Monday, December 31, 2007

Third

NL West


Las Vegas Gamblers- It’s never easy to say, but at first glance this system appears impoverished. There are a few good players here, but for this first-place team the future doesn’t exactly offer a lot to mortgage. But I imagine robbie04 won’t be surprised in reading this, as he seems to be a sort of renegade owner in his skimping on scouting in order to carry Morgan’s second largest payroll. Check the standings; his system earns an F for depth, with a C- for impact. ML team will continue to contend though.

Benji Kelly AAA Cl A- Great splits, his stats in the minors don’t match his ratings
Nigel Rosen LoA RF B- Might reach a 100 contact rating, so an interesting case study into how the contact rating influences a player’s output.
Bob Bonham AA C C+ An above average defender and a prime candidate for a fluky .326 batting average in a given season
Midre Lee HiA Cl C+ Has a relievers stamina and a starters durability, but good ratings
Orlando Mendoza LoA 2B C+ fits better at 3B, he’s got some pop, fluky like Bonham?



Anaheim Red Birds- Brent Oswalt being restrained to bullpen duty is objectionable, as he gives Anaheim a second workhorse starter with Del Martinez. With Donn Gwynn, who is currently loafing on the DL, they give this team its foundation. As the mix of veterans start to leave, Anaheim has the pieces to fill in holes and even upgrade at more than a few of these spots. An enviable system, they’ve earned an A for depth and an A for impact.

Daniel Grace AAA CF A Can hit and can play every position. Absolutely solid.
Phillip McNiel AA 3B A- Curious to see what OPS he hits for with just average contact
Vic Moreno AAA 1B A- Wowzers can this guy hit, but he could break bones in the ball pit at Chuck E Cheese’s
Al Rivera HiA SP A- Great pitcher, may struggle with righties, is an injury risk
Dizzy Garcia HiA 2B B+ Just another sure bet major leaguer, may move to 3B or COF




Arizona Scottsdale- Doug Connelly is like Babe Ruth, or at least if the New York Yankees were actually the New York Los Angeles. But whatever. This is the franchise with Morgan’s first high octane offense back in season 2. Arizona has always had great players, but it has never all come together. Just look at Jim Jeffries. Help is on the way, but it may not be enough soon enough to get Doug a ring. Currently, this team merits a B for impact and a B- for depth.

Emil Fernandez
AAA SP A- Not a stud, but will be a fine ML pitcher, has a forkball!
Torey Gutierrez AA SS B+ Gold glove defense and a tough out against lefty pitching
Sergei McEnroe AAA SS B+ Gold glove defense and a tough out against righty pitching
Pasqual Chavez AA SP B With enough run support, could go 17-13 year in year out
Stephen Banks AA RP B Will have control problems, but can get out tough lefties



Fresno Grizzlies- hooner65, who actually has 65 teams, has an interesting complex of young and veteren talent at the ML level in Fresno. His two Alex’s in the minors will be difference makers on the ML club in the future, and at present he has a deep reserve of non-stud ML capable players in AAA. To be perfectly honest, this is an organization that can consistently compete for a division title in the coming seasons, but as is will not be a serious contender for League Championships. An A- for depth and a B- for impact.

Alex Durazo HiA SP A- Could anchor a four man rotation, can pick runners off of first
Alex Sojo AA RP A- Struggled in AAA, if he gets on track he could post great numbers
Billy Owen AAA RP B Solid ratings, gives up too many HR’s. Destined for Atlanta…
Kevin Sherman AAA C B Would like to see better pitch calling from an every day C
Nolan West LoA SS B- Plenty of defense, average bat should have hot streaks at the dish

Saturday, December 29, 2007

2nd Installment

Seeing as we begin preparing for the amatuer draft on 1/4, I think I might try and up the pace at which I'm putting these things up, but we'll see. Oh, and for today's, I think Texas just made a trade to add some prospects? Something to keep in mind. And also, in retrospect I think I may have been a slightly easier grader on these guys.


AL South


Memphis Elvi- A traditionally strong team, Memphis has several players in the pipeline who can be difference makers upon their arrival to the Bigs. But while Memphis’ system is filled with pitchers, the system is decrepit when it comes to position players. It will be interesting to see what long term solution mh17 finds at shortstop. As such, this team merits a C for depth, but an A- for impact.

Glendon Sabathia LoA SP A An ideal guy for a four man rotation, will be very solid if he reaches his full potential
Tom Waterson AAA Cl A Could pitch 180 innings with an ERA under 4
Tony Guererro AA Cl A- Has health issues, gets out righties like they aren’t holding a bat
Jimmie Richardson AAA C B+ Good pitch calling, good eye and a nice enough bat
Trenidad Gonzalez AA SP B- His stats suggest he may not overcome control problems



Nashville Hound Dogs- With Ernst Stuart and Walker Newfield already playing at the ML level, Nashville’s foundation for the future is already in place. There are a few guys in the minors who could help that building process. Seeing as the Hound Dogs lack a catcher at the Low A level, a depth rating of C seems appropriate, and a B- for impact.

Andrew Clayton HiA RP A With only two pitches, Clayton is destined for long relief
Darryl Finley AA 1B A Ideal slugging 1B, plays no defense, and is an injury risk
Troy Patrick AAA RP B Nothing outstanding here, but will be a good relief pitcher
Ray Ashby AAA 2B B- Decent defense for a 2B, but just an average bat
Larry Carmona HiA LF C+ All around average, but LF demands more power



Santa Fe Locomotives- Brant Stevenson and Jesus James will conduct this pitching staff for many seasons to come, but they shouldn’t expect any help coming up from within the organization. Santa Fe has invested in hitters, and done an excellent job of it, with guys on their way to fill in any holes in the current ML line up. I see this team as deserving an A for impact and a B for depth.

Ed Steele AA RF A Only flaw is having only an average batting eye
Ruben Dali AAA SS A- More range would be nice, but he swings a mean bat
JP Anderson AA 2B A- Highest ceiling of the group, but a very poor health rating
Eduardo Velazquez AAA RP A- Had a disastrous stint in the Majors last season
Bert Simon AA 1B B+ I personally like him more than Eric Borders, may end up at DH



Texas Black Socks- While the ML team is a little down right now, Texas has the minor league system to match Santa Fe going forward. The system boasts a variety of difference makers, should they reach their respective potentials, as well as a full compliment of above average prospects at nearly every position. This organization may only be a few pieces away from competing for Titles in years to come. An A for depth and an A for impact.

Juan Moreno HiA RF A Wields a fantastic bat, but not durable enough to play every day
Marc Priest AA RP A absolutely nothing not to like about this kid
Fausto Martin AAA SP A- pitch ratings are keeping him from an outright A grade
Bill Blauser LoA LF B+ Ugly hair, not a superb bat for LF, but will be fine in the Bigs
Neil Turner AAA 2B B Can really slug for a middle infielder.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

First Installment

Two things, (1) at the end of this we'll do an overall top 30 prospects list and also (2) any whining should be directed at milbredhawk. Thanks.

NL East


Boston Blood Sox- This is a tough system to grade, as Boston has already graduated most of its talent to the ML level, leaving the minors somewhat depleted. Were this assessment taken a season or two ago, Boston would have received a B+ for depth and an A+ for impact, but currently this team merits only a B- for Impact and a C for depth.

Carlos Urbina AAA RF A- Great range for a corner out fielder with a nice bat
J.J. Truby AA Cl B+ May well be the closer of the future for this team
James Hong AAA SP B Graded highly because of an outstanding gb/fb ratio
Javier Polanco AA C B- A good hitter, decent defense, but may be an injury risk
Steve Thompson AAA 3B (SS) B- brings gold glove defense with decent l/r splits



Hartford Harpoons- An established winner at the ML level, Hartford will look to their minor league system to fill holes and provide complimentary players to the guys already up in the next few seasons. A system that backs Carlos Johnson up with 18 1B, Hartford earns a B for depth and a B for impact.

Happy Moore AAA C A- Can rake, but lacks the defense and stamina to play every day
Philip Adams AAA LF A- Not much power for a LF, but is more than capable of getting on base for CJ to knock home
Frank Garcia AA Cl B+ Might have issues with stamina
Ross Snyder AA 2B B Good range and glove, nice splits
Andrew O'Malley HiA SP B- Should develop into a serviceable back or the rotation starter




Wichita Twisters- This system is deep on average bats with outstanding defense. System could use a good true center fielder, as well as an injection of starting pitching. The depth of the system will improve the ML team in the years to come, but one more big time pitcher to help out Craig Walls in the future would make a world of difference. That all amounts to an A- for depth and a B- for impact.

Ivan Martinez LoA 1B A- A great bat, and boasts the worst attitude in Morgan World
Bruce Christman AAA 2B B+ All around solid, may change position due to a weak arm
Felipe Guerrero HiA 3B B Another solid guy, brings solid defense and an average bat
Alberto Matos AA C B Will form a solid platoon at C with Einar Sanchez
Kenneth Aldridge HiA SS B- Could win the gold glove yearly at 3B



New Britain Claymores- Not a pleasant thing to say, but after three straight second place finishes in the division, this franchise may need to take some time to rebuild itself. There are some starters making there way up the pipe line, but no big time sluggers in the minor leagues. For now, a C for depth and a B- for impact.

Brent Collier AAA SP A- Will be a workhorse, but may not reach elite pitcher status
Theodore Buckley HiA SS B+ gold glove defense and can hit lefty pitching well
Larry Wilkinson AA 2B B- fantastic eye, but only an average defender
Vic Morales AAA SP B- Has stamina but no durability, need to see how he’ll be used
Enrique Cortez HiA SP B- could be a great pitcher or struggle with his control problems

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Prospect Report

Okay so I thought something to do with prospects would make for an interesting read on the blog. Here's how it will work, every team (a division at a time) will be given a grade on depth of the minor league system as well as strength of the impact players at the top of the minor league system. Next, each systems top five prospects (in my opinion) will be listed, graded, with a throw away line for those to lazy to actually look the guy up.

I realize that my grading will inevitably be flawed. First, there will be biases in what I look for in prospects, for example I value a good batting eye more than I value power or contact, and a poor health rating scares me away from a guy. Second, I'm trusting my advance scouts, but I have a prety good amount budgeted there. Last, I'm sure the grades wont be perfectly consistent over the whole process, but the important thing I guess is that I'm highlighting the five names to look for.

The grades are intended to hit a bell curve, so to earn an A a guy should be in the top 5% of prospects. For my purposes, an A will be given for a sure bet multi-season all-star, a B for a guy with a shot at becoming an all-star for a season, and a C for just an average major leaguer. For depth, a C prospect at some level at every position merits an A. For impact, and this is hazy, having five guys at a B+ rating or better merits an A. Remember, this is a grade of the minor league system, not of the overall organization. Oh and one more thing, any player currently on the ML roster is left out of the grading.

Here's the schedule:
12/27 NL East
12/29 AL South
12/31 NL West
1/2 AL North
1/4 NL North
1/6 AL East
1/8 NL South
1/10 AL West

So again, this wont be perfect but I don't care, it'll give everyone something to stare at. Enjoy.

Monday, December 24, 2007

Blog Notes

Milbredhawk(Brett) is going to work on an interesting project about ranking teams prospects, he'll do it a division at a time. Should be very interesting.

Until then I noticed a couple of my former players were having good seasons, so I made up an 25 man all-star team of guys that at one point were on the Mad Jesters team. This is probably interesting to only me, but here it is.

Tim Stanley C
Benji Gonzalez C
Jim Stewart 1B/OF
Walker Newfield 2b/3b
Orlando Martin SS/2b
Tim Smith 3B
Victor Unamano SS
Enrique Ruiz RF
Brian Randolf OF
Benj Clark LF
Wes Davies CF
Happy Mcnamara CF
Happy Pressley DH (Two Happy's??? I think the Happy nickname is overused)


Joel Coleman SP1
Vitas Sobkowiak SP2
Danys Guzman SP3
Max Barrios SP4
Ivan Ulrich SP5
Wilt McEnroe LRA
Clay Reese LRA
Fernando Sanchez RP
Gookie Sellers RP
Daniel Malone RP
Steve Childers RP
Ralph Kell RP/CLA

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Division Winner and Wildcard Predicitions

Tables don't post very well in this - so I'm just going to post the times

AL North
Minnesota x5
Chicago

AL East
NY x4
Washington x2

AL South
Memphis x3
Santa Fe
Texas

AL West
Scottsdale x6

AL Wildcard
Washington x3
Chicago x2
NY x2
Sacramento x2
Salem
Indianapolis
Memphis

NL North
St. Louis x5
Cincinnati

NL East
Hartford x5
Boston

NL South
Atlanta x3
Houston x3

NL West
Anaheim x3
Arizona x2
Las Vegas

NL Wildcard
Atlanta x3
Houston x2
Anaheim x2
Hartford
Arizona
Cincinnati
Boston
St. Louis

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

All All-Star Team

Nothing too eye opening here, but there were only 19 repeat all-stars in Season 6 from Season 5. In fact, there are only 10 players who have been all stars for the past three seasons. They are:

PT McNamera, P, Cincinnati Reds
Joel Coleman, P, St Louis Melon Farmers
Al Pena, LF, Hartford Harpoons
Carlos Johnson, 1B, Hartford Harpoons
Vladimir Goya, CF, Cleveland Cleveland Stormtroopers
Jerome Turner, P, Scottsdale Mad Jesters
Earl Wilkerson, P, Scottsdale Mad Jesters
Will Monroe, P, Scottsdale Mad Jesters
Rusty Jones, LF, Scottsdale Mad Jesters
Stan Jackson, SS, Chicago Knights

The teams listed are their current teams, not necessarily the team they have spent the most time with. Earl Wilkerson missed the Season 3 all-star team, but is a five time all-star. Vladimir Goya is a five time all-star as well, elected each season since his rookie year in Season 2. Jerome Turner has also been an all-star since season 2. No player has been an all-star for all six seasons of Morgan World's existence. Suprisingly, another five time all-star, Doug Connelly, 1B, Arizona Scottsdale, who is the best candidate for some sort of non-existant player-of-the-decade award, failed to make the all-star team in Season 5, the result of a down year that saw his stats fall to .317/68/176 (career averages of .356/69/182).

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

As Requested - The Mad Jesters in Last place

S7 Free Agency Review

Here's the list of the 20 most active teams in free agency with some notes. At the bottom I list which teams I think did the best.


Anaheim – Another good FA season. They re-signed Albert Guzman and his career .400 OBP. Plus solid producers in former all-stars Emil Marichal and Dan West at a great price. Vic Green will give them 200 innings. Still the youngest guy they signed was 34 and the average age of the 10 FA’s signed was 36.

Arizona – Dick Yeats production has slipped, but he still has value.

Austin – Was able to re-sign their great WW pickup in Robin Sullivan, one of the better pitchers in the league.

Chicago – resigned his own in uber-RP Bob Appier, Santayana, and Ralph Kidd. Then they picked up a very good RP in Daniel Malone.

Cincinnati – Got one of the big bats available in Ben Musial, add him to Benj Clark and Eli Oliva makes a nice lineup. Victor Williams will be their new starting SS and Bruce Benes will be a nice addition as a SP/LRA. Then after trading away CLA/SuA Emil Renteria him in S5, they came back and resigned him.

Cleveland – Signed two reclamation projects. Both SPs Randy Pember and Al Sanchez have good ratings, but just haven’t performed like their ratings seem to indicate. If either turn out to have a good season Cleveland will be happy.

Colorado – Signed defensive minded SS, and a couple of RPs. Darrell Castillo will compete for a spot in the rotation.

Dover – Switch hitter John Bong has a history of swinging a good bat. Baily Crawford is a SS with a decent glove and his bat won’t embarrass his team.

Florida – Signed a high OBP in Louis Henderson. Yannick Gilbert is a gold glove CF that has a decent bat.

Hartford – Got All-Star Al Pena at bargain basement price, he is a difference maker that could put them back in the ALCS. Charlie Gwynn has also been resigned at great price, but he is no longer a SP due to injury.

Houston – Carlos Martin will be a fine addition to this team. He won’t be able to play 2B much longer, but his bat is good enough to be an option in the OF.

Indianapolis – Archie Saunders has always hit 32+ HRs and 100+ RBI, they will need all of that in their division.

Las Vegas – Hugh Moore is a huge pickup, he has averaged 58 HRs and 157 RBIs ever season. Otis Martin is a good switch hitting 1B that has had good seasons, but just hasn’t been given many ABs the last few seasons. Willie Roque and Doc May won’t be in the Cy Young mix, but could be very solid back of the rotation guys.

Milwaukee – signed a solid RP in Harold Sweeney and got a good defensive backstop.

Minnesota – Gerald Thomas is another SP with great ratings, but the last few seasons he has really been lit up by the opposition. What he does give them is a guy that has the stamina to rest the bullpen and that can pay dividends when he’s not pitching. A couple of middle relief guys should also help their bullpen.

New Britain – Resigned Jim Stewart who is a great slugger, Terry Cummings and Pete Buddie might regain some of their magic from past seasons. Tom Pember is a good young signing. Abraham Brown might be a decent RP, but he’s never pitched at the ML level.

NY – Signed 36 year old Wilfredo Iglesias, he was cheap which is good but he got absolutely rocked last season. He’s had a few decent seasons in the past, and his ratings really are decent. He’s a decent gamble for a low price.

Sacramento – Got a hot or cold pitcher in Dwight Marshall, he can be great and at $1.4 he’s a good buy and a contract the owner won’t mind eating if he pitches like s6 again. Junior Simmons is a top notch defensive SS, and Matt Charles can fill the role of long RP or spot starter if needed.

Salem – Only signed one guy, but Brian Scott is a very solid performer at the COF spots. He’s not the kind of guy that can carry a team by himself, but he certainly adds a very solid and consistent bat.

ScottsdaleDon Lane, Kirk Jenkins, and Andre Starr have four all-star appearances and two silver slugger awards but all are aging guys. Mostly they are going to play backup roles, but should give Scottsdale a deep bench and an extra RP.


Teams that did the Best in Free Agency

Cincinnati and AnaheimAnaheim probably added the most talent, but in two years most the guys they signed are going to be retired or just backups. Cincinnati grabbed one of the premier players available, a starting SS, and some relief help.

Next Best Teams in Free Agency

Las Vegas and HartfordHartford makes this list on one signing, a HOF player (Al Pena) for pennies. Las Vegas signed one of the top 5 players available and plus added a number of mid range players that should start.

Honorable Mention

Sacramento, Florida, Chicago, Salem

Money Burning a hole in their pocket

A tie between New Britain and Wichita. New Britain made some decent signings, but spent a lot of money and a few of the guys have little to no history of success. Wichita had a number of odd signings followed by immediately releasing the guy.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

NY Wins the World Series


After going up 3-0, NY heart was racing a bit when Atlanta got the series to 3-2. But in the sixth game they came out and pounded Atlanta to win their first World Series.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

NL Playoff Report - S6

St. Louis won its second straight NL North title, but this season it secured that title much sooner than last. This is still a team defined by the league’s best pitching staff by a significant margin. For much of the season they ran a modified four man rotation, and highest ERA of that four was 3.86. Any four of the SPs Coleman, Gutierrez, Nakajima, or Sierra can go up against the other team’s ace. Matthew Bravo has to one of the best FA pickups this season, he gives the lineup some much needed punch that it was missing last season. This is a team nobody would be surprised to see in the world series.

Hartford took the division crown for the fourth straight season. Hartford statistically has an average pitching staff, but that is quite an accomplishment for the park they play. Their SPs solid and the duo Perez and Terrero won’t embarrass themselves on the mound. This team has to have concerns about its closer Marshall though. His 7.32 ERA could be excused somewhat by their home ball park, but he has a 6.89 road ERA. Up against playoffs teams now you wonder if he will end up costing them a crucial game. Hartford really hopes their offense is powerful enough that closers never come into the picture. Everything this team does revolve around Carlos Johnson, who will certainly have his name all over the record books in Morgan world by the time he retires. He hit .337/66/165 this season, but he’s got help in this lineup. Willie Hawkins had a down year compared to his last couple of seasons, but still has quite a punch. Bob May and Robert Black compliment this lineup well also.

Kansas City is managed by first year owner cheese1981, but he has been able to guide this team to another wild card berth. Obviously he is skilled since I have no idea how he took rookie Rickey McCartney and turned him into a 17-7 3.38 pitcher. They will turn to vets Pete Buddie and Vic Green to through out on the mound the other days. Both have a history of success, but age is starting to creep up on them. They also have a rookie closer that has had an up and down first season. Their offense is where this teams shines, Enrique Ruiz is an elite player, switch hitter that hit .298/49/147 this season. Harry Chavez had almost identical numbers to Ruiz, and the vet Jim Stewart is a true slugger. The player that other teams worry about most is Al Pena, he hits for power, excellent obp, and can steal bases. This is the kind of player that can single handedly win games. Their pitching seems to indicate a trip to the world series would be improbable, teams would regret overlooking a team with this much offensive firepower.

Atlanta has been a true model of consistency in this league. In the last four seasons they have won 105, 107, 106, and 107 games. They win with pitching, speed, defense, and slugging. So your best bet to beat them is to sabotage the team bus. Banjo Melhuse finally took the role of legit Ace going 19-4 w/2.80. Ivan Sojo is out for the season, but they still have 3 quality SPs behind Banjo and a four man rotation is the playoffs is fine. The FA pickup of former Chicago RP Andre Star has really paid off for them and given them a great 8th inning option until Sosa can come in to close out the game. Atlanta isn’t packed with power but catcher Phillip Ford, a former first round draft pick, can knock one out anytime. This team really is based on the Oakland model of a lineup full of high OBP guys, but they add their own touch with some speedsters in Bey Buckley and Andre Hamill. The past 3 seasons they have made it to the LCS, and nothing about this team makes you thing they won’t do it again. To show how consistent this team was I was only able to find 1 team that won the 10 game series against them this season and that was Boston who missed the playoffs, although Harford and St. Louis were both 5-5.

Anaheim was one of the most active teams in signing FAs this spring, and not just spending but spending on quality players. The fruits of that were getting the 2nd seed and the all important first round bye. Eric Franklin and Del Martinez make a nice 1-2 punch in the rotation, but its really the bullpen that excels for this team. 5 of their RPs had sub 4.00 ERAs. This team has a couple of lefty power hitters in Izzy Devereaux (who also had 28 SBs)and Dan Turner. Albert Guzman is a well rounded player that can hit for power and speed. This is a well managed team and while some of the guys are older, I expect to see them as a fixture in the playoffs.

Arizona, you had to wonder last season if the end of an era for this team was coming after they had their worst season ever. Some of their guys were starting to age and they seemed less explosive. This season they showed the rumors of their demise were exaggerated. Connelly had what had to be another MVP season, he had a 1.243 OPS which is just unbelievable. Still you can’t just pitch around him and 4 other guys had 100+ RBIs. Unfortunately for this team they will without their leadoff hitter and gold glove CF Happy McNamara due to injury for the rest of the season. What they do lack though is an ace that can shut down another team. No SP has an ERA below 4.85. What they do have though is an underated closer, Hackman was 31/35 in saves with a 3.89 ERA. We know this offense will score, but how far they go will be determined if some of their SPs can step up.

Monday, November 12, 2007

AL Playoff Report -S6

Chicago makes it into the playoffs after battling Minnesota (who is going to miss the playoffs for the first time ever this season) all season long. This Chicago team is not as dominant as their consecutive 100+ win teams were a few seasons ago, but they can win it all. Vance Damon provides them with a huge bat, averaging 60 HRs 143 RBI since he came into the league; he was around that again this season. Surprisingly this guy has never had a single award at the ML level. George Spence will miss hitting 50HRs and 130RBI for the first time in his career due to a long injury, but he’s back now and will make a splash in the playoffs. Now that age is starting to sap former Cy Young winner Ted Rivera stamina and durability the responsibility of being an ace falls on Rocky Duvall and Torey Cunningham. While Cunningham stepped up and had a career year, cutting a full run off his previous best ERA, Rocky had serious decline after his promising rookie season. The wildcard player for this team could be Hector Machado, if he is even allowed to pitch. Machado has some of the best stuff in Morgan world, but he has a 44 control rating. He can pitch a CG Shutout or get shelled and booted in the 2nd inning. Chicago’s offense is championship caliber, but their SP can be either great or very average. Luckily for them they have some sure bullpen guys like Appier and Rivera that can hold the fort in case a SP has a bad night.

NY has an inspiring offense. It starts with a chillingly fast appetizer of leadoff hitter Estaban Montenez who hit righties just as well as lefties, had a .401 OBP, and stole 53 bases. Then the Elmer Crawford salad, who is a perfect #2 hitter that is well rounded and sets up the big guys. Then you get main course of Tarasco, Cordero, and Jefferies. They have immense power, speed, and OBP. Following them is some very capable side dishes and you can see this is a skillfully constructed and thought-out lineup. If there is any flaw it is that it is extremely RH heavy group of hitters, and it shows when you compare team OPS - .922 vL and .821 vR. NY has a good group of SPs, Clay Lincoln is the most talented of the group. Affeldt leads the world with 23 wins this season, but his 4.95 ERA suggests that he is an innings eater that gets fed from NY’s great offense. With that gaudy offense NY certainly has a chance to win it all, but at some point they will need a SP to step up. What’s interesting about their team also is that while they put up incredible offensive numbers, they were the second best fielding team in the league. Most teams have to sacrifice production to get that kind of fielding.

Washington – Havel would probably get my award for manager of year in the AL (in a tight race between him, Arte, and Exquezeme) What looked like an Atlanta Braves dynasty in the making a few seasons back blew up when a number of their frontline SPs declined due to age or injury. Washington rebuilt and has excelled doing it. They had the 5th best team ERA in the league this season, but not the hammer you were used to seeing them with. They have a superior bullpen that has both stamina and durability. They can cover for SPs that have a bad night early, and hang onto to slim leads late in the game. This really is a team that the sum is better than the parts. Statistically their offense is average and depending on the results of the last two games that might not have a 100 RBI guy. They do have a solid leadoff hitter, and after that 7 guys that his 75+ RBIs. So there are no real easy outs. Plus DC is the best fielding team in the league this year, so you won’t get many freebies from them.

Santa Fe might have won their division is a tight right over Memphis, but they truly are a wild card team. When playing in a +4 +4 stadium anything can happen and you can’t get good reads on how to scout player. SP Juan Pascal for instance has an unimpressive 4.72 ERA, but his road (in 14 starts) ERA is a stellar 2.21. They have some talented pitchers on the staff, but you just don’t know how they will do in that park and the same goes for visiting pitchers. What you do know is that Derrick Flynn and Alan O’Malley with get some licks in on even the best of pitchers. Keep the ball down, and avoid the walks and your pitchers might forgive you for making them pitch in Santa Fe.

Scottsdale will prove a difficult matchup for most any team. They are known for their explosive offense (NY and SCO traded 1st/2nd position in offense rankings all season long) but their pitching was ranked 2nd best this season. Their leadoff hitter is switch hitting rookie Felipe Rodriguez who is 2 SBs away from a 40/40 season. 2 Time MVP Rusty Jones had a dip in production, but still managed .352/47/145 and another year of 1.000+ OPS. Rookie Harry Roque finally added a power hitting left handed bat to the lineup as he, CF Tim Durbin, RF Alex Shibata, and DH Eric Thomas all hit 50+ HRs. Their bench is weak, filled mostly with defensive replacements and has-beens. The four man pitching staff they will use is Jerome Turner, Earl Wilkerson, Jaret Charles, and Virgil Quinn. 3 of them are up for Cy Young award and those same three each had sub 4.00 ERA. Middle relief for this team is just average, but rookie Ed Hitchcock who was rocked when first called up straightened himself out and has proved their most reliable setup man. Will Monroe has also had his best season as a closer, going 39/43 in saves and having a 2.72 ERA. The chink in their armor is fielding. Unlike NY which gets great offense with great fielding Scottsdale is one of the poorer fielding teams, the only position they excel defensively is SS and C.

Salem has built their team on the classic foundation of pitching and defense. They also have a good mix of vets and youth that shows they might not be going away soon. They will throw reigning Cy Young winner Jose Lee on the mound who had another good season. Accompanying him will be vets JC Russell (who had a tough season compared to his history) and Orel Payton. Then the two accomplished former first round draft picks in their rookie season Max Barrios and Bob Thompson. Barrios arguably was their best performing pitcher at 13-4 3.61 ERA, but after Lee they will have some tough decisions to make about which SPs will take the mound. Their closer has locked up the fireman of the year award for a while now. As far as their offense goes Salem has the weakest run total of any playoff team. They really only have one slugger and can’t compete in a slugfest. So they rely on their great pitching and one of the best defenses (including gold glove SS Toombs) to try and win those 3-2 ballgames.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

First Half Review and Award

Around the half way point in the season now. The bad news is 6 of 8 division races seem to be decided. The good news is that AL North race and AL South race are very tight. The NL wildcard race could be a bloodbath. Seven teams (Toronto, Cincy, KC, Wichita, Boston, Houston, and Arizona) are within 3 games of each other for the two wild card berths. Trade deadline deals could have a big impact on this race. In the NL DC and LA are in control of the wildcard race now, and at this point the only threats to their playoff hops are Sacramento, Salem, and the loser of the Memphis/Santa Fe division race.

First Half AL MVP

Derrick Flynn (SFE) gets the slight edge of Tony Tarasco (NY) and Harry Roque (SCO) because of his great play in the field.

First Half NL MVP

Carlos Johnson (HAR) is the pretty clear winner so far for MVP over Doug Connelly (ARI) and Tim Smith (HOU)

First Half AL Cy Young

This was a tight race, but Ramon Ramirez (MEM) gets the nod over Jerome Turner (SCO). I would also expect to see Vin Burks (NY) and Earl Wilkerson (SCO) there at the end.

First Half NL Cy Young

Banjo Melhouse (ATL) has been dominating and looks to be the clear winner, but Vitas Sobkowiak (CIN) leads the entire league in IP, SO, and WHIP, and is 4th in ERA, I call this a tie so far. Al Gutierrez (StL) Joel Coleman (StL) and Richard Kim (TOR) also expect to be in consideration for the award at the end of the season.

RP Awards and Rookie Awards

I don’t do these, RPs are too unpredictable and there is no easy way to find Rookies.

Out of Nowhere Award – Player

Dan Turner (LAA) - 3rd in RBI, top 10 in HRs. At 29 years old and in his second season in the majors he is adding some punch to the LAA Lineup. Honorable mention is SP Richard Kim (TOR)

Out of Nowhere Award – Team

Los Angeles Penetrators – A first year coach taking over a team that had finished last 4 years in a row and leading the wild card race. Nobody expected this.

Sunday, October 7, 2007

Draft review

Most of the teams I was able to write about, but some teams players haven't signed yet and I didn't see the same players they scouted.


Anaheim – Drafted 2 pitchers and 3 DH/1B/C types in the first 5 rounds. Apollo Xavier, whose name sounds like his job should include wearing a mask and yellow tights, has a super hero like bat. Thurman looks like a steal in the second round and should project to be solid #3 SP. DH/C Kiko and Conway both have great ML bats, but questionable defense.

Arizona – A few of his guys might be signing risks, but a speedy OF Sam Sisk and a power hitting Rollie Nixon 3B highlight this draft class.

Atlanta – Another fine job with position they picked in the draft. Gonzalez looks like a good LRA type pitcher, they got a speedy 2B. Corey Christenson looks like a sure thing big leaguer, a very nice player with pick #82.

Austin – Picked up 3 pitchers, a SS and 2B. 1st and 2nd round picks Schneider and Cruz both look like major league material, but both could also be signing risks so we’ll see if they both make it on the roster.

Boston – Focused on pitching for the draft. 4 of the first 5 rounds were spent on pitchers. Wish I knew more, but only scouted his 5th round pick.

Chicago – Another team I didn’t see many of the players he scouted/drafted. Position players were drafted with the first three picks, it does look like he has some signing risks in the group, particularly pick #42 Allie Whiten a decent player but demanding $8M.

Cincinnati – Grabbed a long armed SP that has 3 great pitches. C/DH Whitehead has a good bat, and RP Prince looks to make the bigs as a SuA.

Cleveland – Got one of the best SPs in the draft in Pichardo. Boehringer and Mitchell could be back of the rotation type SPs, which is pretty good for 2nd and 4th round picks. Hollins looks like a catcher that is both a quality backstop and has a good bat.

Dover – Picked up a premiere impact player with pick ten Cf Valdvia. Doyle Nathan looks like a solid prospect and JT Webster could be a back of rotation SP.

Florida – Focused on pitching in the with their first 4 picks of the draft. Looks to be building a solid core group with SPs Hale, Haney, and Sele.

Hartford – Some good value picks in round 2 and 3 with some solid position players.

Honolulu – Calvo looks like a sure thing future All-Star 2B, Great splits, and BE to go with good power and nice glove. Position players were the staple of Honolulu’s draft and a number should make the big leagues.

Houston – Brian Jung looks like a very nice RP, and they certainly had a strategy with the draft. All pitching all the time. 24 of 26 draft picks were pitchers.

Indianapolis – Looks like it Potvin signs he could be an All-Star. Speed, power, and a superior batting eye make him a wonderful pickup, particularly at #15. Their next 6 picks were also position players and it looks to be a good crop.

KC – Theo Buckley with pick 27 might be the steal of the draft. He’s a great defensive SS with some pop in his bat.

Las Vegas – David Larson in my opinion was the premiere SP in the draft. The next 5 picks were also pitchers and it should be a decent group of prospects. Even the 5th round OF has good ratings and should make the majors.

LA – Carlos Ibarra should be an anchor to this rotation for years to come. They grabbed some nice defensive CF/2B, but a couple of their guys look to have signage issues.

Memphis – 5 of first 6 picks were pitchers. Incomplete.

Milwaukee – Holliday is a sure thing ML talent. Great range and glove to go with an impressive bat, comparisons could be made to Atlanta’s Andrew Jones. Olivares looks to be a solid setup man, Guzman a good DH, and OF Forrest has tremendous power. Hopefully the praises of Holliday will lead the Gurus to want to trade him to the Mad Jesters ala OF Johnson of season 5.

Minnesota – Pitching Pitching Pitching, their first seven picks all were pitchers. Harang and Bo Moore seem the most promising.

Monterrey – Kojima was one of the premiere SS that was available. Followed up with 2B Ronald Jones this is going to be a potent MIF duo in the near future. 3rd round pick Bob McElroy seems to be on of those invaluable setup men with a rubber arm and good L/R splits. CF Monte Jenkins looks interesting, only projected rated 11 vL, but projects to 90s in both vR and BE means he could be a great platoon guy.

NY – Griffin and Winchester are solid ML talents, which is what you can expect when picking in the 29 range. As good as Winchester is, he is no Mark Ross. SP Kenny Williams actually could be a decent SP, he has a very nice #1 pitch.

Oklahoma City – The eighth pick was one of the most fascinating players in the draft. Usually IMHO a position player with 500+ ABs or a SP with 200IPs is worth a pick this high, but even an exceptional closer usually only gets 40-50 IP. I’m not sure if a player like Clayton has a real life comparison. His 49 STA and upper 70s DUR mean he could be a super RP that gets 70 games and 130 IPs, his L/R splits are great and he has two fabulous pitches. I’ll be interested in how his career turns out.

Sacramento – Russell Cook in my opinion was the best pure hitter in the draft. His major flaw is his defense, he’s a DH/1B but he can mash. He compares to Scottsdale’s DH Eric Thomas. His next couple of picks look good, but might have some signing issues.

Salem – After years of really focusing on pitching in the draft Salem went the position route, and did well. CF Fernandez looks like a great glove with speed and nice bat and will certainly make the majors. Their next three picks Canon, Ford, and Knowles don’t look to be all-stars, but certainly should have solid major league careers.

Santa Fe – Grabbed an OF in the first round, and then focused on pitching. I wasn’t able to scout most of his players. Rumor is 1/3 of their prospect budget is going to their 25th round pick a 48 OVR rated 1B.

Scottsdale – Picked up a couple decent OF. The first 7 picks all have a chance to make the big leagues, but mostly only as role or bench players no impact players.

St. Louis – When you have four first round picks you hope you can give a major boost to your team, and they did very well. Carson Sellers was a great pickup at pick 19, then a great slugging 1B Al Stewart, a setup/closer in Sammy Borbon, and another power hitter in 3B Tony Lee. Flood, Lemon, and Tarasco picked in rounds 2-3 also look to be great hitters. There is some obvious overlap in positions, but they probably got 7-8 major league players in this draft.

Texas – 3B Moreno is a true impact player for this team, then picked a couple of decent SPs later in round one and four. Blauser looks to be a decent prospect, but SS Doug Moore might not sign.

Toronto – SS Wathan is a power hitting SS, but could be a signing issue. After that they got a couple of decent IF prospects.

Washington – First pick was in the 3rd round because of FA signings, and picked up a solid all round 3B in Alston. Then a decent RP in Cosby. Not bad for so few picks, but honestly they probably got better players in the FA they picked up than the prospects they lost.

Wichita – SP Griffin is a signability risk, but taking a gamble at pick 14 on a potential #2 SP is worth it. The second round C might not have a end up staying at catcher, but he certainly has an impressive bat. SS Howie Randolf is light on the bat, but has a good glove and its always crucial to have those type guys.

Top Drafts 10


St. Louis - Best Draft by far, but also had the most picks

Cleveland

Las Vegas

Dover

Anaheim

Indianapolis

OKC

Salem

KC

Sacramento

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Top 100 Players

Here's a list of the top100 players in the league. By team ATL has 7, Chicago 6, NY 7, SCO 8. Just listed Name, Team, Age, and the number.

Tim Smith HOU 32 101.19
Doug Connelly ARI 31 101.10
Jerome Turner SCO 31 101.05
Vitas Sobkowiak CIN 29 100.55
Rich Rothschild MIN 35 100.13
Jerome Patrick NY1 25 99.87
J.C. Russell SAL 32 99.44
Rusty Jones SCO 31 99.09
Steve Taylor HOU 23 98.96
Banjo Melhuse ATL 25 98.52
Ramon Ramirez MEM 29 98.40
Derrick Flynn SFE 27 98.39
Glenn Kubenka MEM 26 97.52
Rafael Cedeno SAC 25 96.81
Rafael Alicea IND 23 96.62
Carlos Johnson HAR 25 96.17
Jose Lee SAL 34 96.14
Mike Andrews SAC 30 96.08
Bob Appier CH2 35 95.80
Robin Sullivan WIC 33 95.36
Mark Ross WAS 29 94.63
Robert Black HAR 31 94.22
Al Gutierrez STL 29 94.11
Bonk Linton BOS 26 93.54
Pablo Johnson MNT 29 93.43
Eric Monroe MEM 32 93.43
Vladimir Goya CLE 26 93.07
Joel Coleman STL 35 92.85
Tony Chang ARI 29 92.66
Darrel Perez SCO 28 92.45
Homer Monroe MEM 27 92.28
Sam Rivera WIC 30 92.12
Rich Sanford MEM 31 92.02
Dick Yeats ARI 34 91.87
Lorenzo Fernandez TEX 30 91.66
Mark Lee HON 31 91.65
Alan O'Malley MIN 25 91.40
Raul Gonzalez LA 25 91.20
Vin Burks NY1 24 91.18
Clay Lincoln NY1 28 91.02
George Spence CH2 31 91.00
Pascual Melendez WAS 24 90.91
Brian Perez HAR 24 90.87
George Bell WIC 33 90.84
Benito Vazquez MNT 28 90.64
B.C. Sierra STL 36 89.78
Alex Green SCO 26 89.60
Al Pena KC 32 89.46
Wes Davies SAC 25 89.41
Ken Jefferies NY1 26 89.41
Walt Keeler MIN 28 89.31
Vic Saenz ATL 34 89.31
Dan West TOR 33 89.29
Mendy Aoki LAA 36 89.24
Lawrence Trammell BOS 24 89.22
Willie Liriano HOU 31 88.97
Enrique Ruiz KC 27 88.82
Kiki Lopez NY1 26 88.81
Tony Rivera ATL 27 88.72
Paul Ogawa MNT 22 88.68
Earl Wilkerson SCO 32 88.54
Hugh Moore MNT 33 88.54
Hector Romero CH2 33 88.34
Chili Olsen HOU 23 88.32
Emil Renteria SAC 31 88.20
Del Castro SAC 25 87.97
Donald Nakajima STL 33 87.58
Benji Marichal ATL 23 87.54
Ted Rivera CH2 33 87.46
Bey Buckley ATL 25 87.15
Brian Scott LAA 31 86.92
Stan Jackson CH2 28 86.91
Mendy Messmer STL 31 86.86
Virgil Quinn SCO 25 86.82
Glen Michaels WAS 29 86.76
Ricardo Santana ARI 26 86.71
Tim Durbin SCO 24 86.16
Julius Brush NY1 31 86.03
Felipe Rodriguez SCO 22 85.86
Eric Franklin LAA 37 85.75
Shawn Wilhelm AUS 32 85.42
Andres Terrero HAR 32 85.03
Gerald Thomas LA 36 85.00
Ted Stoops CLE 30 84.86
Stevie Morgan ATL 26 84.72
John Blank BOS 26 84.72
Alex Cordero NY1 24 84.52
Carlos Javier TOR 32 84.25
Arlie Dillon CLE 27 84.11
Miller Andrews FLA 28 83.89
Javier Sosa ATL 30 83.77
Carl Cochrane MIN 25 83.50
Toby Perkins SAC 27 83.44
Rocky Duvall CH2 22 83.27
Jon Zentmeyer LAA 28 83.18
Tim Lincoln AUS 29 83.13
Ben Musial TEX 31 83.08
Gill Kwon CIN 29 83.02
Albert Guzman LAA 32 83.01