Wednesday, December 31, 2008

AL North

Dover Gophers
Edwin McGowan SP AA 22 A
Brett Bell SP AA 20 A
Jason McCartin 1B AAA 22 B+
Kris Harper RF LoA 21 B
Bill Blauser LF AAA 26 B-

Milwaukee Gurus
David Cooper SS AA 20 A
Everett Sanders 2B AAA 21 A-
Clayton Serrano SP AAA 23 B-
Jeremy Bird 3B AAA 21 B-
Will Richardson RF HiA 21 C+


Minnesota St. Paul Sots
Walter Reith SP AAA 21 B+
Justin Shields 3B HiA 24 B
Felix Kimura RF AA 24 C+
Roger Dillon CF HiA 21 C+
Darwin Reitz 2B AAA 23 C+

Sioux Falls Badlands
Paul Maduro 3B AA 20 B
Midre Calvo 3B AAA 21 B
Pat Richard CF AA 24 B-
Kevin Carter SS AAA 23 C
Hal Throneberry 2B AA 23 C-

Monday, December 29, 2008

NL South

Atlanta Braves
Matthew Carter LF AA 21 A
Ramiro Suarez 2B AA 21 B+
Kane Howard RP AAA 25 B
Hersh Hodges 3B LoA 19 B-
Adrian Parris C HiA 23 B-

Austin Wranglers
Cal Robertson RP LoA 23 A-
Vinny Hukata SP AAA 22 B
Antonio Kelly 2B AAA 24 B-
Yamid Roque SS AA 20 C
Jeffrey Eaton CF AA 24 C

Louisville Wild Turkeys
Vincenzo Osborne C AAA 21 B+
Jimmie Samuel 3B AAA 21 B+
Emmanuel Crespo COF AAA 24 B
Rickey Bagley RP AAA 23 C+
Bart Carter RP AAA 24 C+

Richmond Hicks
Todd Russell SP AAA 21 A
Albert Sellers SS AAA 22 A
Hideki Dong CF AAA 26 B-
Sammy Rodriguez RF AAA 26 C+
Glenn O'Toole RP HiA 20 C+

Saturday, December 27, 2008

AL East

Charlotte Cutters
Andrea Eiland SP HiA 19 A
Harold Diaz 3B HiA 23 A-
Christopher Brewington RF AA 20 A-
Dale Presley SP AA 22 B
Everett Winston RP AA 23 B-

Florida Pheonix
Jesse Richardson SP AAA 23 A+
Livan Mangual SP AA 21 A-
Orber Pulido SP LoA 19 A-
Ray Anderson CF AAA 22 B
Jerry Richardson DH LoA 19 B

New York Mugger Funk
Neil Meadows RP AA 20 A
Eric Anderson SS HiA 22 B
Harry Lugo LF AA 20 C+
Edwards Terry CF LoA 21 C+
Neal Rose SS AA 21 C+

Rochester Tigers
Guillermo Park CF AA 20 C+
Dan Brocail RP 23 AA C
Kris Cobb SP 23 AAA C
Wayne Enders SP 22 AA C
Orlando Romero 2B HiA 20 C

Friday, December 26, 2008

NL West

This prospect report, unfortunately, is going to be brief. One division at a time I will list each team's top five prospects (in my opinion), with A grades for sure thing all stars, B grades for above average guys with a shot at one all star appearence, and a C grade for guys who could be average major leaguers. At the end I will then put together a top 30 list for the whole League. Also, I wont pretend any clarvoyance, or even great concistancy across teams, but hopefully this is something good to look at. And if you trade an all-star, be sure to aim for guys on these lists!

Anaheim Redbirds
Al Valdez 2B/CF AA 21 A
Quentin Rigs 1B HiA 20 A
Javy Bolivar RF AAA 23 B+
Miguel Rijo LF AA 21 B
Brian Winn SP LoA 19 B-

San Diego Devil Dogs
Hooks Jackson SP AAA 21 B+
Fernando Perez 3B AA 20 B
Darren Prior RF AAA 22 B-
Moose Park RF AA 20 C
Kenny Hill CF AA 24 C-

St. Louis Showboats
Clarence Schneider RF AAA 23 B
Rollie Nixon 3B AAA 23 B-
David Mendoza RF AA 21 C
Fred Riley SS AA 23 C
Wesley Piper SP HiA 21 C

Tacoma Express
Stevie Park SS HiA 20 A
Andrew Davis CF AA 23 B
Patrick Champion SP AAA 21 B-
Louis Casillo RP 22 AA C+
Alex Ayala SS 21 AA C

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Talent-Based Playoffs

NL Playoffs
1. Atlanta
2. Cleveland
3. Anaheim
4. Boston
5. Toronto
6. Hartford

AL Playoffs
1. Vancouver
2. Milwaukee
3. Texas
4. New York
5. Scottsdale
6. Sioux Falls

This is based on the assumption that the wildcard teams are seeded 5 and 6. (Scottsdale is actually ranked as the second best team in the AL).

Brian's Divisional Talent Rankings

AL North
1. Milwaukee
2. Sioux Falls
3. Dover
4. Minnesota

AL East
1. New York
2. Charlotte
3. Florida
4. Rochester

AL West
1. Vancouver
2. Scottsdale
3. Helena
4. Salem

AL South
1. Texas
2. Nashville
3. Durham
4. Memphis

NL North
1. Cleveland
2. Toronto
3. Boise
4. Augusta

NL East
1. Boston
2. Hartford
3. Chicago
4. Cincinnati

NL West
1. Anaheim
2. San Diego
3. Tacoma
4. St. Louis

NL South
1. Atlanta
2. Louisville
3. Richmond
4. Austion

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Brian's Talent Rankings

These are rankings I've calculated using the 4 major breakdowns in the Franchise Rankings screen. These are purely based on numbers and calculated by weighting the categories that I feel are important for a team on a percentage basis. (PS - if your team isn't listed in a particular category, let me know via trade chat or whatever and I'll let you know.)

Starters
  1. Vancouver
  2. Boston
  3. Texas
  4. Scottsdale
  5. Florida

Bench
  1. Atlanta
  2. Milwaukee
  3. Toronto
  4. Nashville
  5. Helena

Rotation
  1. Vancouver
  2. New York
  3. Milwaukee
  4. Boston
  5. Atlanta

Bullpen
  1. Atlanta
  2. Cleveland
  3. Milwaukee
  4. Anaheim
  5. Vancouver

Top 5 Talent-Wise

  1. Atlanta
  2. Vancouver
  3. Scottsdale
  4. Milwaukee
  5. Cleveland

Coming tomorrow...division by division breakdown.

Monday, December 8, 2008

World Series Stats

  • The AL is leading, 6-4.
  • Vancouver (Scottsdale) became the first 3-time World Series champion.
  • Vancouver ranked 1st in pitching, 3rd in runs scored, and 17th in fielding percentage.
  • Atlanta made its world-leading 5th appearance.
  • This was just the second World Series to go 7 games in the world's history.
  • Vancouver was the worst-ranked fielding team to win the World Series.
  • AL leads 31-23 (in games).

Friday, December 5, 2008

Top Free Agent Pitchers

Relief Pitchers
1. Emil Renteria (L) - AUG
2. Will Pickford (L) - SD
3. Milt Young (L) - TEX
4. Andres Arroyo (R) - AUS
5. Steve Childers (R) - ROC
6. Dwight Marshall (R) - LAA
7. Eric Ramirez (L) - Free Agent
8. Louis Widger (L) - NAS
9. Miguel Molina (L) - ROC
10. Turk Chouinard (R) - FLA

Starting Pitchers
1. Mike Andrews (R) - MIL
2. Jesus James (R) - MIN
3. Virgil Quinn (R) - RIC
4. Arlie Dillon (R) - CLE
5. Curtis Greenwood (R) - AUS
6. Ed Wallace (L) - TEX
7. Jose Cordero (R) - ATL
8. Ralph Taylor (R) - LAA
9. Ivan Ulrich (R) - CIN
10. Gill Kwon (R) - TEX

Swingmen/Other
1. Jermaine Brumfield (R) - CLE
2. Alvin Mills (R) - Free Agent
3. Ted Rivera (R) - VC
4. P.T. McNamara (R) - VC
5. Daniel Malone (R) - DUR

Top Free Agents - By Position

Catcher
1. Yogi Lieberthal (R) - VC
2. Bob May (L) - HAR
3. John Bong (S) - HAR

First Base
1. Blade Rothschild (L) - CIN
2. Jon Zentmeyer (R) - SD
3. Al Cabrera (S) - HEL

Second Base
1. Stewart Stieb (R) - SXF
2. Buddy Munoz (R) - LAA
3. Fernando Diaz (R) - LOU

Shortstops
1. Tanner Dransfeldt (R) - LAA
2. Nolan West (L) - TEX
3. Harry Franco (R) - ROC

Third Base
1. Mark Ross (R) - DOV
2. Sam Rivera (R) - AUG
3. Mendy Messmer (R) - CH1

Right Field
1. Bonk Linton (R) - MIL
2. Tim Lincoln (L) - AUS
3. Heath DeRosa (R) - MEM

Center Field
1. Billy Ray Jensen (L) - AUS
2. Yannick Gilbert (R) - FLA
3. Bill Locko (L) - TEX

Left Field
1. Carl Cochrane (R) - MIN
2. Tony Rivera (S) - ATL
3. Pedro Fernandez (R) - LAA

Designated Hitter
1. Happy Presley (R) - SAL
2. Juan Castillo (R) - FLA
3. Steve Offerman (L) - ROC

TOP 5 OVERALL
1. Bonk Linton
2. Carl Cochrane
3. Tony Rivera
4. Happy Presley
5. Juan Castillo

Pitchers to come later today.

**DISCLAIMER**
All rankings were done using a formula developed by hurricane384. These are pure formulaic entries. The top 5 overall are done based purely on my hitting formula.

Monday, December 1, 2008

League Notes on the Almanac

S4 ROY has already retired (he was 28 when he won the award)

S6 ROY Rickey McCartney is widely considered the worst player to win a major award. While his season was deserving of an award he has never replicated that success.

s7 had our only shared MVP award.

Earl Wilkerson went the longest time between winning two award. Winning the Cy Young in S1 and s7.

S8 and S10 featured Rookie of the Year award winners that also won MVP. Dennis Perez and Clint Hutton.


Joel Coleman and Earl Wilkerson are the only two pitchers to have won an Cy Young in both leagues.

3 players have won two Cy young awards while Leo Mackowiak is the only player to win the Cy Young twice in a row.

ROY By position
pitcher 5
LF 2
1B 6
2b 1
SS 3
RF 1
cf 1
3B 1

Catcher is the only position never to have won ROY.

S10 Championship

The Vancouver Shrugging Atlases won the S10 Championship in a thrilling 7 games series against Atlanta. Vitas Sobkowiak was named World Series MVP winning 2 games with a 2.08 ERA in the world series.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Below is some of the raw data gathered on the number of ABs players got on HBD teams compared to real MLB players. This info is further discussed on HBD forums.


600+ ABs 500 400 300 200 100
VAN-morgan 3 2 2 3 1 4
ANA-morgan 1 6 0 2 0 4
ARI-morgan 1 3 3 0 6 0
ATL-morgan 0 6 1 4 0 2
FLA-morgan 2 4 2 1 3 3
NY-morgan 0 5 4 1 2 2
SCO-morgan 1 6 2 1 1 1
WAS-morgan 0 2 4 3 2 5
Ana-Moneyb 2 4 1 1 4 2
FLA-moneyb 1 2 2 4 2 3
Minn-moneyb 3 0 5 1 2 4
NY-moneyb 2 2 3 1 4 1
WAS-moneyb 0 6 1 1 0 3
TOR-moneyb 0 4 1 2 3 4
SF-moneyb 2 4 1 0 3 3
PHI-moneyb 1 4 2 1 2 4
ARI-MG 2 3 4 1 1 3
CIN-MG 0 1 4 2 5 4
KC-MG 2 5 1 0 1 4
MEM-MG 1 4 2 3 2 2
NOR-MG 1 4 3 0 2 0
SEA-MG 0 5 4 1 2 1
TB-MG 2 4 3 1 1 2
TRE-MG 0 7 0 2 2 3
ANA-glee 2 3 1 2 2 3
BOS-glee 2 5 2 0 0 5
FLA-glee 0 5 5 0 2 2
MIL-glee 2 1 3 3 4 2
Mon-glee 3 3 2 2 1 2
OKC-glee 0 1 3 5 3 4
SAJ-glee 0 5 1 1 4 4
TAC-glee 1 2 5 1 2 2
HBD 1.16 3.69 2.41 1.56 2.16 2.75







MLB





ATL 0 5 2 1 1 6
AZ 2 3 1 3 3 5
BAL 1 4 3 1 0 4
BOS 1 3 4 2 2 4
CHC 1 4 2 2 2 2
CHW 1 3 5 2 0 3
CIN 0 3 1 2 2 3
CLE 2 2 1 5 2 1
COL 1 1 2 3 6 2
DET 1 4 2 2 2 4
FLA 0 3 2 3 2 3
HOU 1 2 3 4 2 3
KC 0 4 2 4 4 0
LAA 0 4 2 2 4 3
LAD 1 5 1 2 2 4
MIL 1 3 3 1 3 1
MIN 1 3 2 3 2 3
NYM 3 1 0 3 3 4
NYY 1 5 2 2 3 3
OAK 0 2 5 2 2 4
PHI 2 3 2 3 4 0
PIT 0 3 1 1 4 6
SD 2 1 0 5 1 4
SEA 3 2 0 2 4 2
SF 0 3 2 1 3 4
STL 0 4 4 2 1 4
TB 1 2 4 3 2 3
TEX 2 1 3 2 4 5
TOR 1 2 2 4 3 2
WSH 0 2 1 3 3 9
MLB Totals 0.97 2.90 2.13 2.50 2.53 3.37

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

S10 Best Pure Hitters

I Ran a quick little analysis on the league. Everything is based on current ratings so this is not based on future predictions and scouting played no part in this.

It was a simple process, ranked every one of the 411 position players by each of their current offensive attributes, and then scored them by where each of their individual rankings fell within the rest of player in the world. No type of ranking formula is perfect, but I actually thought the simplicity of this formula gave good results.

Here is list of the top 20 pure hitters in the World
1 Carlos Johnson
2 Clint Hutton
3 Rafael Cedeno
4 Russell Cook
5 Bonk Linton
6 Chili Olsen
7 Eric Thomas
8 Gerald Bradley
9 Alex Cordero
10 Harry Huff
11 Rusty Jones
12Andres Tarasco
13 Vic Moreno
14 Lawrence Trammell
15 Rudy Griffiths
16 Esteban Montanez
17 Tony Rivera
18 Don Gwynn
19 Homer Monroe
20 Steve Taylor

Just for curiosity sake (and because I have a player on this list) I also listed the 10 absolute worst hitters in the league.

Mitch Alexander
Seth Crawford
Ivan Torres
Reggie Black
Fernando Ordaz
Sam King
Benji Gonzalez
Josh Gilbert
Cory Painter
Corey White

Thursday, October 23, 2008

S10 Draft Review

This year my scouting was not as strong as it has been in the past so you might see your players significantly different than I saw them.

Top Ten Draft Prospects

#1 SP Russell Martin
#2 SP Andrea Eiland
#3 SP Marc Bunning
#4 SP Jermaine Knepper
#5 IF Curtis Shumaker
#6 SP Hector Bonilla
#7 SP Edwin McGowan
#8 IF Harold Diaz
#9 OF Duke Webster
#10 SP Tommy Blake

The biggest story of this draft has to be the depth of All-Star Caliber SP that came out. It is akin to the SP version of the 1983 NFL draft. On the flip side the offensive side seemed to lack much punch and that problem was exacerbated even more so by the shunning of a contract offer by super-star prospect Britt Robertson, whose offensive numbers read like 86 CON 88 POW 100 vL 86 vR 76 BE. Other than him I only saw 2 offensive prospects that might put up any sort of numbers that could get them Silver Slugger type awards.

Anaheim – A solid SP Brian Winn should make the majors but his control will keep him from being an all-star. About the best you can expect from the 24th pick.
In the supplemental round got a great 3B Paul Maduro that could have been picked higher.
Got a Gold Glove type CF in Craig Cooke with pick 41.
Another good player with their second round pick 1B Stuart Speaker
Got 2 good setup man in John Glanville and Carl Winn Then two defensive catchers in Charlie Blankenship and Santiago Martin later in the draft.
Wasn’t a draft full of all-stars, but it is possible his first 8 picks could contribute some way to the major league team one day. Did a great job of getting the most talent available when they picked.


Arizona
- SP Wesley Piper was picked at number 13. He’s got a rubber arm and great control, but unless my scouts are way off I don’t see his L/R splits as major league material.
Again maybe it’s my scouts but I like his 3rd round pick Woody Martin looks much better than his 1st round selection.

Atlanta – An all round solid 3b Hersh Hodges looks like a typical solid draft pick from ATL again.

Solid hitting and decent glove C Adrian Parris was picked up in the supplemental round
Sam Reid was nabbed in the second round and should do well.
Another good draft by Atlanta.

Augusta – SP Eric Bell was picked 31. Decent splits and control, but pitch rating isn’t spectacular. Second round SP Al Valenzuela is almost the opposite. OK L/R splits, but great pitch ratings.

Austin – One of the stories of this draft is the big gamble to draft Britt Robertson. He probably had the biggest upside of any player in the draft. Personally I saw him as a 100 OVR player, but he said he was determined not to sign. Still I’ve seen these guys sign albeit to huge contracts. So teams had to decide to play it safe or potentially let a Randy Moss type player drop to teams below them. I personally think it was a good gamble since they had the prospect money available, but unfortunately it did not work out.

At least they got a dependable RP Cal Robertson, who even if he doesn’t develop already has 92 DUR/26 STA, so he can give you at least an inning in 90+ games a season.

Boise – This was a draft that was top heavy and had some great all-stars available early in the draft. Boise picked up one of those guys in Curtis Shumaker. He is ready to play in the majors today and will certainly be up in a season or two, I think he is the player in the draft that is closest to producing in the major leagues. What makes him so good is not just his great bat and solid glove; but he has superb durability, speed, and makeup. A true cornerstone player.
Picked solid hitting 1B Tony Humphries in the second.
Interesting RP George Ball looks to be a nice long relief type guy.

Boston – Almost seems unfair that a team this good got a very good SP Tommy Blake so late in the draft. Good splits, DUR/STA, and pitch ratings.
Then got a very nice closer in Anthony Montgomery with pick #69. This was a pretty good draft for where they picked.

Chicago NL – This team is going to have a scary pitching duo up in the majors very soon. With the fourth pick in the draft Russell Martin was choosen and will join Galahad Mercker as almost certainly the best young SP duo in the league. Even if they barely make the playoffs, who would feel comfortable facing them in a 5 game series? It would remind me of the 2001 Diamondbacks team that was a decent team but could throw Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling at teams during the playoffs. Obviously the 2001 Arizona team is their model, because they drafted a Tony Womacks clone Delino Gonzalez in the second round.
Just based on Martin alone this is one of the best drafts in the league.

Chicago NL – Grabbed a certain all-star SP in Marc Bunning who looks to be just a stellar prospect. Any team would have been happy with this pick at #5. No weakness in this pitcher, his great STA/DUR ratings mean he can easily pitch 220+ IPs. Control, vL, vR and pitch ratings all seem top notch.

Cincinnati – Sorry to say this, but Rick Starr just doesn’t have the control to be an effective pitcher. He really has some great ratings, but that control is too much to overcome.
Their second pick though seems to be a solid hitter in Kent Karl. Then 3rd round pick Tom Anderson looks to be at least a decent back of the order type pitcher.

Cleveland - Daryl Simms looks to be the typical high quality speedy defensive player that Cleveland likes to build their team around. So is second round pick Pepper Buchanan.

Colorado – Unfortunately this is another team that just seemed to ignore the control rating for a pitcher. Tom Morris has decent SP ratings except he is going to walk about 6 guys every 9 innings, which is deadly in Colorado.


Dover
– Picked up a very good SP in Edwin McGowan. His pitch ratings keep him from being on par with a couple of the spectacular SPs drafted earlier, but he’s worth the pick at number 9.
OF/1B Kris Harper seems to be a nice high OBP kind of guy.


Florida
– Sam Wood hasn’t signed and wasn’t even offered a contract since Florida signed IFA Orber Pulido. Well if Florida traded a team Wood for Pulido and a first round draft pick next year I think it would be vetoed so I think it was a smart move dropping Wood to get Pulido.
Then grabbed a nice DH Jerry Richardson in round 2 and a decent hitting 1B Vic Arias in round 3.


Hartford
– SP Harry Gonzales doesn’t have ideal control for an SP, but his splits and pretty good pitch ratings might be enough to overcome it.
Oddly enough 2nd round pick is the exact opposite. Bubba Nash has pinpoint accuracy, but his splits are pretty average. Still a decent pick for selection number 74.
For being the 106th pick in the draft I actually like Jamey Koch. Decent splits and good enough control, his flaw is obviously below average stamina that will probably relegate him to long relief or setup duties, still I’m sure if needed he could fill in to start a game or two if needed.

Helena – With the first pick in the draft Helena choose Hector Bonilla. He will certainly have a long career in the big leagues, and he could probably throw 250 innings a season which will save their bullpen. I still don’t think he was the best pitcher in the draft and probably not even the second best. But in HBD we don’t get to see every prospect so I don’t fault Helena with who they choose. Bonilla will anchor the rotation for many seasons.
While I don’t think number 1 pick Bonilla was the best player in the draft, I think Helena had one of the best drafts based on both getting him and getting the best supplemental round SP in Braden Friend. He could have easily been picked 15-20 spots sooner. Then they got one of the best closers in the draft 3 picks later in Tarrik Munoz.
Add a quality setup men Cedrick Jenkins and Carl Greenwood then a Long Relief/Mopup guy in Todd Parker and you have in my opinion one of if not the top draft in the league. I realize that it doesn’t seem like I’m really going out on a limb giving the guy with the first pick in the draft the best grade, but I have seen plenty of times a team take the first pick and then completely drop the ball on the rest of the draft. Helena got ½ an entire pitch staff in one draft which is an impressive feat.

Iowa – with the 15th pick in the draft Iowa selected Harold Diaz. He’s a great looking IF that has a great bat. His health and durability probably lead to him dropping to #15. He’s playing SS in the minors, but he just doesn’t have the glove to be a SS in the majors.
2nd round pick Harold Diaz is a very similar player, good bat but not really a SS.
He’s not a star, but 3rd rounder Jordan O'Neill also has a shot at the majors.

Kansas City – Got a really nice leadoff type 2B in Josh Donahue, he looks like a .400+ OBP guy with some speed.
In the second round they got a solid 3B in Jimmie Ordonez, who isn’t spectacular at anything, but does everything above average.
They got one of the best defensive SS’s in the draft in Paulie Byrdak with the 96th pick. His bat will never be an asset, but his glove might be so good he gets in a lineup.

Las Vegas
- Stevie Park looks like a quality player with a good future. Like his contact and BE rating. Looks like Les Weber too me.

CF Andrew Davis was picked in the supplemental draft, should do well and has some nice pop in his bat.

Louisville
– The 16th pick in the draft was Howie Oliver. As far as pure “stuff” goes I like him as a pitcher. He’s got great control, good splits, and nice pitch ratings. What I don’t like is that he’s a tweener pitcher. His DUR rating means he can’t start on regular rest, and he doesn’t have great stamina either. So at best he throws 105 IPs a season or so, kind of like a Warren Nielsen type guy. We don’t know what players the owner saw available here, and he will be a useful player, but at #16 it seems a little high for me.
Their next pick was the third round and they got Grant Dixon. He looks like a pretty good pitcher for the third round. Oddly enough I only think he is a notch below their first round pick, but being picked 94th makes me give it a much better grade.
Their fourth round pick is in the mold of the first two picks they had, still any chance to get some production out of the fourth round is decent and Harold Moss has a shot at the majors.
5th round selection looks a lot like guys I select around then, Danys Chavez. Great power and BE so he will probably be a HR champ at AAA, but his chances of hitting above .230 in the majors is slim.

Memphis – Hasn’t picked this high in the draft since season 1 when they got Glenn Kubenka. While Glenn became the face of this quality franchise, I just don’t think Preston Forrest will be that guy for them. Maybe it is my less than stellar scouting, but to me it looks like his control, and L/R splits are all just barely average.
In the second round they got a tweener pitcher in Joe Hogan, but he really has good ratings other than STA/DUR so I think he will do fine in the big leagues.
3rd rounder 2B J.T. Roth is interesting because so many of his numbers or either huge (like his contact and range in the 90s) or tiny (power less than 10 and AS in the 40s) I actually like offensive players that excel in something even with a weakness over a guy that is just average in many things.
5th round pick Wayne Collier I see as a utility infielder type guy.

Milwaukee – In one season Milwaukee went from picking 2nd, to picking 29th. So they actually had to work to find talent instead of trying to pick which all-star they wanted. Ben Hennessey won’t be a cornerstone player like they have drafted in recent years, but he’s a decent RP that can throw a few innings.
Barney Shaw is a power hitting COF/1B, but has health issues and it’s already bit him.
4th round pick Wayne Durbin looks like a 25th guy on the roster type guy.

Minnesota – SP Gabe Curtis is a solid, but not spectacular a SP. A fine pick for very late first round pick.
With the 41st pick they got Reagan Cassidy who is a not quite as good as their earlier pick, but might be a back of the rotation type guy.
Nashville – SP Jermaine Knepper looks to be an ideal starter. Great STA/DUR combo, excellent contact and L/R splits. The pitch ratings are a bit low, but his contact and splits are so high I don’t think it’s a huge concern.
2nd round pick Phillip Carr is a decent hitting IF. Not an all-star, but should be a decent roll player.

NY (AL) – IF Eric Anderson is a solid hitting IF with a glove just a bit below SS standards. Great pick for #30 and should be a asset for this team for many years.
Six picks later they got CF Edwards Terry, another fine role player on a good team. Doesn’t blow you away with any of his ratings, but has nice rating everywhere and is another piece of the puzzle toward a championship.

Salem – Picking 12th is usually around the beginning of the time that all the perennial all-star type guys have been grabbed and teams are trying to pick from the best of the second tier guys. Albert Richard is a switch hitting RF that has some pop. Reminds me of Homer Monroe.
I really like C prospect Isaac Hernandez, he’s an excellent defensive catcher who has enough of a bat that he could be in the starting lineup.
5th round pick Wally Harmon actually has a shot of being on the major leagues one day.

Scottsdale – Having a hard time judging their draft. First round pick has not signed and I did not scout him. Second round pick looks good except for that bad control rating. This team actually put a lot of money into prospect budget, so my guess is they are waiting for a big IFA fish to come along.

Scranton – Picking third in the draft they got franchise SP Andrea Eiland who was yet another fine SP in this draft. There is not much bad you can say about him. Easily will pitch 250+ innings a seasons, 270 wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility and he should be an all-star numerous times.
Next they grabbed a very nice RP Everett Winston. Now his control is decent, and L/R splits good, but his STA/DUR is phenomenal and so are his pitch ratings. Great pick at #49.
IF Bret Duffy is a decent guy.

Texas – Loves drafting big hitting sluggers, and that’s what Duke Webster is. I don’t consider him the best overall player in the draft, but he could easily be the guy the puts up the gaudiest offensive numbers. Reminds me of Steve Taylor but it’s scary how close his projections are to Yamid Sierra. One of the few quality sluggers available in the this draft.
With the 39th pick in the supplemental round they got a solid RP Jacque Radke.
2nd round pick Sam Nielsen looks like a decent big leaguer as does OF Chuck Vogelsong.

Toronto – First round pick hasn’t signed yet, second rounder SP Steven Wolf looks decent for the back of the rotation.
3rd rounder CF Charles Daniels is a speedster with a great glove, but his bat will keep him on the bench most of the game.

Vancouver – Had 3 picks between 32 and 43, and proceeded to use all of them on RPs. Decent group of setup type guys, Tom Smoak and Don Pettibone are very similar type pitchers. One of their advantages is they both project to DUR in the 90s, so a rested bullpen is almost a sure thing. Felipe Cruz is more of that tweener type SP/RP.
2nd rounder Paul Cannon is a defensive wizard, but the bat is just ok. A backup in the majors is about all he can expect.
Rob Turner is an interesting prospect because he is so raw. Maybe my scouting is off on him because his current ratings are just ok, but power and BE projections are off the charts, and contact and L/R are decent. He might never make the majors, but if he develops in 5-6 seasons he might actually be a force in the majors.

Washington – The poor showing in the draft wasn’t due to this owners fault. Our pleas to WifS were not heard to get the former owner replaced before the draft occurred. Wayne Enders was taken in the first round and he just doesn’t have the L/R splits to be a ML pitcher.
2nd rounder Dan Brocail actually might be a decent RP eventually.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

The “Where were our scouts on that guy” all-star team.

Guys drafted below number 75 that have gone on to produce at the ML level. Virtually every team had at least two shots at these players and most team picked up career minor leaguer sometime before these guys.
1B Lon Morris Won rookie of the year in S5 and was the Gold Glove 1B in S6. His best season he hit .287/55/136, and had another seasons of .261/54/120. Drafted #116 in S3 he has had one of the most impressive out of nowhere guys careers.
RF Rex McMillon. In S9 Hit .315/30/115 with 200 hits. Drafted #75 in S4.
DH Happy Pressley is going into his 5th season in the majors. His best season was S7 when he had 191 Hits while batting .357. He is a career .314 Hitter with .374 OPB. Happy was picked #141 in S3
C Lee Mitchell is starting his 4th season as starting catcher for Las Vegas. He has a solid glove, and in S9 hit .311/36/111 for the team. By far this player is better than anyone picked almost 200 slots ahead of him as he was pick #344 in S2, Lee is the lowest picked player to make the list.

SS Vinny Hayes. Anaheim’s slick fielding starting SS drafted #104 in S4.
RP Eduardo Velazquez. In S8 he was 14-3 w/ 3.52 ERA. He’s 28-18 w/ 19 Saves in 298 Career innings. Eduardo was drafted #85 in S3.
C David Mayne took a long time to get to the majors. Drafted in S1 he did not get any meaningful playing time until S8. He’s a great defensive catcher with pop in his bat. In S9 he was an all-star, won the gold glove, and the HR Derby. His best season was S9 when he hit .288/43/122, which might not be that impressive for a C more suited for a DH, but this guy is a top notch defensive Catcher. David lasted until pick #136 in S1.
1B Brace Iannone is no longer in the majors, but for three seasons (6-8) he averaged 42 HRs 121 RBIs while batting .287. Certainly these are better numbers than his pick of #144 would indicate.
RP Bill Hitchcock is starting his second full season as Salem’s closer, last season he saved 34 games with a 3.71 ERA. He was drafted #185 in S4
C T.J. Ausmus made it to the big leagues in his second pro season, and actually played pretty well in his third pro season. Still contributing this many seasons after being drafted #189 in S3.
RP Bernard Morgan is in his third season in the majors. He has a career 4.14 ERA while winning 12 games in 144 IPs. Bernard was drafted #166 in S3.
C John Simmons is one of the premier defensive catchers in the game. He was the starting catcher for NY in their Championship season in S8. He was drafted #171 in S3.

C/DH Timothy Hardy is one of the best hitting catchers in the league. He has a career .429 OBP and career 1.023 OPS in 423 career games. He was draft #76 in S2.

RP Tom Hoffman is entering his 3rd season as the Vegas closer. He’s been very effective and over his career he has a 1.24 WHIP and 3.45 ERA in 185 IPs. Pretty good for being drafted #101 in S2.
DH Richie Stanley has just put in one season in the majors. But in S9 he hit .341 in 466 ABs. Not bad for a guy drafted #216 in S4.
RP Mikey Henderson has been a capable setup B type guy. Over the past 3 seasons he has a 3.75 ERA. He was drafted #121 in S2.

RP Al Ortiz has had a bit of a roller coaster career, but in his travels actually pitched well in Cincy. Drafted #146 in S2

Friday, August 8, 2008

Anaheim - Drafted a franchise 1B in Quentin Riggs who should do very well. I see him as a Will Clark kind of player.

Bo Yarnall in the second round looks like a backup C. He is ML material and Bo knows how to do everything ok, but doesn’t excel in any area.

Third round pick Max Estrada is interesting. I’ll say chances are that his ratings won’t translate into a great MLB player. His control and splits are slightly above average to mediocre, but he has two highly rated pitches might be enough to overcome the others. For a third round pick I think it was a great gamble on a guy that might have some upside.

Arizona
– Pick SPs late in the first round almost always gets a guy that has a couple of warts. Allen Sisco should have a decent career, but his vR rating and 4th pitch certainly not ideal.

8 of their next 9 picks after Sisco were also pitchers. Usually this is just an accidental consequence to trying to prioritize pitchers (or another position), but it rarely seems to produce the best results in a draft. Second round pick Brian Bannister The combination of low splits and two very low pitch counts doesn’t seem to indicate success at the major league level.

Atlanta
– If 1st round pick Bill Swisher signs (sorry can’t link unsigned players) they will have gotten a great hitting catcher that is passable behind the plate. His durability is low, but the almost 30 point difference in vR and vL ratings make him a great half of a tandem. Looks like he won’t sign though.

In the supplemental round the got a decent SP/LRA in Eduardo Cruz. He is versatile guy who could fill the roll of starter or a good long relief type pitcher.

In round two ATL got Shane James who has great DUR/STA ratings and solid enough numbers to make it to the majors. Like with 90% of the RPs out there whether he is actually an effective RP is up to the HBD gods.

3rd and 4th rounds they picked Charlie Rakers and Emmanuel Sanchez who look very much like their second round pick except with not quite as impressive DUR/STA ratios. 3rd and 4th round picks are iffy to be making the majors so any player that has a shot at producing in the majors is a good pick.

Atlanta always has picked toward the end of the draft, if their first round pick signs then this will be a very good draft for where they picked. If he doesn’t than at least they got half a bullpen for the future.

Augusta – Drafted SP Juan James with the 25th pick in the draft. He’s looks to be a #3,4 or 5 pitcher. Good control and 4 decent pitchers, maybe a pitching coach can get him to drop that 5th pitch which is currently rated a 9. I think in the pitch list it is actually noted as being underhanded.

In the supp round they drafted a nice hitting 1B/LF Ben Simms who will have a great BA, but won’t exactly knock the cover off the ball. He’ll do well at the major league level.

With their second supp pick they drafted Davy Duran, a slick fielding 2B/CF type guy. Actually I really like this guy and he could have been drafted sooner except for what I see as a very dismal DUR rating in the low 60s. You have to have a platoon ready for players with DUR ratings in the low 60s, but when it comes to making a choice between a talented guy with low DUR and not so talented guy with DUR in the 90s – go for the talent.

In round two they got a quality defensive SS in Roger Taylor. Hopefully that really high contact rating will keep his BA in the acceptable range to keep his glove in the lineup.

I don’t see 3rd round pick Louie Johnson as being an impact SP, but maybe he makes the team as LR/Mopup type guy.

Austin
- Juan Santiago was a good pick at number 9 in the draft. He’s a quality leadoff hitter that will get on base and steal bases. He’ll never be in the MVP discussion, but he just looks like the type of player that can create a lot of havoc in a game for an opposing team.

They grabbed another CF with their next pick, Jeffrey Eaton. He has gold glove type defense and an adequate bat.

Boise - Timothy Roberts looks to be a great closer, but I will say the same thing I wrote about when Milwaukee got Gregg Goulet with the fifth pick a few seasons again. I find it hard to justify picking a player that high in the draft when he will only pitch 45-60 IPs a season. Next RPs seem to be the most volatile position in the game when there was probably options that are sure things. That said if you can solidify a position in need for 10 seasons he will look back and be happy.

I actually like Vinny Durham about as much as their first round pick. He’s a starter and has a number of highly rated pitches.

Vinny Durham picked in the 3rd round also looks like a decent RP.

Boston
– Grabbed slugging 3B Charlie Towers with the 19th pick in the draft. He doesn’t have ideal contact or batting eye, but he has monster power and L/R splits.

They seemed to like Charlie Towers so much they drafted his brother Shane Towers in the next round. He will probably be a platoon type guy.

Chicago
– drafted CF/2B Pat Richard in the first round. He’s playing SS now, but 55 errors in rookie league don’t seem to translate into successful big league SS. He could be a great CF/2B. He has some pop in his bat and a great batting eye. Good solid talent, but not the kind of bat that will carry a team.

For being the 67th guy picked in the draft Delino Benitez looks like a solid SP, on par with and better than many of the SPs picked late in round one or in the supplemental round.

Chicago Lookouts – Picked up the best player in the draft in Galahad Mercker. He is a virtually lock to play in multiple all-star games.

Tony O'Neill is actually a pretty good pickup and I can see him as a core player for this team for many years.

3rd round choice Willie McMillon couldn’t hit a RH pitcher to save his life, but he might be the best defensive SS drafted this season. Much worse players could have been picked in the third round.


Cincinnati – With the 13th pick choose Andrew Malone. He’s a solid pitcher, not spectacular but should hit the majors. 2 of his four pitcher look good, but 2 look below average, and his splits are just average ML material. His OVR rating is bumped up by his rubber arm which could though 250+ innings if you wanted him on the mound that long. He could be pitching in the big leagues in two seasons though as he is already pretty far along in development.

Colorado
– While first round pick Otis Roth didn’t seem to indicate that he would hold out, it looks like the sixth pick in the draft might not sign. Too bad since he looked like a good player that could hit both lefties and righties, even at 19 he could probably play on numerous teams today. His vL and vR ratings are already at 63 now.

Unfortunately second round pick Andy Adcock just proves that poor control can doom the best rated pitchers. Every other number is major league material, but that control has doomed him to a 10.70ERA in rookie ball.

While he’s not without blemish, 3rd round pick RP Yannick Andrews actually looks like he could be a decent relief guy.

Dover – Got one of the stars in the draft with Brett Bell with the 5th pick in the draft. Sure you wish his Stamina topped out in the mid 80s instead of upper 60s, but he will still be a stellar SP and should win many awards. The bad news is that he broke his arm this season, at least on the bright side for going on the 60 day DL he only dropped 2 OVR points.

It seems pretty clear that WifS changed some player creation matrix and added the extreme platoon player, and one of the best could be Jeff Sutton. Outside of his vL rating he could be an all-star. Played correctly and he will be a very productive player at the big league level.

Watty Brumfield would have a solid bat for a gold glove type SS or 2B, unfortunately he can only play DH or 1B and would be below average at those power hitter type positions.

Florida – Took an interesting player at #18 in William Harris. He has a great bat and I could see him hitting .330+ in the majors. But he has some unique skills, for instance he projects to having a superb glove. But his range is a bit low for 2B and his arm is well below average. Not often do we see a great glove rating with all the other defensive skills being average to below average. He also could be the fastest guy in the league with 100 speed rating, but his base running skills are suspect. He’s already tearing up the rookie league, and I’m sure in 3-4 seasons he will be doing the same in the bigs.

George Herman looks to be another in a trend of very talented players that can only hit from one side of the plate. Oddly enough he is a lefty that can only hit lefties, but should do it very well.

Fifth rounder Luis Alvarez looks to be a very good defensive backup catcher.

Hartford – This team had 6 picks in the first 2 rounds, but none before #29. Richie Cox is a superb hitter, but his catching skills leave a lot to be desired. Hartford has already tried experimenting with him at LF, but not sure this is his best chance at the majors either.

With the 37th pick they grabbed future 1B Mateo Dominguez who looks like he could be a star. Hits everything well and should be a very good 1B for many seasons.

Ok we get it, Chone likes slugging 1B types. Orber Mullin picked at #47 is very similar to the guy they grabbed 10 picks earlier, but he doesn’t hit RH pitchers as well. Three picks later they grabbed another one of these guys, but he won’t sign.

Connie Grant won’t be able to pitch a ton of innings, but he’s a solid RP that should make the majors. Later in the 2nd round they got another RP Tracy Gold who should also be in the majors in a few seasons.

Indianapolis
- Christopher Brewington is a good hitting RF and was picked about where he should be in the draft. Won’t be a superstar, but will be a solid core player for this team.

B.J. Durham has a decent bat, but it might be a little light if he can only play in a traditional power position like RF/LF/1B.

Las Vegas – Got a pretty good SP Patrick Champion with the 12th pick. Solid all around he should be a major league pitcher for many seasons.

Supplemental pick Dwight King might make is as a major league SP, but that control is borderline.

Louis Castillo looks like a decent setup man in a few seasons for Vegas.

Little Rock – Well Arte got a steal of a player at #28, Hipolito Prieto is a solid guy that should have a great career for LR.

Late in the second round they also got a pretty good setup man in Sherm Blair.

He won’t be a star, but 4th round pick Alexander Gibson might actually get some meaningful ABs in the majors. Pretty good for a 4th rounder.

Louisville – Is another team that had multiple 1st and 2nd round picks. With #23 they got DH/C/1B Vincenzo Osborne who is a talented hitter that they are going to have to find a place for on the field.

With multiple first round picks you can gamble on a quality SP with low health. Sammy Paniagua is a quality player, but his low health rating has already landed him on the DL with a major injury. Here’s hoping he is able to recover and get back on track.

2nd round pick Tomas Lee looks like a nice closer for the future. Norman White is one of those tweener type pitchers with his STA/DUR combo that will probably end him up as a long relief type guy.

Memphis – Actually had the fortune of having two picks in the top 20. At #17 they got IF William Satou, who has a very good bat and will be a core player for them. He probably won’t be able to play SS in the majors, but his bat is good enough that you don’t have to worry about him not producing enough at another position.

With pick #20 the got power hitting OF Tiny Gardner, this is the kind of guy that can carry a team offensively. Nice to see a team get extra draft picks and they produce such a good crop of guys.

2nd rounder Thumper McIntosh looks like a nice setup/closer type, and bringing in a closer named Thumper just sounds cool.

Milwaukee – Second pick in the draft was David Cooper, a solid fielding IF with a great bat. Looks like this is the last time Milwaukee will be picking this high for a while as they have been flirting all season with the second best record in the AL.

Didn’t pick again until the third round and got a very good player in Will Richardson. He could be a core player in the future for this team. 4th rounder Quilvio Santiago looks like a decent backup IF.

Minnesota – Had 4 picks between 24 and 49, and they signed them all. Justin Shields is a quality IF that is doing very well in rookie ball so far.

I’m not sure if Willis Roundtree will become a successful major leaguer. He has great numbers all around except for L/R splits which are below average. His pitch ratings are nice and he has great control, so maybe he does make it.

Felix Kimura is a supplemental pick that should turn out to be a good 2B with nice OBP.

Both Chad Torrealba and Alex Pinzon are fringe talent that could end up on the roster.

Monterrey
– Has a history of drafting well, and is starting to show some signs of improving at the ML level. Dale Presley is another solid pick. I kind of see him as a #3 or #4 starter that can throw a ton of innings.

Didn’t pick again until the third round and got Jim Moriarty. Chances are his control limits him from being a star, but a pretty good pick for a SP in the third round.

Nashville
– With the 8th pick in the draft the grabbed Tim Cook who offensively looks a lot like Timothy Bryne , who I think is one of the unheralded stars in this league. Cook’s numbers will probably be very similar to Bryne’s with a .330 career BA, .950 OPS, will produce at any spot in the batting order from 1-5, but only average about 450 ABs per season. He’s a very nice pickup.

Second round pick Boomer Roth actually might have a glove good enough to play SS, and he has a pretty good bat to go with that. Another quality pickup at this point in the draft.

NY - Harry Lugo looks like a pretty standard MLB OF. Decent numbers all round, but nothing extremely well. He is tearing it up in rookie ball.

Salem – Picked up a decent SP with the 15th pick in Dion Wilkerson. Very nice pitch rating and should be able to throw a ton of inning.

Miguel Furcal looks to be a typical OF for the ML team.

I actually really like their 3rd round pick, the 100th guy taken in the draft. Curt Palmer has good stuff, stamina is a bit low for most SPs but he should be able to get 5 good innings a game. He’s doing well so far.

Salt Lake City
– Picked up the premier RP in the draft with Neil Meadows at #21. He’s raw and has a long way to go, but it’s a good pick and should play for many seasons in SLC despite his rough start so far in the minors.

Rip Lawrence is probably going to be a decent long reliever. Control will be an issue for him. Randy Brown is also a borderline productive ML’er, which is what you expect so late in the second round.

Kyle McNamara looks to be a pretty good defensive CF, that can maybe hit well enough to start.

Scottsdale
– Had the third pick in the draft. This won’t be pretty for Scottsdale because the guy really looked like just a slightly above average major league ball player, but he spurned the offer and didn’t sign. Wayne Wheeler looks like a capable RP. The good news is that by next draft this former rookie owner will have completed 6 drafts and I’m sure he’ll land something decent with that pick.

Texas
– Drafted a powerful slugging IF Ron Conti with pick #10. He should have a respectable average and OBP, and could easily hit 45-50 HRs in any season.

2nd round pick Henry Simpson looks to be a decent prospect that should make the team in 3-4 seasons.

Toronto – I’m still somewhat torn about Yorrick Walton being a successful big league player. Maybe its my poor scouting, but I see his vR rating really low and he doesn’t seem to have a good enough pitch ratings to overcome his vR rating. That said he is doing well in the rookie league so far.

Second round pick didn’t sign, but the third rounder Bernard O'Neil looks to at the very least be a speedy defensive CF off the bench, and maybe more.

Vancouver
– The first of three first round picks was Rob Neal who is a very raw closer prospect. Given time he should develop into a quality RP, but he is probably at least 4-5 seasons away.

David Perez looks like he will develop into a productive ML starter, but probably won’t get his glove quite up to the SS requirements. Might be good enough at least be an emergency backup for SS while manning 3B/2B. One note about this player, combine poor HS scouting with average advance scouting and you get a player that projects a whopping 10 points below what my HS scout thought he was, ouch.

The final first round pick was Rudy Patterson who is a Hal Morris like 1B.

2nd rounder Abraham Waters might have a career as a platoon OF.

Washington
– Didn’t pick until the supplemental round, Kris Cobb probably tops out at being a 5th starter/Long Relief type pitcher.

Got a nice power hitting 1B Pete Mitchell with the 40th pick.

Also got a quality OF in the second round Nate Taylor. Nice player that has a good glove and a good enough bat.