Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Another Season, Another Hall of Fame Voting Guide

It's almost time for another season, and while the free agent pickings look pretty sparse there are a number of Hall of Fame candidates who warrant attention.

This season I took a hard look at my formulas and decided that two things needed tweaking.  First, the unreliability of award distribution (e.g. John Chen's relatively small number of All-Star selections) led me to devalue awards somewhat.  I still think awards are an somewhat useful indicator of performance relative to other players of their era, but I'm placing more weight on statistical measures.

The second change was intended to help better gauge the performance of more recent retirees.  In the case of rate stats (BA, OBP, SLG, ERA), I set playing time limits (1500 games for hitters, 1500 IP for the pitchers) that would clear out the noise created by guys who put up great rates in relatively few AB during the era of inflated hitting numbers.  In my opinion, it gives a truer measure of value for the guys who played lengthy careers.

Rather than give a full assessment of each player right now, I'll give you a quick rundown of the results of my analysis (note that points for position players and pitchers aren't quite equivalent):

Position players:
1) Russell Cook, DH (5190 points)
2) Dennis Perez, 3B (3604)
3) Happy Moore, 1B (3312)
4) Gerald Bradley, C (3190)
5) Esteban Montanez, LF (3084)
6) Rafael Alicea, SS/3B (2888)
7) Horace Polcovich, 1B (2868)
8) Steve Taylor, SS (2853)
9) Juan Moreno, RF (2508)
10) Stone Rivera, 2B (2219)

Pitchers:
1) Leo Mackowiak (4740 points)
2) Danys Guzman (3033)
3) Louie Alvarado (2592)
4) Rocky Duvall (2418)
5) David Larson (2184)
6) Virgil Quinn (2072)
7) Del Martinez (2013)
8) Ramon Ramirez (1989)
9) R. J. Bautista (1926)
10) Pedro Acosta (1903)

Shockingly, we'll have a pitcher on the ballot this year who should be assured of election.  Mackowiak's health and stamina were a bit of a hindrance, especially as he got older, but few were better at getting guys out.

I like those top 4 position players.  Cook was a hitting machine.  Even without a defensive position, I can't see how you keep him out.  Perez was the best third basemen of his era, and Gerald Bradley was an on-base machine fully deserving of being the first catcher inducted.  I've admitted my bias for Happy Moore before (you can go back to previous Hall columns), but his .998 OPS is the highest of any player with 1500+ games played who isn't already inducted.

So there are my votes:  Mackowiak, Cook, Perez, Bradley, and Happy Moore.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Final Power Rankings

AL Final Power Rankings:
Previous Rankings ( ) Preseason Ranking-Pre Last Year Ranking-LY  Wins +/- from Last Year

1. Norfolk 110-52 (1) Pre-3 LY-3 Wins- +12
1st in East (9th Division Title)
1st Seed (6th straight playoff appearance)
2nd Half: 58-25
1st Half: 52-27

2. Vancouver 99-63 (3) Pre-1 LY-1 Wins: -4
1st in West (22nd Div Title)
2nd Seed (25th straight playoff apps)
2nd half:50-33
1st half:49-30

3. Richmond 98-64 (4) Pre-7 LY-6 Wins: +13
1st in south (10th Div Title)
3rd Seed (10th playoff apps)
2nd half; 56-26
1st half: 42-38

4. Milwaukee 97-65 (5) Pre-2 LY-2 Wins: -9
1st in North (8th Div Title)
4th Seed (7th straight  playoff apps)
2nd Half: 48-32
!st half: 49-33

5.  Bosie 94-68 (2) Pre-4 LY-4 Wins: -6
2nd inWest
5th Seed (3rd straight playoff apps)
2nd half: 51-31
1st half: 43-37

6. Colubmus 87-75 (8) PRe-5 LY-7 Wins: -1
2nd in North
6th Seed (8th straight playoff apps)
2nd Half:39-43
1st half: 48-32

7. Charlotte 85-77 (6) Pre-6 LY-5 Wins: -
2nd in South
2nd half: 40-43
1st half: 45-34

8. Syracuse 86-76 (7) Pre-8 LY-11 Wins: +8
3rd in North
2nd half: 43-40
1st half: 43-36

9. Fresno 78-84 (12) Pre-12 LY-13 Wins: +13
3rd in West
2nd half: 45-38
1st half: 33-46

10. Louisville 76-86 (10) Pre-9 LY-14 Wins: +4
2nd in East
2nd half: 40-43
1st half: 36-43

11. Monterrey 75-87 (9) Pre-10 LY-16 Wins: +10
3rd in South
2nd half: 36-47
1st half:39-40

12. Little Rock 75-87 (11) Pre-16 LY-12 Wins: +16
3rd in South
2nd half: 34-48
1st half: 41-39

13. Dover 73-89 (14) Pre-11 LY-9 Wins: -4
4th in North
2ns half: 39-43
1st half: 34-46

14. Phildelphia 65-97 (13) Pre-13 LY-15 Wins: -7
3rd in East
2nd half: 34-51
1st half: 31-46

15. San Franisco 63-99 (15) Pre-14 LY-8 Wins: -15
4th in West
2nd half: 21-61
1st half: 42-38

16. Augusta 45-117 (16) Pre-15 LY-10 Wins: -27
4th in East
2nd half: 24-58
1st half: 21-59

NL Power Rankings:

1. Toronto 96-66 (1) Pre-3 LY-4 Wins: -4
1st in North (6th Div Title)
2nd Seed (4th straight playoff apps)
2nd half: 44-39
1st half: 52-27

2. Salt Lake City 99-63 (2) Pre-4 LY-7 Wins: +23
1st in West (1st Div Title)
1st Seed (2nd playoff apps)
2nd half: 53-29
1st half: 46-34

3. Austin 94-68 (5) Pre-11 LY-10 Wins: +22
1st in South (4th Div Title)
3rd Seed (8th playoff apps)
2nd half: 52-30
1st half: 42-38

4. Colorado Springs 93-69 (3) Pre-13 LY-9 Wins: +21
2nd in West
5th Seed (5th playoff apps)
2nd half: 46-37
1st half: 47-32

5. Scottsdale 90-72 (4) Pre-5 LY-5 Wins: +3
3rd in West
2nd half: 43-40
1st half: 47-32

6. Tampa 91-71 (6) Pre-6 LY-2 Wins: -14
2nd in South
6th Seed (5th straight playoff apps)
2nd half: 46-34
1st half: 45-37

7. Pawtucket 93-69 (7) Pre-8 LY-8 Wins: +15
1st in East (4th Div Title)
4th Seed (7th playoff apps)
2nd half: 50-33
1st half: 43-36

8. Arizona 79-83 (8) Pre-6 LY-1 Wins: -30
4th in West
2nd half: 37-45
1st half: 42-38

9. Kansas City 85-77 (9) Pre-7 LY-6 Wins: -
2nd in East
2nd half: 50-33
1st half; 35-44

10. Burlington 79-83 (10) Pre-15 LY-16 Wins: +15
2nd in North
2nd half: 40-42
1st half: 39-41

11. Chicago 77-85 (12) Pre-1 LY-3 Wins: -30
3rd in North
2nd half: 40-42
1st half: 37-43

12. Trenton 74-88 (11) PRe-14 LY-11 Wins: +3
4th in North
2nd half: 38-44
1st half: 36-44

13. Cincinnati 59-103 (15) Pre-10 LY-12 Wins; -24
3rd in East
2nd half: 32-51
1st half: 27-52

14. Texas 57-105 (13) Pre-16 LY-14 Wins; -
4th in South
2nd half: 35-45
1st half: 22-60

15. Hartford 58-104 (14) Pre-9 LY-13 Wins: -5
4th in East
2nd half: 26-56
1st half: 32-48

16. Jackson 62-100 (16) Pre-12 LY-15 Wins: +8
3rd in South
2nd half: 35-48
1st half: 27-52