The predictions are in and the blog doesn't do well listing columns and rows excel style very well so I just mentioned how many times a team was listed to win or on the wildcard.
AL North
Minnesota x3
Chicago x2
AL East
NY x3
DC x2
AL South
Texas x2
Santa Fe
OK City
Mem
AL West
Scottsdale x4
Salem
Wildcard
Chicago
Salem
Indy
Sacramento x3
Santa Fe
DC
NY
Scottsdale
NL North
St. Louis x3
Cincy
Cleveland
NL East
Hartford x3
Boston
KC
NL South
Atlanta x4
Houston
NL West
Anaheim x5
NL Wildcard
St. Louis
Houston x4
Cincy
Monterey
Boston
Hartford
KC
Friday, September 14, 2007
Friday, September 7, 2007
Free Agency Review
Reviewed the top 20 teams in terms of signing impacts at the time of setting the teams for rule 5 Draft. Also this list is focussed on helping the team this season.
Anaheim - Showed he's not afraid to get players that are a little older. Signed 6 guys older than 36 with a total of 8 All star games between them so they have had success. 2 setup/closer types a SP and a backup catcher that can smack the ball around in the 1/3 games he can play in. Ramiro Suarez, Jason Stair, Mendy Aoki and Eric Franklin will turn this staff around, and picking up Albert Guzman for a song was gravy. Gets my vote for best free agency due to quantity and quality.
Austin - Signed a very nice back of the rotation SP William Woo. 200 IP 4.50 and only .67 HR per start can be expected.
Boston - Signed one of the few top of the line defensive SS, not a great bat but enough of one that he can play in the majors. Add another decent bat and the Hot or Cold SP Vin Lee. He in third in career shutouts, but can also get lit up.
Chicago - resigned their own back in OF Santayana and RP Diaz, and hoping they play like season four and not season five.
Cincinnati - Got a career .376 OBP outfielder and a solid RP.
Dover - Got SP Clay Reese and Dustin Sutton at a bargain basement prices, not much risk for a SP with good history. Then picked up a nice defensive CF Shane Wilson.
Honolulu - Picked up two top notch defensive catcher and a very solid defender at SS.
Indianapolis - Grabbed a decent look SP, who is untested in the majors. Also got a nice RP in Aaron Hall.
KC - Harry Chavez hit 52 HRs last year and should add some punch, plus Norman Freeman and Brent Diaz should make this a potent lineup. Zephyr Cora is also a very good option at RP.
LV - Grabbed a solid defensive SS.
LA - Got one of the best defensive SS available in Bailey Crawford. Marchall Decker is a quality LH bat and Darrell Castillo looked like a decent pitcher once he left Coors field.
Milwaukee - Signed two defensive SS, Lawton was a minor league FA but actually looks like he can catch the ball.
Monterrey - Plugged up holes in the bullpen with two solid vets.
NY - Surprisingly quiet since their biggest rival made a splash in FA, really just held on to Brinkley
Sacramento - Toby Weston will fill the LRA role nicely for this team. If Garcia keeps the walks down he might help the back of the rotation.
Salem - Salem found an inning eating SP, and quality LH RP.
Scottsdale - Terry Cummings fills a long relief/emergency SP role for the team, and late additions of Marc Wayne and Matt Charles help to makeup for the loss of 340 IPs from Vitas Sobkowiak and Ramiro Saurez
St. Louis - One of the better FA classes in the league. Picked up some power in Matthew Bravo, and grabbed a couple of bench guys and RP Mack Ramirez.
Washington DC - A close second in FA sweepstakes. Started with stealing NYs starting 3B in Mark Ross and then grabbed 3 of the best young RPs available in Gookie Sellers, Steve Childers, and Miguel Molina.
Wichita - He was able to comeback and sign his own solid group of departing FA in Al Chambers, Robin Sullivan, and Brian Maeda, then picked up an Inning eating SP in George Bell who came on strong at the end of last season.
Big Draft Winners - cashed in on getting draft picks for losing FAs.
St. Louis
Indianapolis
NY
Top Free Agent Team
Anaheim - If you are talking about helping their team this season they blew the other teams away in free agency from the beginning to the end. If their is any downside it is the almost exclusively older guys.
Blue Ribbon Tier - No particular order
DC - Obvious plan in FA and all the guys are younger players.
Wichita - Spent a lot of money and some of the guys have either little or spotty history of success. The Julio Lopez signing seemed high for a guy that is 31, plays 1B, and spent the last two seasons in AAA and couldn't hit .260 or 20HRs. That said three or four of his other signings look good.
St. Louis - If a couple of his signing rebound from poor seasons he could have the classic low risk high return type players. Also this team really needed a power hitter and Bravo could be perfect for them.
Milwaukee - Maybe some teams signed better players, but the quality defensive SS was a need area for this team and it was filled.
KC - Did a great job getting some offense from a pool of players that was a little shallow this season.
Honoralbe Mention
LA
Boston
Austin
Anaheim - Showed he's not afraid to get players that are a little older. Signed 6 guys older than 36 with a total of 8 All star games between them so they have had success. 2 setup/closer types a SP and a backup catcher that can smack the ball around in the 1/3 games he can play in. Ramiro Suarez, Jason Stair, Mendy Aoki and Eric Franklin will turn this staff around, and picking up Albert Guzman for a song was gravy. Gets my vote for best free agency due to quantity and quality.
Austin - Signed a very nice back of the rotation SP William Woo. 200 IP 4.50 and only .67 HR per start can be expected.
Boston - Signed one of the few top of the line defensive SS, not a great bat but enough of one that he can play in the majors. Add another decent bat and the Hot or Cold SP Vin Lee. He in third in career shutouts, but can also get lit up.
Chicago - resigned their own back in OF Santayana and RP Diaz, and hoping they play like season four and not season five.
Cincinnati - Got a career .376 OBP outfielder and a solid RP.
Dover - Got SP Clay Reese and Dustin Sutton at a bargain basement prices, not much risk for a SP with good history. Then picked up a nice defensive CF Shane Wilson.
Honolulu - Picked up two top notch defensive catcher and a very solid defender at SS.
Indianapolis - Grabbed a decent look SP, who is untested in the majors. Also got a nice RP in Aaron Hall.
KC - Harry Chavez hit 52 HRs last year and should add some punch, plus Norman Freeman and Brent Diaz should make this a potent lineup. Zephyr Cora is also a very good option at RP.
LV - Grabbed a solid defensive SS.
LA - Got one of the best defensive SS available in Bailey Crawford. Marchall Decker is a quality LH bat and Darrell Castillo looked like a decent pitcher once he left Coors field.
Milwaukee - Signed two defensive SS, Lawton was a minor league FA but actually looks like he can catch the ball.
Monterrey - Plugged up holes in the bullpen with two solid vets.
NY - Surprisingly quiet since their biggest rival made a splash in FA, really just held on to Brinkley
Sacramento - Toby Weston will fill the LRA role nicely for this team. If Garcia keeps the walks down he might help the back of the rotation.
Salem - Salem found an inning eating SP, and quality LH RP.
Scottsdale - Terry Cummings fills a long relief/emergency SP role for the team, and late additions of Marc Wayne and Matt Charles help to makeup for the loss of 340 IPs from Vitas Sobkowiak and Ramiro Saurez
St. Louis - One of the better FA classes in the league. Picked up some power in Matthew Bravo, and grabbed a couple of bench guys and RP Mack Ramirez.
Washington DC - A close second in FA sweepstakes. Started with stealing NYs starting 3B in Mark Ross and then grabbed 3 of the best young RPs available in Gookie Sellers, Steve Childers, and Miguel Molina.
Wichita - He was able to comeback and sign his own solid group of departing FA in Al Chambers, Robin Sullivan, and Brian Maeda, then picked up an Inning eating SP in George Bell who came on strong at the end of last season.
Big Draft Winners - cashed in on getting draft picks for losing FAs.
St. Louis
Indianapolis
NY
Top Free Agent Team
Anaheim - If you are talking about helping their team this season they blew the other teams away in free agency from the beginning to the end. If their is any downside it is the almost exclusively older guys.
Blue Ribbon Tier - No particular order
DC - Obvious plan in FA and all the guys are younger players.
Wichita - Spent a lot of money and some of the guys have either little or spotty history of success. The Julio Lopez signing seemed high for a guy that is 31, plays 1B, and spent the last two seasons in AAA and couldn't hit .260 or 20HRs. That said three or four of his other signings look good.
St. Louis - If a couple of his signing rebound from poor seasons he could have the classic low risk high return type players. Also this team really needed a power hitter and Bravo could be perfect for them.
Milwaukee - Maybe some teams signed better players, but the quality defensive SS was a need area for this team and it was filled.
KC - Did a great job getting some offense from a pool of players that was a little shallow this season.
Honoralbe Mention
LA
Boston
Austin
Monday, September 3, 2007
More on Fielding
Looked at the numbers of earned vs unearned runs from season 5.
In Morgan World the average team 89% of the scored runs were earned runs. I used the method of each team's average instead of all combined runs vs. unearned runs because that would lend more weight to teams that gave up more total runs. This way everyone has 1/32 of a say in the league total.
In MLB this season 91% of the runs scored were earned runs.
Morgan world teams varied from a high of 92% to a low of 84%, there were a number around the 91-92% mark.
MLB teams varied from a high of 95% to a low of 87%. Only one team had 94%.
In Morgan World the average team 89% of the scored runs were earned runs. I used the method of each team's average instead of all combined runs vs. unearned runs because that would lend more weight to teams that gave up more total runs. This way everyone has 1/32 of a say in the league total.
In MLB this season 91% of the runs scored were earned runs.
Morgan world teams varied from a high of 92% to a low of 84%, there were a number around the 91-92% mark.
MLB teams varied from a high of 95% to a low of 87%. Only one team had 94%.
Sunday, September 2, 2007
Season 5 pitch rankings
Testing out posting MS excel. This is season 5 team pitch rankings. You'll hat ve to click the pitch to get it large enough to view
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