Friday, December 28, 2012

NL PreSeason Power Rankings

PreSeason (Season 26) NL Power Rankings:  Last Year Rankings ( )

1. Chicago (3)-Same owner since Season 17
Last Year 107-55 Div Title and WS Champ
2 Straight Playoff Apps (11 overall)
10 Division Titles (last season 25)
3 NL Champs (last season 25)
2 WS Champs (last season 25)

2. Arizona (1)-Same owner since Season 1
Last Year 109-53 Div Title
1 Straight Playoff Apps (9 overall)
6 Division Titles (last season 25)

3. Toronto (4)-Same owner since Season 1
Last Year 100-62 Wild Card
3 Straight Playoff Apps (6 overall)
5 Division Titles (last season 24)
3 NL Champs (last season 24)
2 WS Champs (last season 24)

4. Salt Lake City (7)-Same owner since Season 20
Last Year 76-86
1 Playoff Apps (last season 24)

5. Scottsdale (5)-Same owner since Season 22
Last Year 87-75 Wild Card
1 Straight Playoff Apps (16 overall)
15 Division Titles (last season 20)
2 NL Champs (last season 20)
2 WS Champs (last season 20)

6. Tampa (2)-Same owner since Season 25
Last Year 105-57 Div Title
4 Straight Playoff Apps (9 overall)
6 Division Titles (last season 25)
1 NL Champs (last season 2)

7. Kansas City (6)-Same owner since Season 17
Last Year 85-77 Div Title
1 Straight Playoff Apps (6 oveall)
4 Division Titles (last season 25)

8. Pawtucket (8)-Same owner since Season 9
Last Year 78-84
6 Playoff Apps (last season 24)
3 Division Titles (last season 24)

9. Hartford (13)-Same owner since Season 1
Last Year 63-99
16 Playoff Apps (last season 23)
9 Division Titles (last season 15)
4 NL Champs (last season 22)
3 WS Champs (last season 22)

10. Cincinnati (12)-New Owner
Last Year 83-79
13 Playoff Apps (last season 20)
8 Division Titles (last season 19)
3 NL Champs (last season 16)
2 WS Champs (last season 16)

11. Austin (10)-Same owner since Season 1
Last Year 72-90
7 Playoff Apps (last season 19)
3 Division Titles (last season 17)

12. Jackson (15)-Same owner since Season 25
Last Year 54-108
9 Playoff Apps (last season 20)
2 Division Titles (last season 13)
1 NL Champs (last season 13)

13. Colorado Springs (9)-Same owner since Season 19
Last Year 77-85
4 Playoff Apps (last season 23)
3 Division Titles (last season 23)

14.Trenton (11)-Same owner since Season 17
Last Year 71-91
11 Playoff Apps (last season 24)
5 Division Titles (last season 20)
1 NL Champs (last season 17)

15. Burlington (16)-Same owner since Season 19
Last Year 64-98
7 Playoff Apps (last season 17)
4 Division Titles (last season 16)
1 NL Champs (last season 15)

16. Texas (14)-Same owner since Season 24
Last Year 57-105
17 Playoff Apps (last season 21)
14 Division Titles (last season 21)
6 NL Champs (last season 14)
1 WS Champs (last season 5)

PreSeason AL Power Rankings

PreSeason (Season 26) AL Power Rankings  Last Year Ranking ( )

1. Vancouver (1)-Same owner since Season 2
Last Year 103-59 Div Title and AL Champ
24 Straight Playoff Apperances (24 overall)
21 Division Titles
9 AL Champs (Last: Season 25)
4 WS Champs (Last: Season 15)

2. Milwaukee (2)-Same owner since Season 12
Last Year 106-56 Div Title
6 Straight Playoff Apps (12 overall)
7 Division Titles

3. Norfolk (3)-Same owner since Season 21
Last Year 98-64 Div Title
5 Straight Playoff Apps (11 overall)
8 Division Titles
4 AL Champs (Last: Season 23)
2 WS Champs: (Last Season 23)

4. Boise (4)-New Owner
Last Year 100-62 Wild Card
2 Straight Playoff Apps (13 oveall)
3 Division Titles (Last: Season 24)
2 AL Champs (Last Season 7)

5. Columbus (7)-Same owner since Season 3
Last Year 88-74 Wild Card
7 Straight Playoff Apps (13 overall)
8 Division Titles (Last Season 24)

6. Charlotte (5)-Same owner since Season 23
Last Year 85-77 Div Title
2 Straight Playoff Apps (7 overall)
6 Division Titles

7. Richmond (6)-Same owner since Season 20
Last Year 85-77
9 Playoff Apps (last season 18)
9 Division Titles (last season 18)
2 AL champs (last season 12)
1 WS Champs (last season 12)

8. Syracuse (11)-Same owner since Season 19
Last Year 78-84
7 Playoff Apps (last season 18)
5 Division Titles (last season 18)

9. Louisville (14)-Same owner since Season 25
Last Year 72-90
12 Playoff Apps (Last season 23)
8 Division Titles (last season 20)
4 AL champs (last season 20)
3 WS champs (last season 17)

10. Monterrey (16)-Same owner since Season 25
Last Year 65-97
4 Playoff Apps (last season 20)
4 Division Titles (last season 20)

11. Dover (9)-Same owner since Season 16
Last Year 77-85
12 Playoff Apps (last season 19)
5 Division Titles (last season 17)
1 AL Champ (last season 19)
1 WS Champ (last season 17)

12. Fresno (13)-Same owner since Season 10-17, 19
Last Year 65-97
5 Playoff Apps (last season 21)
1 Division Titles (last season 20)

13. Phildelphia (10)-New owner
Last Year 72-90
4 Playoff Apps (last season 16)
2 Division Titles (last season 16)

14. San Fransico (8)-Same owner since Season 25
Last Year 79-83
1 Playoff Apps (last season 6)

15. Augusta (15)-New owner
Last Year 72-90
16 Playoff Apps (last season 20)
8 Division Titles (last seaon 12)
3 AL Champs (last season 18)
2 WS Champs (last season 8)

16. Little Rock (12)-Same owner since 19
Last Year 59-103
4 Playoff Apps (last season 22)
4 Division Titles (last season 22)

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

An Exceedingly Brief Discussion of the Hall of Fame Eligible Pitchers

So, there aren't many pitchers worth talking about.  The no-brain candidates have already been ushered in, and we're still waiting on some of the greatest pitchers to retire.  As a result, we don't have any standout candidates.  Still, 3 of the eligibles warrant some consideration.

Gregory Jefferies is 3rd among all pitchers in saves at 507.  When you consider that he's over 100 saves behind Jerome Patrick and has a pretty pedestrian ERA and WHIP, you realize he isn't really worth voting for.

David Larson had a pretty good career, and his ERA and WHIP are pretty impressive considering the era he pitched in.  Still, if Jerome Turner didn't make it, even having won a Cy Young and a Fireman of the Year, I'm not voting for a very good pitcher like Larson.

Danys Guzman has won a Cy Young.  He also anchored the staff for a couple of world champs.  His 3.71 ERA and 1.25 WHIP are really strong numbers, but he only won 197 games, and elbow and shoulder injuries diminished his effectiveness as he entered his mid-30s.  I might vote for him, but I don't think he'll get the votes this season, and his window of opportunity is pretty narrow, as guys like Leo Mackowiak and Hersh Knight are going to retire soon.

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Hall of Fame S26: Part II: Position Player Odds & Ends

Beyond the top tier of eligibles, there are some other interesting Hall cases to look at.  For reference, let's look at the scoring.  Without going into as much detail about my methodology as I have in past previews, I dole out points based on whether a player is in the career top 20 among eligibles in statistical categories and for player awards won.  A look at the position players and their scores:

1) A. Tarasco, 4296 pts
2) A. Cordero, 4057 pts
3) Happy Moore, 3383 pts
4) Felipe Rodriguez, 3104 pts
5) H. Polcovich, 3059 pts
6) R. Alicea, 2909 pts
7) S. Taylor, 2631 pts
8) E. Montanez, 2438 pts
9) D. Gwynn, 2151 pts
10) J. Moreno, 1982 pts
11) I. Santana, 1967 pts
12) Hugh Moore, 1959 pts

We've already looked at some of these guys, but I think a couple more bear discussing.

Fourth on our list is Felipe Rodriguez, who was a star at 2b and 3b before eventually moving out to left field late in his career.  Rodriguez has the most runs scored of any eligible at 1902, and the 5th most hits at 2594.  The 7-time All-Star might warrant consideration in the future, but there are a few guys in line ahead of him.

I'm always puzzled about Horace Polcovich.  How can a 2-time MVP with 550 career home runs not make the cut?  Of course, he really only had 8 strong seasons between his career's slow start and it's abrupt end.  And while he won a Gold Glove at first, he wasn't good enough to play any other position.  And perhaps most shocking, Polcovich had exactly 1 playoff AB--with Hartford in S18.  If the guy had actually carried a team to the playoffs, I might overlook his lack of longevity, but as much as I love an MVP winner, I have a hard time voting this guy in.

I like Alicea, Taylor and Montanez a lot.  Not quite Hall-worthy here I don't think, though note that Taylor stacks up very favorably when compared to Hall of Fame shortstop Rafael Cedeno.

As I've noted before, Don Gwynn deserves serious consideration given that he was a catcher.  Gerald Bradley and Pedro Arroyo will soon be retiring though, and those guys are a cut above at the position.

Finally, I hope Juan Moreno gets some votes.  Not many guys have hit over 400 HR and stolen over 300 bases, and Moreno's .406 OBP and .992 OPS are especially outstanding when you realize he didn't get his first full season in until S10.  Plus, he was a key ingredient for a couple of world champions, posting playoff OPSs over 1.000 for Texas in S12 and Hartford in S22.


























































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































Wednesday, December 19, 2012

The S26 Hall of Fame Candidates Preview

This year's Hall of Fame debate looks to be interesting more because of who isn't in the running than who is.  With Banjo Melhuse and Chili Olsen achieving election over the last two seasons, there might not be a clear Hall of Famer in this year's crop of candidates.

Alan O'Malley and Jerome Turner would be primed for strong runs at election, except they're no longer eligible until the WifS Veterans' Committee sneaks them in through the backdoor.

So, this year's nominee class might not have the kind of star power of seasons past.  It does, however, have the seeds of some interesting debates.  To wit...

1) Is Andres Tarasco a Hall of Famer?
Tarasco became the third player to rack up 3,000 hits.  He slugged 602 HRs and drove in 1859 runs in his career (both 2nd among the eligibles).  The 8-time All Star also won 6 Silver Sluggers, and he wasn't just another plodding 1b/DH type, putting in time at SS, CF, 2b and 3b over his career.  The argument against his election?  His OBP and SLG aren't terribly impressive.  His career numbers are largely a function of a long career with very good teams.  Still, those All-Star selections and Silver Sluggers were well deserved--at the positions he played, he was routinely the best in his league.  Alan O'Malley was probably a better candidate (after all, the guy did win an MVP award), but I don't have any qualms about electing Andres Tarasco (not to be confused with Tony Tarasco, who, while a dangerous hitter, was a plodding 1b/DH type who doesn't quite have the numbers to justify his election).

2) Well, then what about Alex Cordero?
Cordero has plenty of backers, who can point to his 9 All Star appearances and 643 career steals as evidence of his worthiness.  It would've been nice to see him tally some more hits and bump that batting average up just a smidge, but the guy was a dynamic player and was one of the best LF/1b for a decade.  He's a challenging guy to size up, because he played in an era of the power hitter, which makes his accomplishments look less impressive, but he also played in the era of easy base-stealing, thus artificially inflating his value.  I tend to like to see guys rewarded for All Star appearances and Silver Sluggers, despite the imperfections in how they're awarded (e.g. Carlos Johnson getting robbed of the All-Star nod in Season 14 based solely on his horrendous defense).  I might change my mind on which side of borderline Cordero sits, but for now I'll vote for him.

3) Wait, haven't you forgotten about Ivan Santana?  728 home runs, dude...
Ho ho--interesting you should bring up Santana.  According to my rating system, which as I've mentioned in the past is perhaps a bit heavily tilted towards award-winners, Santana isn't even a top 10 candidate.  And that's just among the hitters!  Well, this is a case where I take my own system with a grain of salt.  For whatever reason, Santana only made the All-Star team twice, and never won the MVP.  First base tends to be stacked with potent hitters, and Santana's BA and OBP were looked down upon by the selection engine.  Worse, his Austin teams were generally not contenders, and he tended to be passed over for guys who took their teams to the playoffs (see Season 14).  And those few times Austin did make it were forgettable--Santana's career playoff OPS in 97 AB?  .585

And yet, you cannot ignore the HR and RBI totals.  I think I have to vote for him.

4) Admit it, you're going to vote for Happy Moore, aren't you?
Yes I am (after all, I'll argue that getting Happy with the 28th pick in the first or second season we were allowed to set our own draft order was the greatest draft day steal in Morgan history)--and let me make the case for why you should, too.  Moore's 4 All Stars and 3 Silver Sluggers are respectable, even if they don't immediately scream Hall of Famer.  However, buoyed by an insane career slugging percentage of .616, Happy has the 3rd best OPS of the eligibles--exceeded only by Hugh Moore and Norm Freeman, each of whom had short careers and played in the liveliest days of the lively ball era.  And unlike Santana, Moore's playoff OPS was .998, as he was a driving force behind Hartford's championship runs in S9 and S11.

Additionally, Happy Moore produced two of the greatest hitting seasons of all-time.  He's among the very few players to post a season OPS over 1.250, and he did it twice.  In S8, Moore's first full season in the majors, he made his presence felt by hitting .394 (2nd highest of all-time behind Rusty Jones' .405 in S5), with a .460 OBP and .797 SLG.  He might have hit more than his 51 HR and 135 RBI, but Hartford tried to limit his playing time to conserve him for the post-season.  In S14, Moore took the MVP with a .377 BA, .447 OBP and .831 SLG (the latter the third best of all-time, behind only Doug Connelly's unreachable .919 in S2, and Carlos Johnson's .883 in S8).  With teammate Carlos Johnson on the decline, Moore put that Hartford club on his shoulders, bringing them all the way to the NLDS.

According to my ratings, Moore ranks 3rd behind Tarasco and Cordero, with 3383 points to Tarasco's 4296 and Cordero's 4057.

Stay tuned for Parts 2 & 3, in which I assess the other hitters who you can make intriguing cases for, and the pitchers, for whom no interesting case can be made.