Wilkerson

Rankings – 1st Offense, 5th Pitching, 5th Fielding

Team notes - The Mad Jesters used the long ball to win their second WS in a row. 9 Players had at least 25 HR on their way to hitting a league leading 418 HR. They have an acceptable group of SP’s, but will miss Cy Young winner Joel Coleman who declined his option. Harry Roque will make the jump from AAA this year and should balance the RH heavy lineup. They still will need to find a replacement lead off hitter since Sikorski also declined his mutual option. While this team should still be good, age and free agency is starting to take its toll. A team not bothered to trade anyone, they are looking to keep their window open one more year.

Friday, June 1, 2007

NL West (307-341)

Arizona Scottsdale – 85-77
Best Players –
Dick Yeats, Doug Connelly, Jim Jeffries

Team Rankings – 24th Pitching, 12th Hitting, 13th Fielding

Team Notes – In a season in which they saw their wins decrease by 8, Arizona still won the division by 4 games. 4 straight division titles, is anyone in this division capable of knocking Arizona off their perch? With Rico Bravo and Ned Hawkins on the verge of breaking into full-time major league pitchers, this could be another year of divisional victory for Arizona. 26 year old Ralph Becker pitched strong in AA, but with sub-par control, likely will not contribute at the major league level. With a repeat of the season that Yeats had, this team could very well continue to rule the roost that is the NL West.

Albuquerque Cowboys – 81-81 (Colorado Spring Chickens)
Best Players –
Dorian Tracy, Randy Pember, Del Martinez

Team Rankings – 8th Pitching, 26th Hitting, 20th Fielding

Team Notes – Although a solid, not spectacular franchise, 81-81 qualified as their worst finish in four years. No worse than a .500 record in any year, yet no playoff appearances to show for it. With solid pitching both at the major league level and in the minors, it appears that this team is either going to have to swing some trades for some offense or figure out a way to rely and win with pitching. Raul Pena and Fred Blake could be contributing by season’s end, while Walt Welsh could contribute in a pinch if needed.

Los Angeles Dodgers – 73-89 (OPEN)
Best Players –
Mark Lee, Sammy Vega, Clayton McCartney

Team Rankings – 15th Pitching, 31st Hitting, 30th Defense

Team Notes – This team had it’s best season ever, and was taken over in early season by a very aggressive owner. He made several trades and aggressively tried to improve the team. With a solidly stocked minor league system that includes AAA prospects Tony Espinosa, Derek Griffin and Ted Griffiths, this team appears to be a year away from competing, but when those guys are ready, the West had better be ready for a steamroller to come through.

Las Vegas Gamblers – 68-94
Best Players –
T.J. Hornsby, Kiki Lopez, Buddy Munoz

Team Rankings – 28th Pitching, 24th Hitting, 27th Fielding

Team Notes – With its worst finish in 4 years of existence, this original franchise has itself poised to make a run at the West and possibly dethrone the Arizona franchise, if not this year, then next. With one of the younger NL teams, a key acquisition or two, or solid contributions from William Matthews or Eugene Farrell, this team could break out this season.

NL South (338-310)

Atlanta Braves – 107-55
Best Players –
Vic Saenz, Bey Bunckly, Banjo Melhuse

Team Rankings – 4th Pitching, 16th Hitting, 10th Fielding

Team Notes – After a 4th straight winning season, and second straight division title, Atlanta still does not have a World Series championship. After winning the league championship in season 3, they made it to the LCS in season 4, but fell to the Harpoons. With a very deep returning roster and several prospects (Benji Marichal, Vic Ortiz, and Ismael Medrano) ready to make the leap, this team looks to continue its dominance over the south.

Houston Texans – 86-76
Best Players –
Steve Taylor, Willie Liriano, David Pineiro

Team Rankings – 19th Pitching, 19th Hitting, 22nd Fielding

Team Notes – After finishing a season which saw the franchise record its third winning season out of four in existence, yet fail to make the playoffs for the third straight season, things are looking difficult for this franchise. Their minor league system does not look to have many players ready to contribute or ready to be brought up but may end up seeing time in the majors due to the pending exodus of major league talent leaving this team. I look for the Houston franchise to be a major offseason player in order to knock Atlanta from its perch atop the division.

Austin Wranglers – 73-89
Best Players – Antonio Torres, Donnie McFeely, Ralph Taylor

Team Rankings – 18th Pitching, 25th Hitting, 15th Fielding

Team Notes – Season 4 was a rough season for one of the original franchises of the Morgan World. That season saw them record the first losing season of their existence. Players such as Vicente Garza (AA), Vic Morales (AA), Oswaldo Veras (AAA), and Ernie Rizzuto (AAA) may need to be counted on to contribute heavily if this team looks to compete for the division crown.

San Juan Expos – 72-90 – Monterrey Habaneros
Best Players –
Pablo Johnson, Benito Vazquez, Sammy Mercado

Team Rankings – 22nd Pitching, 22nd Hitting, 19th Fielding

Team Notes – Under new ownership for season 5, it remains to be seen how this team will perform with the veteran leadership of thedutchman (368-280, 1 div. title in 4 seasons). The top two players on this team are up for arbitration and the AAA/AA cupboard is somewhat bare, so it will be interesting to see how thedutchman approaches this offseason.