Wednesday, November 28, 2007

NY Wins the World Series


After going up 3-0, NY heart was racing a bit when Atlanta got the series to 3-2. But in the sixth game they came out and pounded Atlanta to win their first World Series.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

NL Playoff Report - S6

St. Louis won its second straight NL North title, but this season it secured that title much sooner than last. This is still a team defined by the league’s best pitching staff by a significant margin. For much of the season they ran a modified four man rotation, and highest ERA of that four was 3.86. Any four of the SPs Coleman, Gutierrez, Nakajima, or Sierra can go up against the other team’s ace. Matthew Bravo has to one of the best FA pickups this season, he gives the lineup some much needed punch that it was missing last season. This is a team nobody would be surprised to see in the world series.

Hartford took the division crown for the fourth straight season. Hartford statistically has an average pitching staff, but that is quite an accomplishment for the park they play. Their SPs solid and the duo Perez and Terrero won’t embarrass themselves on the mound. This team has to have concerns about its closer Marshall though. His 7.32 ERA could be excused somewhat by their home ball park, but he has a 6.89 road ERA. Up against playoffs teams now you wonder if he will end up costing them a crucial game. Hartford really hopes their offense is powerful enough that closers never come into the picture. Everything this team does revolve around Carlos Johnson, who will certainly have his name all over the record books in Morgan world by the time he retires. He hit .337/66/165 this season, but he’s got help in this lineup. Willie Hawkins had a down year compared to his last couple of seasons, but still has quite a punch. Bob May and Robert Black compliment this lineup well also.

Kansas City is managed by first year owner cheese1981, but he has been able to guide this team to another wild card berth. Obviously he is skilled since I have no idea how he took rookie Rickey McCartney and turned him into a 17-7 3.38 pitcher. They will turn to vets Pete Buddie and Vic Green to through out on the mound the other days. Both have a history of success, but age is starting to creep up on them. They also have a rookie closer that has had an up and down first season. Their offense is where this teams shines, Enrique Ruiz is an elite player, switch hitter that hit .298/49/147 this season. Harry Chavez had almost identical numbers to Ruiz, and the vet Jim Stewart is a true slugger. The player that other teams worry about most is Al Pena, he hits for power, excellent obp, and can steal bases. This is the kind of player that can single handedly win games. Their pitching seems to indicate a trip to the world series would be improbable, teams would regret overlooking a team with this much offensive firepower.

Atlanta has been a true model of consistency in this league. In the last four seasons they have won 105, 107, 106, and 107 games. They win with pitching, speed, defense, and slugging. So your best bet to beat them is to sabotage the team bus. Banjo Melhuse finally took the role of legit Ace going 19-4 w/2.80. Ivan Sojo is out for the season, but they still have 3 quality SPs behind Banjo and a four man rotation is the playoffs is fine. The FA pickup of former Chicago RP Andre Star has really paid off for them and given them a great 8th inning option until Sosa can come in to close out the game. Atlanta isn’t packed with power but catcher Phillip Ford, a former first round draft pick, can knock one out anytime. This team really is based on the Oakland model of a lineup full of high OBP guys, but they add their own touch with some speedsters in Bey Buckley and Andre Hamill. The past 3 seasons they have made it to the LCS, and nothing about this team makes you thing they won’t do it again. To show how consistent this team was I was only able to find 1 team that won the 10 game series against them this season and that was Boston who missed the playoffs, although Harford and St. Louis were both 5-5.

Anaheim was one of the most active teams in signing FAs this spring, and not just spending but spending on quality players. The fruits of that were getting the 2nd seed and the all important first round bye. Eric Franklin and Del Martinez make a nice 1-2 punch in the rotation, but its really the bullpen that excels for this team. 5 of their RPs had sub 4.00 ERAs. This team has a couple of lefty power hitters in Izzy Devereaux (who also had 28 SBs)and Dan Turner. Albert Guzman is a well rounded player that can hit for power and speed. This is a well managed team and while some of the guys are older, I expect to see them as a fixture in the playoffs.

Arizona, you had to wonder last season if the end of an era for this team was coming after they had their worst season ever. Some of their guys were starting to age and they seemed less explosive. This season they showed the rumors of their demise were exaggerated. Connelly had what had to be another MVP season, he had a 1.243 OPS which is just unbelievable. Still you can’t just pitch around him and 4 other guys had 100+ RBIs. Unfortunately for this team they will without their leadoff hitter and gold glove CF Happy McNamara due to injury for the rest of the season. What they do lack though is an ace that can shut down another team. No SP has an ERA below 4.85. What they do have though is an underated closer, Hackman was 31/35 in saves with a 3.89 ERA. We know this offense will score, but how far they go will be determined if some of their SPs can step up.

Monday, November 12, 2007

AL Playoff Report -S6

Chicago makes it into the playoffs after battling Minnesota (who is going to miss the playoffs for the first time ever this season) all season long. This Chicago team is not as dominant as their consecutive 100+ win teams were a few seasons ago, but they can win it all. Vance Damon provides them with a huge bat, averaging 60 HRs 143 RBI since he came into the league; he was around that again this season. Surprisingly this guy has never had a single award at the ML level. George Spence will miss hitting 50HRs and 130RBI for the first time in his career due to a long injury, but he’s back now and will make a splash in the playoffs. Now that age is starting to sap former Cy Young winner Ted Rivera stamina and durability the responsibility of being an ace falls on Rocky Duvall and Torey Cunningham. While Cunningham stepped up and had a career year, cutting a full run off his previous best ERA, Rocky had serious decline after his promising rookie season. The wildcard player for this team could be Hector Machado, if he is even allowed to pitch. Machado has some of the best stuff in Morgan world, but he has a 44 control rating. He can pitch a CG Shutout or get shelled and booted in the 2nd inning. Chicago’s offense is championship caliber, but their SP can be either great or very average. Luckily for them they have some sure bullpen guys like Appier and Rivera that can hold the fort in case a SP has a bad night.

NY has an inspiring offense. It starts with a chillingly fast appetizer of leadoff hitter Estaban Montenez who hit righties just as well as lefties, had a .401 OBP, and stole 53 bases. Then the Elmer Crawford salad, who is a perfect #2 hitter that is well rounded and sets up the big guys. Then you get main course of Tarasco, Cordero, and Jefferies. They have immense power, speed, and OBP. Following them is some very capable side dishes and you can see this is a skillfully constructed and thought-out lineup. If there is any flaw it is that it is extremely RH heavy group of hitters, and it shows when you compare team OPS - .922 vL and .821 vR. NY has a good group of SPs, Clay Lincoln is the most talented of the group. Affeldt leads the world with 23 wins this season, but his 4.95 ERA suggests that he is an innings eater that gets fed from NY’s great offense. With that gaudy offense NY certainly has a chance to win it all, but at some point they will need a SP to step up. What’s interesting about their team also is that while they put up incredible offensive numbers, they were the second best fielding team in the league. Most teams have to sacrifice production to get that kind of fielding.

Washington – Havel would probably get my award for manager of year in the AL (in a tight race between him, Arte, and Exquezeme) What looked like an Atlanta Braves dynasty in the making a few seasons back blew up when a number of their frontline SPs declined due to age or injury. Washington rebuilt and has excelled doing it. They had the 5th best team ERA in the league this season, but not the hammer you were used to seeing them with. They have a superior bullpen that has both stamina and durability. They can cover for SPs that have a bad night early, and hang onto to slim leads late in the game. This really is a team that the sum is better than the parts. Statistically their offense is average and depending on the results of the last two games that might not have a 100 RBI guy. They do have a solid leadoff hitter, and after that 7 guys that his 75+ RBIs. So there are no real easy outs. Plus DC is the best fielding team in the league this year, so you won’t get many freebies from them.

Santa Fe might have won their division is a tight right over Memphis, but they truly are a wild card team. When playing in a +4 +4 stadium anything can happen and you can’t get good reads on how to scout player. SP Juan Pascal for instance has an unimpressive 4.72 ERA, but his road (in 14 starts) ERA is a stellar 2.21. They have some talented pitchers on the staff, but you just don’t know how they will do in that park and the same goes for visiting pitchers. What you do know is that Derrick Flynn and Alan O’Malley with get some licks in on even the best of pitchers. Keep the ball down, and avoid the walks and your pitchers might forgive you for making them pitch in Santa Fe.

Scottsdale will prove a difficult matchup for most any team. They are known for their explosive offense (NY and SCO traded 1st/2nd position in offense rankings all season long) but their pitching was ranked 2nd best this season. Their leadoff hitter is switch hitting rookie Felipe Rodriguez who is 2 SBs away from a 40/40 season. 2 Time MVP Rusty Jones had a dip in production, but still managed .352/47/145 and another year of 1.000+ OPS. Rookie Harry Roque finally added a power hitting left handed bat to the lineup as he, CF Tim Durbin, RF Alex Shibata, and DH Eric Thomas all hit 50+ HRs. Their bench is weak, filled mostly with defensive replacements and has-beens. The four man pitching staff they will use is Jerome Turner, Earl Wilkerson, Jaret Charles, and Virgil Quinn. 3 of them are up for Cy Young award and those same three each had sub 4.00 ERA. Middle relief for this team is just average, but rookie Ed Hitchcock who was rocked when first called up straightened himself out and has proved their most reliable setup man. Will Monroe has also had his best season as a closer, going 39/43 in saves and having a 2.72 ERA. The chink in their armor is fielding. Unlike NY which gets great offense with great fielding Scottsdale is one of the poorer fielding teams, the only position they excel defensively is SS and C.

Salem has built their team on the classic foundation of pitching and defense. They also have a good mix of vets and youth that shows they might not be going away soon. They will throw reigning Cy Young winner Jose Lee on the mound who had another good season. Accompanying him will be vets JC Russell (who had a tough season compared to his history) and Orel Payton. Then the two accomplished former first round draft picks in their rookie season Max Barrios and Bob Thompson. Barrios arguably was their best performing pitcher at 13-4 3.61 ERA, but after Lee they will have some tough decisions to make about which SPs will take the mound. Their closer has locked up the fireman of the year award for a while now. As far as their offense goes Salem has the weakest run total of any playoff team. They really only have one slugger and can’t compete in a slugfest. So they rely on their great pitching and one of the best defenses (including gold glove SS Toombs) to try and win those 3-2 ballgames.