Sunday, June 30, 2013

Season 28's Hall of Fame Ballot

With Leo Mackowiak's induction to the Hall of Fame last season, Morgan has now immortalized 21 players.  Who might join them in S28?  Well, before we get to our candidates, let's take a look at some of the players who've exhausted their eligibility, and won't be making the trip to E-Cooperstown.

Three players in particular stand out among the guys who won't be on the ballot anymore.  At the top of the list has to be Horace Polcovich.  A compelling case can be made that Polcovich's prime years were good enough on their own to justify induction.  In eight seasons (S10-S17), Polcovich played no fewer than 156 games every year, racked up seven straight seasons with 50+ home runs, including an absurd MVP year in S13 (89 HR, 205 RBI, 1.212 OPS, and a Gold Glove).

Unfortunately, in S17, Washington put Polcovich on irreversible waivers late in the year, hoping to dump the final 2 yrs/$10M he stood to make.  Polcovich was claimed by Hartford, where there was already a glut of 1B/LF-types.  He spent the next season as a fill-in player, and barely got on the field the season after, and then his career was over.  The two-time MVP winner hit 550 career HRs, but didn't reach 2000 hits or 1500 RBI, making it tough for him to overcome players with better career numbers or who stood out among the peers at their position.

Donn Gwynn was probably the NL's best catcher for a 6-season period.  Before Gerald Bradley and Pedro Arroyo came around, Gwynn might have started making real headway with HoF voters.  Still, while his numbers were really solid, you tended to think of him as a great catcher, but only a good player.  During an era which produced so many absurd offensive numbers, Gwynn's very nice stats just never created the kind of buzz that attracts voters to your cause.

Steve Taylor was one of the great shortstops of his generation, but much like Gwynn, he never posted the kind of eye-popping numbers that secure your place in game legend.  Considering he hit 501 HRs and 2364 hits, maybe we all slept on him.

Well, enough crying over those nobodies!

Q:  Who deserves induction this year?
A:  Maybe a lot of guys.  Unlike many years, there's no one guy with the kind of outlandish numbers or piles of awards that is certain to draw votes.  As a result, we might see three, even four guys voted in, or possibly the votes will get spread around and no one will reach the 17 they need.  Here's my case for the most deserving nominees:

1) A 6-time All Star and 2-time World Series winner, Hersh Knight looks like the cream of the crop this year.  Knight only had one season where he exceeded 200 IP, which suppressed his career win and strikeout totals.  But what he lacked in stamina and durability, he more than made up for with a tantalizing curveball and an uncanny ability to get hitters out.  

Among eligibles with over 1000 IP, Knight leads the field with a meager .300 OBP against and a .353 SLG % against.  He averaged just shy of 8 K/9, pretty good for his era, and 2.82 K/BB (Shane Hale and David Larson are the only eligible pitchers with a better ratio).

Plus, Knight rewarded those teams that limited his pitch counts in the regular season by amping up his performance in the playoffs, with a 2.92 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 157.1 playoff IP.  In S22, Knight caught fire for Hartford in the playoffs, reeling off 4 W in 6 starts and holding opponents to a .574 OPS and earning himself his 2nd World Series ring. 

2) I hear you, Morgan owners--your hatred of DHs makes them as likely to get HoF votes as deer ticks or hepatitis.  But consider the following:  The top five career leaders in Runs Created are Hall of Famer Carlos Johnson (2629.27), Hall of Famer Chili Olsen (2349.13), Hall of Famer Carl Cochrane (2090.65), Hall of Famer Bey Buckley (2032.64) and with 2027.39, Russell Cook.

Cook's hallmark was consistency.  His stellar S16 MVP season (226 hits, 59 HR, 180 RBI, a 1.186 OPS) was incredible, but he hit 50+ HR five different times and drove in 100+ nine times.  After falling to 25th pick in the S6 draft, Cook would go on to become a five-time Silver Slugger and All-Star.  Among the eligibles, he ranks 4th in OPS, 2nd in runs, and 1st in hits, home runs, and RBI.  He also acquitted himself well in the playoffs, posting a .915 OPS in 227 AB.  Coming close to election last season, this should be the season Cook gets the call.

3) Dennis Perez deserved more of a write-up last year.  He probably deserved more attention during his career.  Drafted 13th overall in S7, Perez exploded onto the big league stage as a 21 year old in S10.  Winning the starting job at second base coming out of spring training, Perez went on to hit .331/.407/.752 with 62 home runs and 150 runs driven in.  He won not only the Rookie of the Year, but bested Carlos Johnson for the MVP award.  Perez's Blood Sox won 110 games that year, besting Hartford in the division and losing a tough series against Atlanta for the pennant.

Perez moved to third base after a couple of years to take advantage of his strong arm and won a couple of Gold Gloves at the position.  A winner of 4 Silver Sluggers and 6 All-Star appearances, in S16 he won his only World Series ring.  The diminutive infielder from River Rouge, Michigan finished 2nd among eligibles in home runs (603), runs batted in (1673), and slugging percentage (.598).

4) You may have heard of Happy Moore.  I'm gonna keep talking this guy up until he's in the Hall.  He's 3rd among eligibles in HR and RBI, and 1st in SLG% and OPS.  He's posted the 3rd best OPS season ever in S14; he hit .394 in S8; he drove in 150+ runs 4 times; he's the only player to post 15+ RC/27 over a season twice; he won two World Series rings, crushing 8 HR in Hartford's 13 playoff games in S9.  Happy drew a good deal of interest last season, and this might be the year he gets the 17 votes he needs.

5) Another newcomer to the eligible list, we might not have to wait too long for Curtis Shumaker to garner the required vote totals.  Boise took the University of Richmond junior with the 2nd pick of the S10 draft and brought him up to the big leagues in S12.  The next year, Shumaker was an All-Star (his first of 8 appearances) and a Silver Slugger in LF (his first of 5--at SS, LF and RF).  His best season was in S17 with the Madison Lasers, when he won the MVP on the strength of a .337 average, 41 homers, 121 RBI, and 29 steals.  He finished his career with 349 HR and 385 SB, and is 6th among eligibles with 1546 runs scored.    

6) After those top 5, I start questioning whether I've got these last guys on the list in the right order.  Rafael Alicea was a 7-time All Star, 3-time Silver Slugger, and won 3 rings with steelforge's Huntington Hound Dawgs.  Alicea combined speed and a solid bat (396 HR, 427 SB) with versatility with the glove, logging time at SS, 3B, 2B and all around the outfield.  His racked up 2559 hits in his career (6th among eligibles), 1597 runs (3rd), and 1481 RBI (7th)

7) If in S6, owners had known that Gerald Bradley would be in the draft next season, there would have been a lot more tanking down the stretch.  Even facing the grind of catching year after year, Bradley never went on the DL, and is 11th among eligibles and 1st among retired catchers with 2354 hits.  Bradley had a nearly unparalleled talent for getting on base.  At .424, his OBP is the highest among eligibles who played 1500+ games.  He drew 100+ walks in a season 7 times and posted an OBP over .400 in 12 straight seasons.

Appearing with 8 All-Star teams, he also won 5 Silver Sluggers and in S15, won the MVP award.  That year he hit .330/.445/.489 and drove in 103 runs while catching an impressive pitching staff and leading the Florida Phoenix to 103 wins.

8) David Larson might well have surpassed Hersh Knight's accomplishments, but whereas Knight managed to avoid arm troubles until his twilight years, Larson had a couple of setbacks during his prime.  Both pitchers were drafted in S6, with Larson, the senior from UC-Riverside, taken at #3 and Knight drafted 4th fresh out of Elkhorn High in Nebraska.  Larson quickly made his major league debut with Las Vegas the following season, but despite a promising year in S9 when he went 16-6 and doing a very good job keeping guys of the bases and runs off the board, he had a hard time posting wins.

It wasn't until Larson was traded to Vancouver that he really had a breakthrough season.  Larson went 18-5 that year, with a 3.09 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  Unfortunately, Larson broke his forearm in the playoffs and Vancouver was upset by Huntington that year.  Larson came back the next year with a 20-win campaign and a world championship, but he struggled in S16 before a broken elbow shut him down for the year.  Larson was never quite the same, and soon lost his rotation spot.  He finished out with a 150-95 record and a 3.60 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.

9) In S7, Jester and jarazix got together on not one, but two blockbuster deals.  The first of those deals sent the talented young rightfielder Bonk Linton, a light-hitting SS named Hiram Whang and cash to Vancouver for the previous year's Cy Young winner Jerome Turner and SP Matty Mendez.  The second deal brought the Shrugging Atlases Boston's top prospect, Hersh Knight, in exchange for future Rookie of the Year and All-Star 2B Orlando Martin and a rookie pitcher who would become a Cy Young winner, 4-time All Star, and two-time world champ:  Danys Guzman.

Guzman retired with a record of 197-115, a 3.71 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.  Despite pitching fewer games than Knight or Larson, he finished with far more innings pitched.  Only elbow and shoulder issues later in his career prevented him from surpassing 200 wins.  He wasn't known as a guy who would strike out many hitters, but his career ERA and WHIP are only bested by Knight and Larson among the eligibles, and neither of those pitchers had a Cy Young campaign.   Guzman won the award in S10, on the strength of a 19-7 record with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP.  His career playoff record is 10-5 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 223.2 IP.

So, you've read my analysis.  My ballot:  Knight, Cook, Perez, Moore, and I think I have to go with Bradley with my fifth vote--Shumaker and Alicea are great and probably deserve to get in, but other than Pedro Arroyo, Gerald Bradley was the best catcher in Morgan's history.  His ability to get on base and hold down the catcher position (he's 3rd all-time in base stealers thrown out behind Arroyo and the under-rated backstop Kyle Forrest.) made him a unique talent.

Friday, June 7, 2013

Final Power Rankings for Season 27

AL Final Power Rankings for Season 27:  Preseason ( )

1. Norfolk   (2)
2. Vancouver  (1)
3. Milwaukee (3)
4. Dover (9)
5. Syracuse (6)
6. Richmond (5)
7. Little Rock (12)
8. Monterrey (8)
9. Boise (5)
10. Phildelphia (10)
11. Augusta (14)
12. Fresno (13)
13. Iowa (4)
14. Boston (16)
15. San Franisco (15)
16. Columbus (11)

Most Improved:  Dover and Little Rock +5
Least Improved: Iowa -9
Correct Pre Season Playoff Teams: Norfolk, Vancouver, Milwaukee, and Syracuse
Wrong Pre Season Playoff Teams: Iowa and Boise
Best Division: AL North
Playoff Seeds:
1. Syracuse (holds head to head 6-4 tiebreaker over Norfolk)
2. Norfolk
3. Richmond (holds head to head 8-2 tiebreaker over Vancouver)
4. Vancouver
5. Milwaukee
6. Dover (holds head to head 6-4 tiebreaker over Monterrey)

NL Final Power Rankings:  Pre-Season ( )

1.Kansas City (4)
2. Salt Lake City (2)
3. Colorado Springs (3)
4. Toronto (1)
5. Tampa (9)
6. Austin (6)
7. Burlington (12)
8. Chicago (10)
9. Scottsdale (5)
10. Arizona (7)
11. Cincinnati (15)
12. Hartford (11)
13. Texas (14)
14. Pawtucket (8)
15. St Louis (13)
16. San Juan (16)

Most Improved: Burlington +5
Least Improved: Pawtucket -6
Correct Pre Season Playoff Teams:  Kansas City, Salt Lake City, Colorado Springs, Toronto, Austin or Scottsdale (?)
Wrong Pre Season Playoff Teams: Austin or Scottsdale (?)
Best Division: NL West
Playoff Seeds:
1. Kansas City
2. Toronto
3. Salt Lake City
4. Tampa
5. Colorado Springs
6. Chicago/Burlington Winner or Austin or Scottsdale
(Austin tiebreaker over Scottsdale head to head 6-4)
(Austin tiebreaker over Chicago more runs-3rd tiebreaker)
(Burlington tiebreaker over Austin and Scottsdale head to head)
(Scottsdale tiebreker ove Chicago head to head 7-3)
(Burlington has best record between the other teams 17-12)

Friday, May 24, 2013

Power Rankings

AL Power Rankings:  Previous ( )  Preseason-Pre

1.Vancouver 71-50 (1) Pre-1
1st in West
All Stars:2
Current Playoff Seed: 3 (4)

2. Norfolk 77-44 (3) Pre-2
1st in East
All Stars: 3
Current Playoff Seed: 1 (2)

3. Syracuse 76-45 (6) Pre-6
1st in North
All-Stars: 3
Current Playoff Seed: 2  (3)

4. Dover 63-58 (4) Pre-9
3rd in North
All Stars; 4

5. Richmond 68-53 (2) Pre-7
1st in South
All Stars: 4
Current Playoff Seed: 4 (1)

6. Milwaukee 67-54 (7) Pre-3
2nd in North
all stars: 1
Current Playoff Seed; 5 (NR)

7. Phildelphia 65-56 (10) Pre-10
2nd in East
all stars-2
Current Playoff Seed: 6 (NR)

8. Little Rock 57-64 (8) Pre-12
4th in south
all stars-0

9. Boise 62-59 (9) Pre-5
2nd in west
all stars-2

10. Monterrey 62-59 (5) Pre-8
3rd in south
 all-stars-4

11. Iows 63-58 (11) Pre-4
2nd in south
 all stars-1

12. Augusta 60-61 (12) Pre-14
3rd in east
all stars-2

13. Fresno 56-65 (15) Pre-13
3rd in west
 all stars-1

14. Boston 40-81 (13) Pre-16
4th in east
all stars-0

15. San Franisco 40-81 (16) Pre-15
4th in west
all stars-0

16. Columbus 38-83 (14) Pre-11
4th in north
all stars-1

NL Power Rankings  Previous ( ) Preseason-Pre

1. Salt Lake 70-51 (2) Pre-2
1st in west
all stars-2
Current Playoff Seed: 3 (5)

2. Kansas City 74-47 (3) Pre-4
1st in east
all stars-3
Current Playoff Seed-2 (1)

3. Toronto 76-45 (1) Pre-1
1st in north
 all stars-4
Current Playoff Seed-1 (2)

4. Colorado Springs 67-54 (5) Pre-3
2nd in west
all stars-4
Current Playoff Seed: 6 (3)

5. Burlington 68-53 (6) Pre-12
2nd in north
all stars-5
Current Playoff Seed: 5 (6)

6. Tampa 63-58 (4) Pre-9
1st in south
all stars-4
 Current Playoff Seed: 4 (4)

7. Scottsdale 63-58 (8) Pre-5
3rd in west
all stars-2

8. Austin 61-60 (10) Pre-6
2nd in south
 all stars-1

9. Texas 56-65 (7) Pre-14
3rd in south
all stars-2

10. Hartford 56-65 (15) Pre-11
2nd in east
all stars-1

11. Chicago 59-62 (13) Pre-10
3rd in north
all stars-0

12. Cincinnati 58-63 (9) Pre-15
4th in north
all stars-0

13. Arizona 56-65 (12) Pre-7
4th in west
 all stars-1

14. St Louis 54-67 (11) Pre-13
4th in south
 all stars-1

15. Pawtucket 50-71 (14) Pre-8
3rd in east
all stars-0

16. San Juan 40-81 (16) Pre-16
4th in east
all stars-0

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Mid Season Power Rankings

AL Power Rankings:  Previous Ranking ( )  Preason Ranking-Pre

1. Vancouver 45-34 (1)  Pre-1
1st in West
AL leader: avg and obp
Top 5: runs, hr, sb, wins, era, and whip

2. Richmond 50-30 (5) Pre-7
1st in South
AL leader; wins
Top 5: run, hr, obp, era, whip, sv, and fielding

3. Norfolk 49-30 (4) Pre-2
1st in East
Top 5: avg, run, obp, wins, era and whip

4. Dover 46-34 (2) Pre-9
2nd in North
AL leader: runs, hr and fielding
Top 5: avg, obp, and wins

5. Monterrey 43-36 (7) Pre-8
2nd in South
AL leader; sb
Top 5: avg, runs, and sv

6. Syracuse 47-32 (3) Pre-6
1st in North
AL leader: era and whip
Top 5: wins, sv, and fielding

7. Milwaukee 43-37 (6) Pre-3
3rd in North
Top 5: whip

8. Little Rock 38-42 (11) Pre-12
4th in South
Top 5: hr and fielding

9. Boise 38-42 (9) Pre-5
2nd in West
Top 5; obp and sv

10. Phildelphia 41-38 (14) Pre-10
3rd in East
Top 5: sb

11. Iowa 38-41 (8) Pre-4
3rd in South
Top 5: fielding

12. Augusta 42-38 (10) Pre-14
2nd in East
AL leader: sv
Top 5: sb and era

13. Boston 25-54 (12) Pre-16
4th in East
Top 5: avg and hr

14. Columbus 26-54 (16) Pre-11
4th in North

15. Fresno 32-47 (15) Pre-13
3rd in West
Top 5: sb

16. San Franisco 30-50 (13) Pre-15
4th in West

Current Playoff Seeding:  Previous Seed ( )
1. Richmond (1)
2. Norfolk (4)
3. Syracuse (2)
4. Vancouver (3)
5. Dover (5)
6. Monterrey (NR)


NL Power Rankings:  Previous Ranking ( )  Preseason Ranking-Pre

1. Toronto 50-29 (1)  Pre-1
1st in North
NL leader: run, obp, era and sv
Top 5: avg and wins

2. Salt Lake 46-34 (3) Pre-2
2nd in West
NL leader:  avg
Top 5: run, hr, sv, obp, wins ,and whip

3. Kansas City 50-29 (2) Pre-4
1st in Est
NL leader; sb and wins
Top 5: obp, era, whip, sv, and fielding

4. Tampa 46-34 (7) Pre-9
1st in South
Top 5: avg, hr, obp, wins, era and whip

5. Colorado Springs 46-33 (4) Pre-3
1st in West
Top 5: hrs, sb, wins, era, whip, and fielding

6. Burlington 46-34 (5) Pre-12
2nd in North
NL leder- whip
Top 5: sb, era, and fielding

7. Texas 37-42 (16) pre-14
2nd in South
Top 5: hr and sb

8. Scottsdale 38-42 (10) Pre-5
3rd in West
NL leader: hr
Top 5: runs

9. Cincinnati 38-42 (9) Pre-15
3rd in North
NL leader: fielding

10. Austin 37-43 (6) Pre-6
4th in South
Top 5: hr

11. St Louis 37-42 (13) Pre-13
2nd in South
Top 5: sv and fielding

12. Arizona 34-46 (8) Pre-7
4th in West
Top 5: avg, run, and obp

13. Chicago 36-44 (11) Pre-10
4th in North

14. Pawtucket 36-43 (12) Pre-8
2nd in East
Top 5: sb

15. Hartford 33-47 (14) Pre-11
3rd in East
Top 5: avg

16. San Juan 29-50 (15) Pre-16
4th in East

Current Playoff Seedings:  Previous Seedings ( )
1. Kansas City (1)
2. Toronto (3)
3. Colorado Springs (6)
4. Tampa (4)
5. Salt Lake (2)
6. Burlington (5)

NL leader

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Power Rankings

AL Power Rankings:  Preseason Ranking ( )

1. Vancouver 25-16 (1)
1st in West
AL leader: avg and obp
Top 5: runs, hr, sb, wins, era, whip and sv

2. Dover 26-15 (9)
2nd in North
AL leader: runs and hr
Top 5: avg, obp, wins ,era and fielding

3. Syracuse 27-14 (6)
1st in North
AL leader: sv and fielding
Top 5: avg, wins, era, and whip

4. Norfolk 24-17 (2)
1st in East
Top 5: runs, sb, obp, wins, era and whip

5. Richmond 28-13 (7)
1st in Sourth
AL leader: wins, era and whip
Top 5: fielding

6. Milwaukee 23-18 (3)
3rd in North
Top 5; runs, hr and whip

7. Monterrey 22-19 (8)
2nd in South
AL leader: sb
Top 5: sv

8. Iowa 20-12 (4)
3rd in South
Top 5: runs and fielding

9. Boise 18-23 (5)
2nd in West
Top 5: avg and obp

10. Augusta 19-22 (14)
2nd in East
Top 5: sb and sv

11. Little Rock 17-24 (12)
4th in South
Top 5: hr and fielding

12. Boston 15-26 (16)
4th in East
Top 5: avg, hr and obp

13. San Franisco 18-23 (15)
2nd in West
Top 5: sv

14. Phildelphia 16-25 (10)
3rd in East
Top 5: sb

15. Fresno 18-23 (13)
2nd in West

16. Columbus 12-29 (11)
4th in North

Current Playoffs Seedings:  Previous Seed ( )
1. Richmond (NR)
2. Syracuse (6)
3. Vancouver (1)
4. Norfolk (2)
5. Dover (NR)
6. Milwaukee (3)

NL Power Rankings:  Previous Ranking ( )

1. Toronto 26-15 (1)
1st in North
NL leader: runs, era, and sv
Top 5: avr, hr, obp, wins, and whip

2. Kansas City 26-15 (4)
1st in East
NL leader: sb and wins
Top 5: avg, runs, obp, whip, and sv

3. Salt Lake 26-15 (2)
 1st in West
Top 5: avg, runs, sb, obp, wins, era, and whip

4. Colorado Springs 22-19 (3)
2nd in West
NL leader: fielding
Top 5: sb and wins

5. Burlington 23-18 (12)
 2nd in North
NL leader: whip
Top 5: wins, era, and sv

6. Austin 21-20 (6)
1st in South
Top 5: avg, hr, era, and whip

7. Tampa 21-20 (9)
1st in South

8. Arizona 19-22 (7)
4th in West
NL leader: avg and obp
Top 5: runs

9. Cincinnati 21-20 (15)
3rd in North
Top 5: sb, obp, and fielding

10. Scottsdale 20-21 (5)
3rd in West
NL leader: hr
Top 5: runs

11. Chicago 19-22 (10)
4th in North
Top 5: sv and fielding

12. Pawtucket 19-22 (8)
2nd in East
Top 5: hr and sb

13. St Louis 18-23 (13)
3rd in South
Top 5: era, sv, and fielding

14. Hartford 18-23 (11)
3rd in East

15. San Jose 14-27 (16)
4th in East
Top 5: fielding

16. Texas 15-26 (14)
4th in South
Top 5: hr

Current Playoff Seedings:  Preseason ( )
1. Kansas City (3)
2. Salt Lake (2)
3. Toronto (1)
4. Austin (4)/Tampa (NR)
5. Burlington (NR)
6. Colorado Springs (6)

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Pre Season Rankings:

AL Pre Season Rankings: Ranking last year ( )
Last Year's Results

1. Vancouver  (2)
World Series Champ
99-63 (25th Straight Playoff Apperance)

2. Norfolk (1)
AL Runner Up
110-52 (6th straight playoff apps)

3. Milwaukee (4)
Divison Title
97-65 (7th straight playoff apps)

4. Iowa (7)
85-77

5. Boise (5)
Wild Card
94-68 (3rd straight playoff apps)

6. Syracuse (8)
86-76

7. Richmond (3)
Division Title
98-64

8. Monterrey (11)
75-87

9. Dover (13)
73-89

10. Phildelphia (14)
65-97

11. Columbus (6)
Wild Card
87-75 (8th straight playoff apps)

12. Little Rock (12)
75-87

13. Fresno (9)
78-84

14. Augusta (16)
45-117

15. San Franisco (15)
63-99

16. Boston (10)
76-86

Playoff Predictions:
1. Vancouver
2. Norfolk
3. Milwaukee
4. Iowa
5. Boise
6. Syracuse

NL Pre Season Rankings:  Ranking Last Year ( )
Last Year's Results

1. Toronto (1)
World Series Runner-Up
96-66 (4th straight playoff apps)

2. Salt Lake City (2)
NL Runner Up
99-63

3. Colorado Springs (4)
Wild Card
93-69

4. Kansas City (9)
85-77

5. Scottsdale (5)
90-72

6. Austin (3)
Division Title
94-68

7. Arizona (8)
79-83

8. Pawtucket (7)
Division Title
93-69

9. Tampa (6)
Wild Card
91-71 (5th straight playoff apps)

10. Chicago (11)
77-85

11. Hartford (15)
58-104

12. Burlington (10)
79-83

13. St Louis (16)
62-100

14. Texas (14)
57-105

15. Cincinnati (12)
74-88

16. San Jose (13)
59-103

Playoff Predictions:
1. Toronto
2. Salt Lake City
3. Kansas City
4. Austin
5. Colorado Springs
6. Scottsdale

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Another Season, Another Hall of Fame Voting Guide

It's almost time for another season, and while the free agent pickings look pretty sparse there are a number of Hall of Fame candidates who warrant attention.

This season I took a hard look at my formulas and decided that two things needed tweaking.  First, the unreliability of award distribution (e.g. John Chen's relatively small number of All-Star selections) led me to devalue awards somewhat.  I still think awards are an somewhat useful indicator of performance relative to other players of their era, but I'm placing more weight on statistical measures.

The second change was intended to help better gauge the performance of more recent retirees.  In the case of rate stats (BA, OBP, SLG, ERA), I set playing time limits (1500 games for hitters, 1500 IP for the pitchers) that would clear out the noise created by guys who put up great rates in relatively few AB during the era of inflated hitting numbers.  In my opinion, it gives a truer measure of value for the guys who played lengthy careers.

Rather than give a full assessment of each player right now, I'll give you a quick rundown of the results of my analysis (note that points for position players and pitchers aren't quite equivalent):

Position players:
1) Russell Cook, DH (5190 points)
2) Dennis Perez, 3B (3604)
3) Happy Moore, 1B (3312)
4) Gerald Bradley, C (3190)
5) Esteban Montanez, LF (3084)
6) Rafael Alicea, SS/3B (2888)
7) Horace Polcovich, 1B (2868)
8) Steve Taylor, SS (2853)
9) Juan Moreno, RF (2508)
10) Stone Rivera, 2B (2219)

Pitchers:
1) Leo Mackowiak (4740 points)
2) Danys Guzman (3033)
3) Louie Alvarado (2592)
4) Rocky Duvall (2418)
5) David Larson (2184)
6) Virgil Quinn (2072)
7) Del Martinez (2013)
8) Ramon Ramirez (1989)
9) R. J. Bautista (1926)
10) Pedro Acosta (1903)

Shockingly, we'll have a pitcher on the ballot this year who should be assured of election.  Mackowiak's health and stamina were a bit of a hindrance, especially as he got older, but few were better at getting guys out.

I like those top 4 position players.  Cook was a hitting machine.  Even without a defensive position, I can't see how you keep him out.  Perez was the best third basemen of his era, and Gerald Bradley was an on-base machine fully deserving of being the first catcher inducted.  I've admitted my bias for Happy Moore before (you can go back to previous Hall columns), but his .998 OPS is the highest of any player with 1500+ games played who isn't already inducted.

So there are my votes:  Mackowiak, Cook, Perez, Bradley, and Happy Moore.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Final Power Rankings

AL Final Power Rankings:
Previous Rankings ( ) Preseason Ranking-Pre Last Year Ranking-LY  Wins +/- from Last Year

1. Norfolk 110-52 (1) Pre-3 LY-3 Wins- +12
1st in East (9th Division Title)
1st Seed (6th straight playoff appearance)
2nd Half: 58-25
1st Half: 52-27

2. Vancouver 99-63 (3) Pre-1 LY-1 Wins: -4
1st in West (22nd Div Title)
2nd Seed (25th straight playoff apps)
2nd half:50-33
1st half:49-30

3. Richmond 98-64 (4) Pre-7 LY-6 Wins: +13
1st in south (10th Div Title)
3rd Seed (10th playoff apps)
2nd half; 56-26
1st half: 42-38

4. Milwaukee 97-65 (5) Pre-2 LY-2 Wins: -9
1st in North (8th Div Title)
4th Seed (7th straight  playoff apps)
2nd Half: 48-32
!st half: 49-33

5.  Bosie 94-68 (2) Pre-4 LY-4 Wins: -6
2nd inWest
5th Seed (3rd straight playoff apps)
2nd half: 51-31
1st half: 43-37

6. Colubmus 87-75 (8) PRe-5 LY-7 Wins: -1
2nd in North
6th Seed (8th straight playoff apps)
2nd Half:39-43
1st half: 48-32

7. Charlotte 85-77 (6) Pre-6 LY-5 Wins: -
2nd in South
2nd half: 40-43
1st half: 45-34

8. Syracuse 86-76 (7) Pre-8 LY-11 Wins: +8
3rd in North
2nd half: 43-40
1st half: 43-36

9. Fresno 78-84 (12) Pre-12 LY-13 Wins: +13
3rd in West
2nd half: 45-38
1st half: 33-46

10. Louisville 76-86 (10) Pre-9 LY-14 Wins: +4
2nd in East
2nd half: 40-43
1st half: 36-43

11. Monterrey 75-87 (9) Pre-10 LY-16 Wins: +10
3rd in South
2nd half: 36-47
1st half:39-40

12. Little Rock 75-87 (11) Pre-16 LY-12 Wins: +16
3rd in South
2nd half: 34-48
1st half: 41-39

13. Dover 73-89 (14) Pre-11 LY-9 Wins: -4
4th in North
2ns half: 39-43
1st half: 34-46

14. Phildelphia 65-97 (13) Pre-13 LY-15 Wins: -7
3rd in East
2nd half: 34-51
1st half: 31-46

15. San Franisco 63-99 (15) Pre-14 LY-8 Wins: -15
4th in West
2nd half: 21-61
1st half: 42-38

16. Augusta 45-117 (16) Pre-15 LY-10 Wins: -27
4th in East
2nd half: 24-58
1st half: 21-59

NL Power Rankings:

1. Toronto 96-66 (1) Pre-3 LY-4 Wins: -4
1st in North (6th Div Title)
2nd Seed (4th straight playoff apps)
2nd half: 44-39
1st half: 52-27

2. Salt Lake City 99-63 (2) Pre-4 LY-7 Wins: +23
1st in West (1st Div Title)
1st Seed (2nd playoff apps)
2nd half: 53-29
1st half: 46-34

3. Austin 94-68 (5) Pre-11 LY-10 Wins: +22
1st in South (4th Div Title)
3rd Seed (8th playoff apps)
2nd half: 52-30
1st half: 42-38

4. Colorado Springs 93-69 (3) Pre-13 LY-9 Wins: +21
2nd in West
5th Seed (5th playoff apps)
2nd half: 46-37
1st half: 47-32

5. Scottsdale 90-72 (4) Pre-5 LY-5 Wins: +3
3rd in West
2nd half: 43-40
1st half: 47-32

6. Tampa 91-71 (6) Pre-6 LY-2 Wins: -14
2nd in South
6th Seed (5th straight playoff apps)
2nd half: 46-34
1st half: 45-37

7. Pawtucket 93-69 (7) Pre-8 LY-8 Wins: +15
1st in East (4th Div Title)
4th Seed (7th playoff apps)
2nd half: 50-33
1st half: 43-36

8. Arizona 79-83 (8) Pre-6 LY-1 Wins: -30
4th in West
2nd half: 37-45
1st half: 42-38

9. Kansas City 85-77 (9) Pre-7 LY-6 Wins: -
2nd in East
2nd half: 50-33
1st half; 35-44

10. Burlington 79-83 (10) Pre-15 LY-16 Wins: +15
2nd in North
2nd half: 40-42
1st half: 39-41

11. Chicago 77-85 (12) Pre-1 LY-3 Wins: -30
3rd in North
2nd half: 40-42
1st half: 37-43

12. Trenton 74-88 (11) PRe-14 LY-11 Wins: +3
4th in North
2nd half: 38-44
1st half: 36-44

13. Cincinnati 59-103 (15) Pre-10 LY-12 Wins; -24
3rd in East
2nd half: 32-51
1st half: 27-52

14. Texas 57-105 (13) Pre-16 LY-14 Wins; -
4th in South
2nd half: 35-45
1st half: 22-60

15. Hartford 58-104 (14) Pre-9 LY-13 Wins: -5
4th in East
2nd half: 26-56
1st half: 32-48

16. Jackson 62-100 (16) Pre-12 LY-15 Wins: +8
3rd in South
2nd half: 35-48
1st half: 27-52

Friday, February 15, 2013

NL Power Rankings

NL Power Rankings:  Previous Rankings ( ) Preseason Rankings-Pre

1. Toronto 75-45 (1) Pre-3
1st in North
Last 40 games: 23-18
NL leader: runs, hr, obp, wins and sv
Top 5: avg and whip

2. Salt Lake City 74-46 (2) Pre-4
1st in West
Last 40 games: 28-12
NL leader: avg and era
Top 5: runs, hr, obp, wins, and whip

3. Colorado Springs 69-51 (3) Pre-13
3rd in West
Last 40 games: 22-19
NL leader: whip and fielding
Top 5: runs, hr, sb, and era

4. Scottsdale 72-48 (4) Pre-5
2nd in West
Last 40 games: 25-16
Top 5: avg, obp, wins, era, and whip

5. Austin 71-49 (5) Pre-11
1st in South
Last 40 games: 29-11
Top 5: avg, runs,  obp, wins, and sv

6. Tampa 69-51 (8) Pre-6
2nd in South
Last 40 games: 26-14
Top 5: sb, era, and sv

7. Pawtucket 69-51 (10) Pre-8
1st in East
Last 40 games: 26-15
Top 5: sb, wins, and sv

8. Arizona 59-61 (6) Pre-6
4th in West
Last 40 games: 17-23
Top 5: runs and obp

9. Kansas City 57-63 (9) Pre-7
2nd in East
Last 40 games: 22-19
NL leader: sb
Top 5: whip

10. Burlington 61-59 (11) Pre-15
2nd in North
Last 40 games: 22-18
Top 5: era and fielding

11. Trenton 52-68 (12) Pre-14
3rd in North
Last 40 games: 16-24
Top 5: sb, sv, and fielding

12. Chicago 51-69 (7) Pre-1
4th in North
Last 40 games: 14-26
Top 5: hr and fielding

13. Texas 43-77 (14) Pre-16
3rd in South
Last 40 games: 17-24
Top 5: avg and hr

14. Hartford 45-75 (13) Pre-9
3rd in East
Last 40 games: 13-27

15. Cincinnati 40-80 (15) Pre-10
4th in East
Last 40 games: 13-28
Top 5: fielding

16. Jackson 43-77 (16) Pre-12
4th in South
Last 40 games: 16-25


Biggest Move Up:
Pawtucket +3

Biggest Move Down:
Chicago -5

Current Playoff Seedings:
1. Toronto (1)
2. Salt Lake City (6)
3. Austin (3)
4. Pawtucket (4)
5. Scottsdale (5)
6. Colorado Springs (2)
6. Tampa (NR)

AL Power Rankings

AL Power Rankings:  Previous Ranking ( )  Preseason Ranking-Pre

1. Norfolk 80-40 (1) Pre-3
1st in East
Last 40 games: 28-13
AL  leader: wins, era, and whip
Top 5: avg, runs, hr, obp, sv and fielding

2. Boise 71-49 (7) Pre-4
1st in West
Last 40 games: 28-12
AL leader: sv and fielding
Top 5: avg, runs, sb, obp, and wins

3. Vancouver 71-49 (2) Pre-1
1st in West
Last 40 games: 22-19
AL leader: avg and obp
Top 5: runs, sb, wins, era, whip, and fielding

4. Richmond 68-52 (6) Pre-7
1st in South
Last 40 games: 26-14
Top 5: avg, hr, obp, wins, era, whip, and fielding

5. Milwaukee 75-45 (5) Pre-2
1st in North
Last 40 games: 28-12
AL leader: hr
Top 5: wins, era, whip, and fielding

6. Charlotte 66-54 (3) Pre-6
2nd in South
Last 40 games: 21-20
AL leader: runs
Top 5: sb and sv

7. Syracuse 66-54 (8) Pre-8
2nd in North
Last 40 games: 23-18
Top 5: avg, runs, and obp

8. Columbus 64-56 (4) Pre-5
3rd in North
Last 40 games: 16-24
Top 5: era, whip, and sv

9. Monterrey 61-59 (12) Pre-10
3rd in South
Last 40 games: 22-19
Top 5: sb and sv

10. Louisville 57-63 (10) Pre-9
2nd in East
Last 40 games: 21-20
AL leader: sb

11. Little Rock 54-66 (9) Pre-16
4th in South
Last 40 games: 13-27
Top 5: hr

12. Fresno 58-62 (15) Pre-12
3rd in West
Last 40 games: 25-16

13. Phildelphia 47-73 (13) Pre-13
3rd in East
Last 40 games: 16-25

14. Dover 48-72 (14) Pre-11
4th in North
Last 40 games: 14-26

15. San Franisco 52-68 (11) Pre-14
4th in West
Last 40 games: 10-30
Top 5: hr

16. Augusta 32-88 (16) Pre-15
4th in East
Last 40 games: 11-29

Biggest Move Up:
Boise +5

Biggest Move Down:
Columbus -4
San Franisco -4

Current Playoff Seedings:
1.  Norfolk (1)
2. Milwaukee (5)
3. Boise (NR)
4. Richmond (NR)
5. Vancouver (2)
6. Syracuse (6)
6. Charlotte (4)

Monday, February 4, 2013

All Star Breakdown

All Star Breakdown:

AL:
1. Vancouver 56-35-4 All Stars (1 Starter)
2. Monterrey 46-45-4 All Stars (1 Starter)
3. Norfolk-61-30-3 All Stars (2 Starters)
4. Milwaukee 56-35-3 All Stars (2 Starters)
5. Columbus 54-37-3 All Stars
6. St Louis-56-45-2 All Stars (1 Starter)
7. Dover 36-55-2 All Stars (1 Starter)
8. Charlotte 53-38-2 All Stars
9. Boise 51-40-1 All Star (1 Starter)
10. Louisville 42-49 1 All Star (1 Starter)
11. Little Rock 46-45-1 All Star
12.Richmond 46-45-1 All Star
13.San Franisco 45-46-1 All Star
14. Fresno 40-51-1 All Star
15. Augusta 25-66-1 All Star

NL:
1. Toronto 58-33-5 All Stars (3 Starters)
2. Austin 52-39-4 All Stars (1 Starter)
3.Scottsdale 53-38-3 All Stars (1 Starter)
4. Pawutcket 51-40-3 All Stars (1 Starter)
5. Colorado Springs 54-37-3 All Stars
6. Tampa 50-41-2 All Stars (1 Starter)
7. Burlington 46-45-2 All Stars (1 Starter)
8. Arizona 48-43-2 All Stars
9. Chicago 40-51-2 All Stars
10.Trenton 40-51-1 All Star (1 Starter)
11. Salt Lake City 56-35-1 All Star
12. Kansas City 39-52-1 All Star

Thursday, January 31, 2013

NL Power Rankings

NL Power Rankings: Previous ( )  Preseason-Pre

1. Toronto 52-27 (1) Pre-3
1st in North
NL leader-avg, runs, obp, wins and sv
Top 5- hr and whip

2. Salt Lake City 46-34 (4) Pre-4
3rd in West
Top 5-avg, runs, hr, sb, wins, era, and whip

3. Colorado Springs 47-32 (2) Pre-13
1st in West
NL leader-era and whip
Top 5-hr, wins, and fielding

4. Scottsdale 47-32 (3) Pre-5
1st in West
Top 5- avg, runs, obp, wins, era, and whip

5. Austin 47-33 (11) Pre-11
1st in South
Top 5- avg, runs, obp, wins and sv

6. Arizona 42-38 (6) Pre-6
4th in West
Top 5- runs, hr, and obp

7. Chicago 37-43 (13) Pre-1
3rd in North
NL leader- hr and fielding
Top 5- whip

8. Tampa 43-37 (9) Pre-6
2nd in South
Top 5- sb, era, and sv

9. Kansas City 35-44 (8) Pre-7
2nd in East
NL leader-sb

10. Pawtucket 43-36 (5) Pre-8
1st in East
Top 5-sb and sv

11. Burlington 39-41 (7) Pre-15
2nd in North
Top 5-era and fielding

12. Trenton 36-44 (14) Pre-14
4th in North
Top 5- sb, sv, and fielding

13. Hartford 32-48 (10) Pre-9
3rd in East

14. Texas 26-53 (12) Pre-16
4th in South
Top 5-avg and obp

15. Cincinnati 27-52 (16) Pre-10
4th in East
Top 5- fielding

16. Jackson 27-52 (15) Pre-12
3rd in South

Biggest Move Up:
Austin +6
Chicago +6

Biggest Move Down:
Pawtucket -5

Current Playoff Seedings: Previous ( )
1. Toronto (2)
2. Colorado Springs (3)
3. Austin (6)
4. Pawtucket (1)
5. Scottsdale (5)
6. Salt Lake City (6)

AL Power Rankings

AL Power Rankings Previous Ranking -( )  Preseason Rankings- Pre

1. Norfolk 52-27 (1) Pre-3
1st in East
AL leader-wins, era, and whip
Top 5- runs, obp, sv, and fielding

2. Vancouver 49-30 (6) Pre-1
1st in West
AL leader-avg
Top 5- runs, obp, wins, era, and whip

3. Charlotte 45-34 (2) Pre-6
1st in South
AL leader-runs
Top 5-sb, wins, sv, and fielding

4. Columbus 48-32 (9) Pre-5
1st in North
AL leader-hr
Top 5-runs, wins, era, whip, and sv

5. Milwaukee 47-33 (3) Pre-2
2nd in North
Top 5- avg, hr, wins, era, whip, and fielding

6. Richmond 42-38 (4) Pre-7
2nd in South
AL leader-obp
Top 5- avg, hr, and fielding

7. Boise 43-37 (12) Pre-4
2nd in West
AL leader-sv and fielding
Top 5-sb and era

8. Syracuse 43-36 (5) Pre-8
3rd in North
Top 5-avg, obp, and whip

9. Little Rock 41-39 (8) Pre-16
3rd in South
Top 5- hr, sb, and obp

10. Louisville 36-43 (13) Pre-9
2nd in East
AL leader-sb

11. San Franisco 42-38 (7) Pre-14
3rd in West

12. Monterrey 39-40 (11) Pre-10
4th in South
Top 5-sb and sv

13. Phildelphia 31-48 (10) Pre-13
 3rd in East
Top 5-avg

14. Dover 34-46 (14) Pre-11
4th in North
Top 5-hr and runs

15. Fresno 33-46 (16) Pre-12
4th in West

16. Augusta 21-59 (15) Pre-15
4th in East

Biggest Move Up:
Boise +5
Columbus +5

Biggest Move Down:
San Franisco -4

Current Playoff Seeds: Previous ( )
1. Norfolk (1)
2. Vancouver (4)
3. Columbus (NR)
4. Charlotte (3)
5. Milwaukee (2)
6. Syracuse (NR)

Thursday, January 17, 2013

NL Power Rankings

NL Power Rankings  Previous Rankings ( )

1. Toronto 27-14 (3)
1st in North
NL leader: runs, obp, and sv
Top 5: avg, hr, wins, whip, and fielding

2. Colorado Springs 27-14 (13)
1st in West
NL leader: whip and fielding
Top 5: runs, wins, era, and sv

3. Scottsdale 26-15 (5)
2nd in West
NL leader: hr and era
Top 5: avg, runs, obp, wins, and whip

4. Salt Lake City 23-18 (4)
3rd in West
NL leader; avg
Top 5: runs, hr, sb, obp, era, and whip

5. Pawtucket 29-12 (8)
1st in East
NL leader: wins
Top 5: sb and sv

6. Arizona 21-20 (6)
4th in East
Top 5: hr

7. Burlington 20-21 (15)
2nd in East
Top 5: era, whip, and fielding

8. Kansas City 17-24 (7)
3rd in East
NL leader: sb
Top 5: obp

9. Tampa 23-18 (6)
1st in South
Top 5: sb and era

10. Hartford 19-22 (9)
2nd in East
Top 5: sv and fielding

11. Austin 23-18 (11)
1st in South
Top 5: avg and wins

12. Texas 15-26 (16)
4th in South
Top 5: avg, runs, and obp

13. Chicago 17-24 (1)
3rd in East
Top 5: hr and fielding

14. Trenton 17-24 (14)
3rd in East
Top 5: sb and sv

15. Jackson 17-24 (12)
3rd in South

16. Cincinnati 7-34 (10)
4th in East

Biggest Move Up:
Colorado Springs +11
Burlington +8
Biggest Move Down:
Chicago -12
Cincinnati -6

Current Playoff Seedings:
1.Pawtucket
2. Toronto
3. Colorado Springs
4. Tampa
5. Scottsdale
6. Salt Lake/Austin

AL Power Rankings

AL Power Rankings:  Previous Ranking ( )

1. Norfolk 30-11 (3)
1st in East
AL Leader: Avg, runs, hr, obp, and wins
Top 5: whip, era, and sv

2. Charlotte 24-17 (6)
1st in South
AL leader: fielding
Top 5: runs, sb, wins, and sv

3. Milwaukee 27-14 (2)
1st in North
AL leader: whip and era
Top 5: avg, hr, obp, wins, and fielding

4. Richmond 24-17 (7)
1st in South
Top 5: hr, obp, wins, sv and fielding

5. Syracuse 21-20 (8)
2nd in North
Top 5: avg, runs, obp, whip, and fielding

6. Vancouver 24-17 (1)
1st in West
Top 5: avg, sb, obp, wins, whip and era

7. San Franisco 22-19 (14)
2nd in West
Top 5: runs, hr, and era

8. Little Rock 22-19 (16)
3rd in South
Top 5: sb, whip, and sv

9. Columbus 20-21 (5)
3rd in North
Top 5; hr, era, and fielding

10. Phildelphia 17-24 (13)
2nd in East
Top 5: avg and runs

11. Monterrey 19-22 (10)
4th in South
Top 5: sb

12. Boise 21-20 (4)
3rd in West
AL leader: sv

13. Louisville 15-26 (9)
3rd in East
AL leader: sb

14. Dover 16-25 (11)
4th in North

15. Augusta 11-30 (15)
4th in East

16. Fresno 15-26 (12)
4th in West

Biggest Move Up:
Litte Rock +8
San Franisco +7

Biggest Move Down:
Boise -8
Vancouver  -5

Current Playoff Seedings
1. Norfolk
2. Milwaukee
3. Charlotte
4. Vancouver
5. Richmond
6. San Franisco/Little Rock