Friday, June 27, 2008

Pitching Projections

I know I posted on the World Chat that I was going to be an analysis/projection on some of the pitchers in our World to attempt to project them throughout a career. My first choice was Earl Wilkerson. I compared him to Greg Maddux. That was really just a hunch. As I looked deeper though, they are very comparable. Wilkerson has averaged 156 K's per season for his career while Maddux's 162-game average is 155. 46 walks for Maddux versus 77 per season for Wilkerson, but the comparison will have to do.

I can't really explain what I did very well, but here it goes.
1st 4 years of the career - Maddux w% was .526 with a decision % of 81.2%.
I took the 81.2% minus 73.4% (Wilkerson's career decision percentage for the 8 seasons of data that we have). This gave me 7.8%. I adjusted each of Maddux's first four full seasons down by this amount to determine the projected/predicted number of decisions Wilkerson would have had in his first four seasons. I did the same thing with the winning percentage, only this time adjusting Wilkerson's wins upwards based on the fact that his career W% was higher than Maddux's. I did the same thing for the final 9 seasons of Wilkerson's career.

The final projection for Wilkerson is a record of 365-141. Let me know if what I did makes sense and if anybody would be interested in more of these...

Monday, June 16, 2008

World Series Factoids

Season 1 - Toronto (NL) defeats Washington, DC (AL) 4-3
Pitching - 16th; ERA - 5.02
Batting - 16th; RS - 1,003
Fielding - 5th; F% - 98.2%

Season 2 - Washington, DC (AL) defeats St. Louis (NL) 4-0
Pitching - 1st; ERA - 4.32
Batting - 22nd; RS - 1,058
Fielding - 6th; F% - 98.3%

Season 3 - Scottsdale (AL) defeats Atlanta (NL) 4-1
Pitching - 10th; ERA - 4.62
Batting - 2nd; RS - 1,137
Fielding - 10th; F% - 98.1%

Season 4 - Scottsdale (AL) defeats Hartford (NL) 4-1
Pitching - 5th; ERA - 4.11
Batting - 1st; RS - 1,318
Fielding - 5th; F% - 98.4%

Season 5 - Atlanta (NL) defeats Sacramento (AL) 4-1
Pitching - 2nd; ERA - 4.40
Batting - 7th; RS - 1,060
Fielding - 16th; F% - 97.8%

Season 6 - New York (AL) defeats Atlanta (NL) 4-2
Pitching - 8th; ERA - 4.82
Batting - 2nd; RS - 1,153
Fielding - 2nd; F% - 99.2%

Season 7 - Boston (NL) defeats Sacramento (AL) 4-1
Pitching - 14th; ERA - 5.00
Batting - 17th; RS - 912
Fielding - 5th; F% - 99.1%

Season 8 - New York (AL) defeats Atlanta (NL) 4-0
Pitching - 3rd; ERA - 4.25
Batting - 7th; RS - 979
Fielding - 4th; F% - 99.0%

World Series Winners (seasons)
Scottsdale - 2 (3, 4)
New York - 2 (6, 8)
Toronto - 1 (1)
Washington, DC - 1 (2)
Atlanta - 1 (5)
Boston - 1 (7)

World Series Appearances (seasons)
Atlanta - 4 (3, 5, 6, 8)
Washington, DC - 2 (1, 2)
Scottsdale - 2 (3, 4)
Sacramento - 2 (5, 7)
New York - 2 (6, 8)
Toronto - 1 (1)
St. Louis/Monterrey - 1 (2)
Hartford - 1 (4)
Boston - 1 (7)

Championships
AL - 5
NL - 3

Wins
AL - 25
NL - 16

Friday, June 6, 2008

Last one (sorry it took so long)

NL West

Colorado Creampuffs- ($18.75m/year) This franchise’s only two international signings in the previous five seasons were Pascual Espinosa and William Hukata. Here’s to warswics turning things around, assuming he wants to invest in this area. Colorado has two international prospects on the current roster, and a grade of F.

Anaheim Redbirds- ($9.5m/year) Since taking over, hopkinsheel has reduced the international budget to zero and lowered his prospect budget to the minimum, instead focusing on training and scouting for the amateur draft. Still, before his arrival, there were two notable signings. In season 6 the franchise landed Antonio Nakamura, who has great velocity, and in season 5 signed Al Rivera, who will be a good case study in investigating the importance of pitch ratings. This team also has two international on the ML club, and a C+ grade.

Las Vegas Gamblers- ($14.25m/year) robbie04, despite never spending a whole lot on int’l scouting, has signed a remarkable seventeen total internationals in the past four seasons, but none for more than $2.5 million. Most noteworthy are Hawk Swann, Willie Mercedes, and Emil Julio, and Octavio Guevara, and despite this depth the impact at the ML level wont be great. This team also has two internationals on the ML team, and a grade here of C-.

Arizona Scottsdale- ($24.75m/year) Season 4 was wonderin32’s biggest season on the IFA market, and since then he has only signed 4 players, all of whom are decent, but not all of whom one would expect to make the Bigs. The best asset acquired is David Mendoza’s bat, but by Doug Connelly’s standards it is meek. William Hayashiand Javier Paniagua are both pitchers who are maybes for the majors, but I expect Hayashi to work out as a back of the rotation starter. Last, Luis Sanchez has an okay bat, but lacks the tools necessary to make him more than a bench player. This team merits a C+ grade, and currently has five IFAs on the big league roster.

Monday, June 2, 2008

IFAs

AL West

Salem mad monks- ($13.25m/year) In season 5 buckeyejeff hired no one to scout players internationally, whereas in Season 8 he poured 12 million into this endeavor. Never a big time player on this scene, he’s still landed a smattering of players with shots at playing a role on the ML club at some point. Benny Garces is by far the best signee, and should contribute in the bullpen. Beyond him is just average talent like Fausto Gutierrez and Yorvit Escobar. Salem has 1 int’l on the ML roster, and a D grade.

Scottsdale Snowbirds- ($24.5m/year) This franchise, back in season 2, signed Placido Gil at the ripe age of 13. They learned from this, and would later sign Karim Feliz in Season 8 for $17 million, who should turn out to be a super-reliever at the ML level; if he throws less than 162 innings, he will have been under-utilized. After him, there are a whole lot of okay players, but no one possessing any eye-popping tools, such as Vicente Cabrera, Carlos Johnson, and Julio Polanco. This team also has only one international on the big leagues squad, and a grade here of C+.

Vancouver Shrugging Atlases- ($27m/year) I hate to say it, but once again TheJester74 has done a great job. His pick ups here include two defensive short stops, Rigo Vizcaino and Guillermo Roque, an offensive catcher Trenidad Macias, and a good bull pen arm Pedro Figureoa. And while Vic Solano wont make this team despite a $9.5 million bonus, Orlando Martin and his $12.3 million bonus were instrumental in acquiring Hersh Knight. 2 internationals on the current Vancouver roster, and a grade of A-.

Salt Lake City Air Force- ($15.75m/year) Before willcatfan’s arrival this franchise signed Rafael Cedeno in season 2, our world’s first big time, ML ready signee. Since then, there has been a steady flow of quality talent with defensive SS Quilvio Molina, and the very solid Harry Gonzales. Moreover, he signed pitchers Javier Ugueto and Louie Posada, who were subsequently sent to Boise in trades for ML ready bats. This team garnishes an A- grade as well, having 5 internationals on the current big league roster.

Sunday, June 1, 2008

IFA's

To those who are new to Morgan, this is a review of the last four seasons of International Free Agent signings in Morgan world. Their posted one division at a time (still two to go), but if you look back on the blog you can see how your franchise's previous owwner did in that department. Without further ado...

NL South

Louisville Wild Turkeys- ($22.5m/year) t2bott has made really only one big signing, and a handful of minor pickups in the IFA market. But that one bigger signing was Jumbo, that is, Jumbo Soriano, who lacks the stamina to be a regular starter, but should make for a great long reliever. Included in those minor signings are Jose Romero, who has great velocity, and Pedro Cueto, who may make the ML team as a speed guy off the bench. Currently Miguel Santos is the only IFA on the big league squad, and a grade here of C-.

Atlanta Braves- ($27m/year) Since season 1 joemac55 has been the best in Morgan in the IFA market, with an astounding nine players on the current ML team signed internationally. In each of the past four seasons Atlanta has signed a player with a bonus over $9 million. Season 5 brought Ivan Gonzalez, a stellar fielder with some speed. Season 6, Alex Rivas a solid defensive shortstop with pop. Season 7 saw the signing of Ivan Johnson, a nice corner outfielder. Then Season 8 brought Ramiro Suarez, an offensively minded second baseman. Thus, an A grade for Atlanta.

Monterrey Habaneros- ($26.25m/year) The franchise thedutchman took over in season 5 needed rebuilding, of which signing internationals has been a big part. Here, I see four names worth mentioning. First is Tomas Guerrero, who’ll be the starting SS in years to come. Next is Frank Sasaki, who ought to be the future closer for this team. Then there are pitchers Kevin Chen and Victor Ramirez, who both have flaws, but whose strengths are good enough to break through at the ML level. Overall a B+ grade for a team that has 2 IFAs on the current roster.

Austin Wranglers- ($26m/year) Each of the last six seasons chrispy has steadily been increasing the amount of money allotted to signing prospects. While there has been a high volume of prospects signed, none receive a bonus larger than $7 million dollars. That includes Vinny Hukata, who will start for this team if he can stay healthy, Jose Flores who has a lot of pop in his bat, and Benji Perez who should find a spot in the bullpen as a lefty specialist. This team has 5 intl’s on the big league club, and a grade here of C-.