- Carlos Johnson
- Chili Olsen
- Clint Hutton
- Jerome Patrick
- Jerome Turner
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Epilogue: My Votes
This year I really think we have at least 4 guys whose induction should be a certainty, and I will be voting for 5 players.
Friday, February 10, 2012
Season 23 Hall of Fame preview: Part 3
The Pitchers
Morgan World was dominated by offense for the first 15 or so years of its existence. As a result, only Earl Wilkerson and Vitas Sobkowiak have made the Hall thus far. Those two were standout stars for strong Vancouver teams, which helped them put up the kind of numbers and awards that made them complete locks for induction.
In part because Banjo Melhuse hasn't expressed much interest in retiring, and many of the best arms in league history still have some years ahead of them, there haven't been a whole lot of serious candidates for voters to consider.
Closing In
There's one pitcher who should walk right into the Hall. Jerome Patrick is a 6-time Fireman of the Year, closed for 3 World Series champs...the guy is our Mariano Rivera. 630 saves--he should be a lock [Note: I had to re-write most of this article when the internet ate it, so I figured listing out all of Patrick's accomplishments were unnecessary. Though, note that I think this guy went to a record twelve All-Star Games!]
What Else Is Left?
I think this is the year to throw votes behind Jerome Turner. I know, his totals aren't super-impressive, and that no one could really decide whether he was a starter or a closer. Still, let's start building his case by comparing Turner's six years as a dedicated starter to the six best years (by WHIP) of Virgil Quinn, the wins leader among retirees and Morgan's version of Jack Morris--a very good pitcher who won games but doesn't have the kind of impressive rate stats to make a case for anything more than borderline HOF consideration:
Turner: avg. W-L = 13.5-7 (.659 W%), 3.78 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.93 K/9
Quinn: avg. W-L = 15.5-8.3 (.651 W%), 4.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6.10 K/9
So, even cherry-picking Quinn's best years as a starter, Turner comes out ahead. And while Turner was never a closer on the same level as Patrick, he was successful in 83.8% of his save opportunities, which is pretty solid. The guy went to 7 All-Star games and won a Cy Young, a Fireman of the Year, a Gold Glove and a World Series ring. And his strikeout rate, FIP, ERA, and WHIP are all near the top all-time.
I'll admit to a soft spot for Turner. The guy just always seemed to beat me when we faced off, his teams won a lot of games and he excelled in every role his teams plugged him into. With the emergence of a lot of excellent pitchers in Morgan, maybe Turner's accomplishments just don't measure up, but I think my 5th vote probably goes to him.
Morgan World was dominated by offense for the first 15 or so years of its existence. As a result, only Earl Wilkerson and Vitas Sobkowiak have made the Hall thus far. Those two were standout stars for strong Vancouver teams, which helped them put up the kind of numbers and awards that made them complete locks for induction.
In part because Banjo Melhuse hasn't expressed much interest in retiring, and many of the best arms in league history still have some years ahead of them, there haven't been a whole lot of serious candidates for voters to consider.
Closing In
There's one pitcher who should walk right into the Hall. Jerome Patrick is a 6-time Fireman of the Year, closed for 3 World Series champs...the guy is our Mariano Rivera. 630 saves--he should be a lock [Note: I had to re-write most of this article when the internet ate it, so I figured listing out all of Patrick's accomplishments were unnecessary. Though, note that I think this guy went to a record twelve All-Star Games!]
What Else Is Left?
I think this is the year to throw votes behind Jerome Turner. I know, his totals aren't super-impressive, and that no one could really decide whether he was a starter or a closer. Still, let's start building his case by comparing Turner's six years as a dedicated starter to the six best years (by WHIP) of Virgil Quinn, the wins leader among retirees and Morgan's version of Jack Morris--a very good pitcher who won games but doesn't have the kind of impressive rate stats to make a case for anything more than borderline HOF consideration:
Turner: avg. W-L = 13.5-7 (.659 W%), 3.78 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.93 K/9
Quinn: avg. W-L = 15.5-8.3 (.651 W%), 4.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6.10 K/9
So, even cherry-picking Quinn's best years as a starter, Turner comes out ahead. And while Turner was never a closer on the same level as Patrick, he was successful in 83.8% of his save opportunities, which is pretty solid. The guy went to 7 All-Star games and won a Cy Young, a Fireman of the Year, a Gold Glove and a World Series ring. And his strikeout rate, FIP, ERA, and WHIP are all near the top all-time.
I'll admit to a soft spot for Turner. The guy just always seemed to beat me when we faced off, his teams won a lot of games and he excelled in every role his teams plugged him into. With the emergence of a lot of excellent pitchers in Morgan, maybe Turner's accomplishments just don't measure up, but I think my 5th vote probably goes to him.
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Season 23 Hall of Fame preview: Part 2
Underrating the Hit King
While I think my system gives a pretty good rough evaluation of Hall-worthiness, I must admit that the points it gives to MVP winners are quite generous. The upside is that guys are rewarded for being acknowledged as the best position player in a given year. The downside is that guys who had amazing years and amazing careers but never put up big power numbers often were ignored by the sim nominators, and miss out. Such is the case with Chili Olsen, who was a 9-time All-Star and a 5-time Silver Slugger. And then there's his most noteworthy accomplishment--racking up 3,473 hits, more than anyone in Morgan history. The 12th pick in Season 1's draft far surpassed any other member of that class, yet he never won a title.
The takeaway? Olsen may have finished well behind Johnson and Hutton according to my numbers, but he's still among the 3 no-brainer nominees.
Or Should It Have Been 4 No-Brainers?
Eric Thomas actually finishes ahead of Olsen in points. Thomas managed to win 3 rings playing for superior teams, and his steroid-era-fueled OBP and SLG% would put him just ahead if he were still eligible. The big knock on Thomas was that he was a career DH. In my opinion, the anti-DH bias is a little silly. If he'd played barely passable 1B for an NL team, would he suddenly have been a HOF lock? Thomas always felt like a guy who was going to be a borderline case, but my gut still says the guy should have made it.
Speaking Of Borderline
Two guys make a compelling case that they might deserve your votes. Alex Cordero The LF/1B posted 2,474 hits, scored 1,783 runs, and swiped 643 bases--one of five HOF candidates with over 600 steals. Cordero backers can also point to his pair of championship rings, 7 All-Star appearances, and 3 Gold Gloves at 1B.
Alan O'Malley has seen his share of support in past votes. It seems like every year, O'Malley looks like the 4th or 5th or 6th best guy on the ballot. Note that O'Malley is listed as a DH on the ballot, but actually played almost exclusively at 2B. He won an MVP award and was a familiar face on the awards page. His career stat lines aren't bad, but they don't quite make him a top tier candidate.
Both of these guys warrant consideration, but I'm not sure there are enough votes out there to send more than three hitters to the Hall this year. I'm not certain about this, but O'Malley might be running out of chances pretty soon.
At Least People Will Recognize Them At Card Shows
The guys on the outside looking in? Start with 2-time MVP Horace Polcovich, whose prime was just too short, and whose career went off the tracks when I grabbed him off of waivers and then sent him down to the minors as part of a youth movement in Hartford.
Steve Taylor was a fine player, and benefits from having played a lot of games--including several All-Star games--at SS. Maybe next year he'll have a shot at building some buzz around his candidacy. Same could be said about Esteban Montanez.
Donn Gwynn could make a compelling case for the HOF because he was the best catcher in the game for a few years and put up decent numbers over his career. I was thinking of endorsing him, until I realized that we're just a few years away from the retirements of Gerald Bradley and Pedro Arroyo, who are clearly the greatest catchers Morgan has produced, and are far more deserving of induction.
While I think my system gives a pretty good rough evaluation of Hall-worthiness, I must admit that the points it gives to MVP winners are quite generous. The upside is that guys are rewarded for being acknowledged as the best position player in a given year. The downside is that guys who had amazing years and amazing careers but never put up big power numbers often were ignored by the sim nominators, and miss out. Such is the case with Chili Olsen, who was a 9-time All-Star and a 5-time Silver Slugger. And then there's his most noteworthy accomplishment--racking up 3,473 hits, more than anyone in Morgan history. The 12th pick in Season 1's draft far surpassed any other member of that class, yet he never won a title.
The takeaway? Olsen may have finished well behind Johnson and Hutton according to my numbers, but he's still among the 3 no-brainer nominees.
Or Should It Have Been 4 No-Brainers?
Eric Thomas actually finishes ahead of Olsen in points. Thomas managed to win 3 rings playing for superior teams, and his steroid-era-fueled OBP and SLG% would put him just ahead if he were still eligible. The big knock on Thomas was that he was a career DH. In my opinion, the anti-DH bias is a little silly. If he'd played barely passable 1B for an NL team, would he suddenly have been a HOF lock? Thomas always felt like a guy who was going to be a borderline case, but my gut still says the guy should have made it.
Speaking Of Borderline
Two guys make a compelling case that they might deserve your votes. Alex Cordero The LF/1B posted 2,474 hits, scored 1,783 runs, and swiped 643 bases--one of five HOF candidates with over 600 steals. Cordero backers can also point to his pair of championship rings, 7 All-Star appearances, and 3 Gold Gloves at 1B.
Alan O'Malley has seen his share of support in past votes. It seems like every year, O'Malley looks like the 4th or 5th or 6th best guy on the ballot. Note that O'Malley is listed as a DH on the ballot, but actually played almost exclusively at 2B. He won an MVP award and was a familiar face on the awards page. His career stat lines aren't bad, but they don't quite make him a top tier candidate.
Both of these guys warrant consideration, but I'm not sure there are enough votes out there to send more than three hitters to the Hall this year. I'm not certain about this, but O'Malley might be running out of chances pretty soon.
At Least People Will Recognize Them At Card Shows
The guys on the outside looking in? Start with 2-time MVP Horace Polcovich, whose prime was just too short, and whose career went off the tracks when I grabbed him off of waivers and then sent him down to the minors as part of a youth movement in Hartford.
Steve Taylor was a fine player, and benefits from having played a lot of games--including several All-Star games--at SS. Maybe next year he'll have a shot at building some buzz around his candidacy. Same could be said about Esteban Montanez.
Donn Gwynn could make a compelling case for the HOF because he was the best catcher in the game for a few years and put up decent numbers over his career. I was thinking of endorsing him, until I realized that we're just a few years away from the retirements of Gerald Bradley and Pedro Arroyo, who are clearly the greatest catchers Morgan has produced, and are far more deserving of induction.
Season 23 Hall of Fame preview: Part 1
It's been a little while since I've come out with one of these posts dictating who you should vote for, so it seemed about time for another lesson. And frankly, after Derrick Flynn and Tim Durbin get voted in in Season 21, yet 5-time MVP Clint Hutton can't get the votes last year, you guys need my help.
First, let's have a moment of silence for Eric Thomas, whose Hall of Fame eligibility is all used up. Until they code a veterans' committee who can sneak him in the back door, anyway. More on Thomas later...
One more thing--unlike years past, I didn't obsessively scan through every player who rated in the top 20 among retirees in some stat category. Based on the candidates up for consideration, I felt ok if I missed out on some guy who flew under the radar and could make a case that he'd be worth voting for if you had 8 votes instead of 5. Also note that when I look at a player's career ranking in any statistical category, I'm always looking at his ranking among retirees who aren't already in the Hall of Fame. Just makes life so much easier, and it still feels like a reliable measure of how a player's career numbers should be valued.
The Candidates, please:
The Greatest Hitter Who Ever Simmed
Forgive me my bias. Carlos Johnson is the best hitter Morgan World has produced. Yes, he played much of his career in a juiced-up offensive era, and his home games were in Hartford's band box. He was also a complete mess in left field (his 84 errors and 88 bad plays are records for the position).
But he was the most intimidating, the most hyped, and the most decorated offensive player ever. Johnson has the all time records for runs, homers, RBI, and OPS. He's second to Chili Olsen in hits with 3000. Second to Rusty Jones in OBP. He's second in intentional walks. 5 MVPs, a pair of World Series rings, a ROY, a truckload of Silver Sluggers, All Star appearances, All Star MVPs, Home Run Derby wins...
For his first ten seasons in Morgan, he was dominant, but he remained a tough out well into his mid-to-late-30s. Season 15, when Johnson was 34, seems to be where HBD's steroid era came to an end. Even so, at an age where most hitters are looking for employment, Johnson was still getting on base and piling up records.
The Injustice
People can be forgiven for forgetting how good Clint Hutton was. Unlike Johnson, he never got a crack at a championship, and his career was pretty much done after turning 35. But while his counting numbers don't immediately scream Hall of Fame, this guy was intentionally walked more than any other player in Morgan's history. His 9.77 RC/27 ranks 5th all-time. He won the MVP 5 times. He went to 8 All-Star games and won 8 Silver Sluggers. Unlike Johnson, he was an above-average corner outfielder, and he ranks 20th among retirees with 283 stolen bases (vs. Johnson's 0). He should have been a unanimous first ballot selection. Shame on us.
First, let's have a moment of silence for Eric Thomas, whose Hall of Fame eligibility is all used up. Until they code a veterans' committee who can sneak him in the back door, anyway. More on Thomas later...
One more thing--unlike years past, I didn't obsessively scan through every player who rated in the top 20 among retirees in some stat category. Based on the candidates up for consideration, I felt ok if I missed out on some guy who flew under the radar and could make a case that he'd be worth voting for if you had 8 votes instead of 5. Also note that when I look at a player's career ranking in any statistical category, I'm always looking at his ranking among retirees who aren't already in the Hall of Fame. Just makes life so much easier, and it still feels like a reliable measure of how a player's career numbers should be valued.
The Candidates, please:
The Greatest Hitter Who Ever Simmed
Forgive me my bias. Carlos Johnson is the best hitter Morgan World has produced. Yes, he played much of his career in a juiced-up offensive era, and his home games were in Hartford's band box. He was also a complete mess in left field (his 84 errors and 88 bad plays are records for the position).
But he was the most intimidating, the most hyped, and the most decorated offensive player ever. Johnson has the all time records for runs, homers, RBI, and OPS. He's second to Chili Olsen in hits with 3000. Second to Rusty Jones in OBP. He's second in intentional walks. 5 MVPs, a pair of World Series rings, a ROY, a truckload of Silver Sluggers, All Star appearances, All Star MVPs, Home Run Derby wins...
For his first ten seasons in Morgan, he was dominant, but he remained a tough out well into his mid-to-late-30s. Season 15, when Johnson was 34, seems to be where HBD's steroid era came to an end. Even so, at an age where most hitters are looking for employment, Johnson was still getting on base and piling up records.
The Injustice
People can be forgiven for forgetting how good Clint Hutton was. Unlike Johnson, he never got a crack at a championship, and his career was pretty much done after turning 35. But while his counting numbers don't immediately scream Hall of Fame, this guy was intentionally walked more than any other player in Morgan's history. His 9.77 RC/27 ranks 5th all-time. He won the MVP 5 times. He went to 8 All-Star games and won 8 Silver Sluggers. Unlike Johnson, he was an above-average corner outfielder, and he ranks 20th among retirees with 283 stolen bases (vs. Johnson's 0). He should have been a unanimous first ballot selection. Shame on us.
Friday, April 22, 2011
S20 Hall of Fame Preview: The Pitchers
On to the pitchers. First, note that there's a slight difference in how pitchers are scored due to the reduced value of a Gold Glove for your pitchers. I'm also a little less confident in my choice of categories for rating pitching, as there's probably a little more overlap when I use both K and K/9 and ERA, WHIP and FIP (the most conveniently available defense-independent (sort of) pitching stat). Still I think the results are reasonably valid.
Just Finished Engraving The Plaque
Vitas Sobkowiak won 4 Cy Youngs. In truth though, we should be calling them Vitas Sobkowiak awards, because this guy set the standard. 302 wins and 10 All-Star appearances for the big righthander leave everyone else in the dust (except for Banjo Melhuse). (6889 pts)
The #2 man among pitchers is as far ahead of the rest of the field as Vitas is ahead of him. Jerome Turner was Morgan's answer to John Smoltz and Dennis Eckersley. The Cy Young and Fireman of the Year winner made 7 All-Star teams, and ranks #1 among eligibles with 1500+ IP with 7.91 K/9. His 3.98 FIP is the second best among the eligibles (more on that later). (4176 pts)
No one else is really deserving of much consideration, but the analysis did turn up some interesting results. Start with #3, B.C. Sierra. Sierra will never get real consideration because he didn't get a chance to rack up the career totals necessary, but remarkably, the guy is #2 in winning percentage, and #1 in FIP at 3.95. Sobkowiak is 4th (4.06) after Sierra, Turner and Robin Sullivan. A Cy Young and 5 All-Star bids over a 10 year career? Pretty impressive run.
Mike Andrews, Joel Coleman, Pedro Acosta, and Ramon Ramirez are the next best of the not good enough.
As for my ballot, I'm voting for Sobkowiak, Goya, Thomas, O'Malley, and Durbin.
Just Finished Engraving The Plaque
Vitas Sobkowiak won 4 Cy Youngs. In truth though, we should be calling them Vitas Sobkowiak awards, because this guy set the standard. 302 wins and 10 All-Star appearances for the big righthander leave everyone else in the dust (except for Banjo Melhuse). (6889 pts)
The #2 man among pitchers is as far ahead of the rest of the field as Vitas is ahead of him. Jerome Turner was Morgan's answer to John Smoltz and Dennis Eckersley. The Cy Young and Fireman of the Year winner made 7 All-Star teams, and ranks #1 among eligibles with 1500+ IP with 7.91 K/9. His 3.98 FIP is the second best among the eligibles (more on that later). (4176 pts)
No one else is really deserving of much consideration, but the analysis did turn up some interesting results. Start with #3, B.C. Sierra. Sierra will never get real consideration because he didn't get a chance to rack up the career totals necessary, but remarkably, the guy is #2 in winning percentage, and #1 in FIP at 3.95. Sobkowiak is 4th (4.06) after Sierra, Turner and Robin Sullivan. A Cy Young and 5 All-Star bids over a 10 year career? Pretty impressive run.
Mike Andrews, Joel Coleman, Pedro Acosta, and Ramon Ramirez are the next best of the not good enough.
As for my ballot, I'm voting for Sobkowiak, Goya, Thomas, O'Malley, and Durbin.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
S20 Hall of Fame Preview: The Position Players
Voters, campaign season is just about upon us. Last year Carl Cochrane and Rafael Cedeno had their simulated dreams become reality when they were welcomed into the Hall of Fame. Who's going to have the votes this year? Let's start with a look at the position players:
The Lock
Vladimir Goya isn't just the greatest defensive centerfielder of all time. He's the greatest to play the position, period. 10 All-Star appearances, 8 Gold Gloves, 6 Silver Sluggers. Vlady ranks 3rd among HOF eligibles in runs scored, 4th in hits, and 2nd in stolen bases. Add in all those highlight reel plays he made in center, and Goya would probably be the most exciting player in the game. MVP voters slept on Goya during his career. HOF voters shouldn't repeat that mistake. (5383 points)
The Contenders
Yes, Eric Thomas was a career DH, and that's the kiss of death to some voters. But the guy could rake. 6 All-Star games, 3 World Series rings, 8 Silver Sluggers. Only Hugh Moore has a higher career OPS among the eligibles. In that group he's also 4th in runs, 4th in homers, 5th in RBI, 4th in OBP, and 3rd in slugging. He is the best pure hitter who isn't either still playing or already enshrined. (4927 points)
I'll admit it--I was surprised when I worked out the numbers and found out just how good Alan O'Malley was. In fact, he was the best second baseman to play the game. A 7-time All Star and Silver Slugger, O'Malley was the S9 AL MVP. His .320 lifetime average places him 12th among eligibles, and he leads the group in runs scored. If his home run totals weren't eye-popping, his 2654 hits, 1376 RBI and 432 SB give him a strong case. Note that among eligibles, only Goya, O'Malley and Izzy Devereaux finished their careers with at least 300 HRs and 300 SB. (4515 points)
Get Back To Me Next Year
686 home runs is a lot. So it may be controversial when I list Tim Durbin as the 4th most qualified position player among potential nominees. I'll admit, it's a little crazy. I'm probably only bumping him this far down the list because he had only 5 All-Star appearances and only 6 Silver Sluggers (at CF and 2b, no less). Still, I'm not going to monkey with the formula, especially because I can't quite get past the fact that while Goya, Thomas and O'Malley posted career OBPs of .395, .428, and .394 respectively, Durbin finished with a very ordinary .353. I'll probably still vote for him, if not this year than certainly a year or two down the road, but I'm not sure I'm ready quite yet. (3868 points)
Might Need To Talk To The Veterans' Committee
Derrick Flynn had the kind of longevity that allows you to put up 2775 hits, 541 homers, 1692 runs, and 1911 RBI. But beyond those counting stats, he looks like a great player, rather than a Hall of Famer. His .301 average is pretty good, but neither it nor his .366 OBP, .559 SLG, or .925 OPS are in the top 20 among eligibles. 5 All-Star appearances and 2 Silver Sluggers also aren't enough to compete with some of the other illustrious careers being scrutinized here. (2885 points)
Meanwhile, Tim Smith is one of only 5 eligibles with an OPS of 1.000 or better. He's made All-Star teams and won Silver Sluggers, a Gold Glove and a 2 championship rings. Smith's problem is that his career got a late start, and he just didn't have a chance to reach the milestones needed to put forth a serious case for induction. (2732 points)
Honorable Mention: Ben Musial, Al Pena, Benj Clark, and Hugh Moore
Points are awarded based on ranking among eligible players in statistical categories (top 20 in each category get points = (21-ranking)^2), and for awards, All Star appearances, and other notable accomplishments.
The Lock
Vladimir Goya isn't just the greatest defensive centerfielder of all time. He's the greatest to play the position, period. 10 All-Star appearances, 8 Gold Gloves, 6 Silver Sluggers. Vlady ranks 3rd among HOF eligibles in runs scored, 4th in hits, and 2nd in stolen bases. Add in all those highlight reel plays he made in center, and Goya would probably be the most exciting player in the game. MVP voters slept on Goya during his career. HOF voters shouldn't repeat that mistake. (5383 points)
The Contenders
Yes, Eric Thomas was a career DH, and that's the kiss of death to some voters. But the guy could rake. 6 All-Star games, 3 World Series rings, 8 Silver Sluggers. Only Hugh Moore has a higher career OPS among the eligibles. In that group he's also 4th in runs, 4th in homers, 5th in RBI, 4th in OBP, and 3rd in slugging. He is the best pure hitter who isn't either still playing or already enshrined. (4927 points)
I'll admit it--I was surprised when I worked out the numbers and found out just how good Alan O'Malley was. In fact, he was the best second baseman to play the game. A 7-time All Star and Silver Slugger, O'Malley was the S9 AL MVP. His .320 lifetime average places him 12th among eligibles, and he leads the group in runs scored. If his home run totals weren't eye-popping, his 2654 hits, 1376 RBI and 432 SB give him a strong case. Note that among eligibles, only Goya, O'Malley and Izzy Devereaux finished their careers with at least 300 HRs and 300 SB. (4515 points)
Get Back To Me Next Year
686 home runs is a lot. So it may be controversial when I list Tim Durbin as the 4th most qualified position player among potential nominees. I'll admit, it's a little crazy. I'm probably only bumping him this far down the list because he had only 5 All-Star appearances and only 6 Silver Sluggers (at CF and 2b, no less). Still, I'm not going to monkey with the formula, especially because I can't quite get past the fact that while Goya, Thomas and O'Malley posted career OBPs of .395, .428, and .394 respectively, Durbin finished with a very ordinary .353. I'll probably still vote for him, if not this year than certainly a year or two down the road, but I'm not sure I'm ready quite yet. (3868 points)
Might Need To Talk To The Veterans' Committee
Derrick Flynn had the kind of longevity that allows you to put up 2775 hits, 541 homers, 1692 runs, and 1911 RBI. But beyond those counting stats, he looks like a great player, rather than a Hall of Famer. His .301 average is pretty good, but neither it nor his .366 OBP, .559 SLG, or .925 OPS are in the top 20 among eligibles. 5 All-Star appearances and 2 Silver Sluggers also aren't enough to compete with some of the other illustrious careers being scrutinized here. (2885 points)
Meanwhile, Tim Smith is one of only 5 eligibles with an OPS of 1.000 or better. He's made All-Star teams and won Silver Sluggers, a Gold Glove and a 2 championship rings. Smith's problem is that his career got a late start, and he just didn't have a chance to reach the milestones needed to put forth a serious case for induction. (2732 points)
Honorable Mention: Ben Musial, Al Pena, Benj Clark, and Hugh Moore
Points are awarded based on ranking among eligible players in statistical categories (top 20 in each category get points = (21-ranking)^2), and for awards, All Star appearances, and other notable accomplishments.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
The Hall of Fame: Who you should be voting for
As one might expect, the first couple seasons of HOF voting have involved a ton of nominations, many of them approaching Jim Deshaies-level desperation. In the midst of this confused landscape, those that voted ushered in the no-brainers: Doug Connelly, Rusty Jones and Earl Wilkerson.
In the hopes of helping the voters, I've attempted an objective study of the candidates for enshrinement. This far removed from the early days of Morgan, many owners didn't even see Jones or Connelly in action. So employing a scheme where I assigned points based on All-Star appearances and other awards, as well as points for ranking in important career stats,* I was able to separate some wheat from the chaff.
A perfect approach? Probably not. But, I think the results I've come up with make sense when viewed subjectively, and I suspect will make the HOF debate a little more interesting. On to the results!
The Hitters
Locks for a Plaque:
3 guys stood out above the rest. During their careers they gave pitchers nightmares. In my opinion, they should go in on the next ballot.
Yamid Sierra: Among the current nomination-eligible players, Sierra is the statistical king. He leads the pack in runs, hits, home runs and RBI. Toronto's had good and bad seasons, but Yamid's been the picture of consistency. The one knock on him is that he only played in two All-Star games and won one Silver Slugger. Even with Doug Connelly and Carlos Johnson overshadowing him most of his career, it's hard to believe he couldn't make more All-Star teams.
George Spence: If you're a relative newcomer to Morgan, you missed out. George Spence was only really dominant for about 5 years, but what a 5 years! While Connelly was the NL's best hitter, Spence was the best in the AL. Only Spence has posted a slugging percentage over .800 twice. In the first five years of Morgan, Spence was a 5-time All-Star, 4-time Silver Slugger, and was AL MVP twice. His AB/HR is better than Sierra's (11.4 vs. 11.7), despite missing out on some prime years when the league started. Now that the first tier of league legends are in, it's time for Spence to get his due.
Eric Thomas: He's a DH. He profited from a standout cast assembled by Jester. Doesn't matter. Thomas is too good to leave off your ballot. A member of 6 All-Star teams, he also won 8 Silver Sluggers to go with his 3 World Series rings. He's in the top 10 in runs, hits, homers, and RBI, and he is the only player in the top 10 in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Voters may not love one-dimensional players, but how many players have hit so well for so long?
Very close calls:
Rafael Cedeno: Maybe he gets in this next go-round. Maybe it'll be on the ballot after that. But with 2522 hits and a .322 career average from a shortstop, he should get in before his eligibility runs out. With 5 All-Star appearances and 3 Silver Sluggers and a top 10 finish in runs, hits, home runs, RBI and batting average, you can forgive Cedeno if he was only a mediocre defensive shortstop.
Hugh Moore: My gut tells me Cedeno should be in, and Moore should be out. His MVP goes a long way in my book, but Moore just didn't quite put up the impressive cumulative stats he needs. He's #1 in slugging percentage, but he only managed 1501 hits and 1222 RBI. And while he performed some heroics as a platoon player for Hartford's championship run in S9, he only made 2 All-Star teams and won 1 Silver Slugger.
Ben Musial: Looks a lot like Moore. He put up some nice power numbers (top 10 in homers, RBI, slugging) but the hits, runs and OBP aren't there. His 4 All-Star selections and his MVP are impressive, but he never won a Silver Slugger or a World Series ring. Playing out his best years at a time when offense was king, Musial didn't quite stand out enough to warrant HOF honors.
Tim Smith: Another guy with strong power numbers, Smith was a 4-time All Star and Silver Slugger. Adding in his 2 championship rings and his experience at numerous defensive positions and Smith has a pretty strong case. On the other hand, none of his career stats stand out, and they'll only seem less impressive when Carl Cochrane and Carlos Johnson and Tim Durbin hang 'em up.
Still worth talking about:
Phillip O'Malley is in the top 10 in a bunch of categories, though he only made 1 AS team and was never a standout star...Barry Durocher wasn't a real asset behind the plate, but at the plate he was the best around at getting on base safely...Andre Hamill was one of the very few players who could change a game with his aggressive baserunning for the go-go Braves...Darrel Perez didn't put up huge numbers, but not many players make it to 5 All-Star games, especially as a middle infielder.
The Pitchers
Bottom line? You might want to save your pitching vote for Vitas Sobkowiak in case he retires. After the Polish Prince of Mascoutah, every other arm pales in comparison. While I don't think there are any clear first-ballot types, there are some intriguing cases to be made and arguments to get fans riled up.
In the Ballpark:
Jerome Turner: Remind you of anybody? He's done some starting. He's pitched out of the pen. 7 All-Star teams, a Cy Young, a Fireman of the Year and a ring to his credit. He's done as good a job as anyone of keeping runners off the bases and winning games. His case might be clearer if his teams had ever agreed on how best to use him. 128 wins and 150 saves just don't feel like Hall of Fame numbers.
Mike Andrews: 179 wins and 6 All-Star appearances aren't shabby. But what some people will remember about him are the big money contracts he never quite lived up to. A 6-time All-Star, Andrews walked away never having won a Cy Young or a championship. Still, he ranks in the top 10 in just about every major pitching category.
B. C. Sierra: His .680 winning percentage, 5 All-Star appearances and Cy Young award are great, but he never won a title, and only racked up 132 career wins. Like many pitchers, he suffered through years of offensive domination and a truncated career. One day we may look back and have a better appreciation of pitchers like Sierra, but there's no veterans' committee to sneak anyone in the back door.
Joel Coleman: Coleman felt like he had a few years of real dominance, and his 4 All-Star selections and 2 Cy Youngs back that up, but his career numbers don't help his case. His career ERA is just ok at 3.97, and he only managed 136 wins and a .596 winning percentage. I don't see him making it onto many ballots.
Javier Sosa: As his career saves total looks less and less impressive with every one Jerome Patrick racks up, Sosa's case might be DOA. If not for some infamous playoff implosions, the 7-time All-Star and 5-time Fireman of the Year could have made it in on his first or second ballot. He's still got a chance, but his window of opportunity is closing fast. Of the pitching candidates, I think Sosa and Turner probably make the strongest cases.
Not Yet Mathematically Eliminated:
Ramon Ramirez has the most wins of any candidate not in the Hall with 192, and his other stats stack up pretty well, even if he never was a dominant hurler...R. J. Sivilla won a number of strikeout titles and a Cy Young, though his 162-122 record is just so-so...Andres Terrero's stats aren't Hall of Fame-worthy, but the guy was a winner for Hartford, posting a 162-104 record and taking home a Cy Young and 2 World Series rings...Before Javier Sosa surpassed him, Chris Santangelo was the league's premier closer, appearing in 6 AS games...
* For those finishing in the top 10 in a given category among retirees, points were apportioned logarithmically based on where a player ranked. Leading all possible nominees in HRs, for instance, is worth twice as much as finishing second, which is worth twice as much as a third place finish, etc.
In the hopes of helping the voters, I've attempted an objective study of the candidates for enshrinement. This far removed from the early days of Morgan, many owners didn't even see Jones or Connelly in action. So employing a scheme where I assigned points based on All-Star appearances and other awards, as well as points for ranking in important career stats,* I was able to separate some wheat from the chaff.
A perfect approach? Probably not. But, I think the results I've come up with make sense when viewed subjectively, and I suspect will make the HOF debate a little more interesting. On to the results!
The Hitters
Locks for a Plaque:
3 guys stood out above the rest. During their careers they gave pitchers nightmares. In my opinion, they should go in on the next ballot.
Yamid Sierra: Among the current nomination-eligible players, Sierra is the statistical king. He leads the pack in runs, hits, home runs and RBI. Toronto's had good and bad seasons, but Yamid's been the picture of consistency. The one knock on him is that he only played in two All-Star games and won one Silver Slugger. Even with Doug Connelly and Carlos Johnson overshadowing him most of his career, it's hard to believe he couldn't make more All-Star teams.
George Spence: If you're a relative newcomer to Morgan, you missed out. George Spence was only really dominant for about 5 years, but what a 5 years! While Connelly was the NL's best hitter, Spence was the best in the AL. Only Spence has posted a slugging percentage over .800 twice. In the first five years of Morgan, Spence was a 5-time All-Star, 4-time Silver Slugger, and was AL MVP twice. His AB/HR is better than Sierra's (11.4 vs. 11.7), despite missing out on some prime years when the league started. Now that the first tier of league legends are in, it's time for Spence to get his due.
Eric Thomas: He's a DH. He profited from a standout cast assembled by Jester. Doesn't matter. Thomas is too good to leave off your ballot. A member of 6 All-Star teams, he also won 8 Silver Sluggers to go with his 3 World Series rings. He's in the top 10 in runs, hits, homers, and RBI, and he is the only player in the top 10 in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Voters may not love one-dimensional players, but how many players have hit so well for so long?
Very close calls:
Rafael Cedeno: Maybe he gets in this next go-round. Maybe it'll be on the ballot after that. But with 2522 hits and a .322 career average from a shortstop, he should get in before his eligibility runs out. With 5 All-Star appearances and 3 Silver Sluggers and a top 10 finish in runs, hits, home runs, RBI and batting average, you can forgive Cedeno if he was only a mediocre defensive shortstop.
Hugh Moore: My gut tells me Cedeno should be in, and Moore should be out. His MVP goes a long way in my book, but Moore just didn't quite put up the impressive cumulative stats he needs. He's #1 in slugging percentage, but he only managed 1501 hits and 1222 RBI. And while he performed some heroics as a platoon player for Hartford's championship run in S9, he only made 2 All-Star teams and won 1 Silver Slugger.
Ben Musial: Looks a lot like Moore. He put up some nice power numbers (top 10 in homers, RBI, slugging) but the hits, runs and OBP aren't there. His 4 All-Star selections and his MVP are impressive, but he never won a Silver Slugger or a World Series ring. Playing out his best years at a time when offense was king, Musial didn't quite stand out enough to warrant HOF honors.
Tim Smith: Another guy with strong power numbers, Smith was a 4-time All Star and Silver Slugger. Adding in his 2 championship rings and his experience at numerous defensive positions and Smith has a pretty strong case. On the other hand, none of his career stats stand out, and they'll only seem less impressive when Carl Cochrane and Carlos Johnson and Tim Durbin hang 'em up.
Still worth talking about:
Phillip O'Malley is in the top 10 in a bunch of categories, though he only made 1 AS team and was never a standout star...Barry Durocher wasn't a real asset behind the plate, but at the plate he was the best around at getting on base safely...Andre Hamill was one of the very few players who could change a game with his aggressive baserunning for the go-go Braves...Darrel Perez didn't put up huge numbers, but not many players make it to 5 All-Star games, especially as a middle infielder.
The Pitchers
Bottom line? You might want to save your pitching vote for Vitas Sobkowiak in case he retires. After the Polish Prince of Mascoutah, every other arm pales in comparison. While I don't think there are any clear first-ballot types, there are some intriguing cases to be made and arguments to get fans riled up.
In the Ballpark:
Jerome Turner: Remind you of anybody? He's done some starting. He's pitched out of the pen. 7 All-Star teams, a Cy Young, a Fireman of the Year and a ring to his credit. He's done as good a job as anyone of keeping runners off the bases and winning games. His case might be clearer if his teams had ever agreed on how best to use him. 128 wins and 150 saves just don't feel like Hall of Fame numbers.
Mike Andrews: 179 wins and 6 All-Star appearances aren't shabby. But what some people will remember about him are the big money contracts he never quite lived up to. A 6-time All-Star, Andrews walked away never having won a Cy Young or a championship. Still, he ranks in the top 10 in just about every major pitching category.
B. C. Sierra: His .680 winning percentage, 5 All-Star appearances and Cy Young award are great, but he never won a title, and only racked up 132 career wins. Like many pitchers, he suffered through years of offensive domination and a truncated career. One day we may look back and have a better appreciation of pitchers like Sierra, but there's no veterans' committee to sneak anyone in the back door.
Joel Coleman: Coleman felt like he had a few years of real dominance, and his 4 All-Star selections and 2 Cy Youngs back that up, but his career numbers don't help his case. His career ERA is just ok at 3.97, and he only managed 136 wins and a .596 winning percentage. I don't see him making it onto many ballots.
Javier Sosa: As his career saves total looks less and less impressive with every one Jerome Patrick racks up, Sosa's case might be DOA. If not for some infamous playoff implosions, the 7-time All-Star and 5-time Fireman of the Year could have made it in on his first or second ballot. He's still got a chance, but his window of opportunity is closing fast. Of the pitching candidates, I think Sosa and Turner probably make the strongest cases.
Not Yet Mathematically Eliminated:
Ramon Ramirez has the most wins of any candidate not in the Hall with 192, and his other stats stack up pretty well, even if he never was a dominant hurler...R. J. Sivilla won a number of strikeout titles and a Cy Young, though his 162-122 record is just so-so...Andres Terrero's stats aren't Hall of Fame-worthy, but the guy was a winner for Hartford, posting a 162-104 record and taking home a Cy Young and 2 World Series rings...Before Javier Sosa surpassed him, Chris Santangelo was the league's premier closer, appearing in 6 AS games...
* For those finishing in the top 10 in a given category among retirees, points were apportioned logarithmically based on where a player ranked. Leading all possible nominees in HRs, for instance, is worth twice as much as finishing second, which is worth twice as much as a third place finish, etc.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Vet Committee and Rules for the league
We have created the veterans committee (VC) for Morgan world and the members are joemac55, chrispy, jarazix, douglasdao, steelforge, chonefiggins and jester74. They will vote on league issues.
The proposals for competitive play guidelines are:
Teams with less than 50 wins in a single season will be voted on by the VC to see if they followed the fair play guidelines and can stay in the league.
Teams with less than 125 wins over 2 two seasons will be voted on by the VC to see if they followed the fair play guidelines and can stay in the league.
Teams that that will be going into the a season where they will be having a top 5 draft pick for the 4th season in a row will be voted on by the VC to see if they followed the fair play guidelines and can stay in the league.
The fair play guidelines that teams will be judged on are are as follows: did the teams carry full rosters, monitor pitching staffs in order to not use tired pitchers, play position players at appropriate defensive position, using available means to improve their roster (FA, WW, trades, etc), and any violation of standards mentioned in the HBD fair play guidelines.
The proposals for competitive play guidelines are:
Teams with less than 50 wins in a single season will be voted on by the VC to see if they followed the fair play guidelines and can stay in the league.
Teams with less than 125 wins over 2 two seasons will be voted on by the VC to see if they followed the fair play guidelines and can stay in the league.
Teams that that will be going into the a season where they will be having a top 5 draft pick for the 4th season in a row will be voted on by the VC to see if they followed the fair play guidelines and can stay in the league.
The fair play guidelines that teams will be judged on are are as follows: did the teams carry full rosters, monitor pitching staffs in order to not use tired pitchers, play position players at appropriate defensive position, using available means to improve their roster (FA, WW, trades, etc), and any violation of standards mentioned in the HBD fair play guidelines.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
S13 Draft Review
My advance scouting isn’t great, but IMHO this was one of the worst drafts we’ve seen a while. I really only saw four guys in the whole draft that I thought – Wow, wish I had him on my team.
Best drafts.
Helena – Not only added the best player, but this team needed a quantity of players and they got that in later rounds. Best draft in the league.
Memphis – One of the best SPs and a solid bullpen guy.
Pawtucket – A couple of really nice SPs, both a little raw with nice upside. It’s more a surprise though if you have the first pick and don’t get on the best draft list.
Austin – An all-star middle of the order bat with the 18th pick is very good.
Oakland – Drafted a franchise star and another solid ML position player.
Anaheim – got a dominant closer in James Murphy. Two plus pitches with superior control and vR ratings. He won’t pitch 100 IPs, but good enough STA/DUR to close.
Got Darryl Romanski for letting Wes Davies walk. His defense probably isn’t good enough to be a full time C, but that huge hole in his vR rating really hurts his value.
Another good RP in Jason King.
Atlanta - A.J. Robinson is one of the more interesting guys in the draft. He could be an MVP candidate if he could get 550 ABs, but he might only get half that. One of the worst DUR ratings I’ve ever seen in a position player, but when he does play he makes an impact.
Grabbed another C with Phillip Dyer, very nice bat and good enough defensive ratings to not be a liability behind the plate.
Austin – I think Alex Sellers has a chance to put up some of the gaudiest numbers of the draft. He won’t win a batting title or get .400 OBP, but I think he’ll hit .270/50/130 and can play 2B or 3B effectively. Can’t believe he lasted until pick 18.
If Dion Dixon signs he’ll be a solid RP for this team.
Boise - Junior Olmedo is a very solid CF/2B. He would be a great leadoff or #2 hitter and a nice pickup at #20.
Lonnie Sterns is a great RP pickup in the second round. He can give you an inning plus 3-4 days a week.
Lonnie Sterns is one of the classic HBD guys that will hit .220 and hit 48 HRs if given enough ABs, some owners like these type of guys and other won’t ever play them.
Chicago – In an attempt to get every great young pitcher in the league they drafted Francis Tucker. A solid SP that says he is determined to go to college, if he signs it will be for at least $8M and possibly $10-12M range (and he’s worth it.)
Cleveland – SP Delanor Cuddyer has acceptable control and splits, but I think very nice his pitch ratings might be enough to push him over and make this guy stand out in the league.
Supplemental pick John Edwards is interesting. I don’t think his vR is good enough for the big leagues, but his control and pitch ratings are so good I might be wrong. He’d be great if the left handed specialist setting actually worked in the game.
Detroit – A great pick at 25 Will Shave might even have a better bat than the above raved about Alex Sellars. The only real downside is he’s a DH and DUR is just average.
Jo-jo Christenson is a nice looking RP with a tad low control, but should make a good LRA/LRB type guy.
Dover – can’t see un-signed first rounder. Sting Risley looks like a decent LRA type guy.
Durham – Kyle Brooks is an interesting pick. Excellent control and spilts, and two very good pitches. His STA is a tad low for an SP, but pitches 3-5 are horrible. I’m not sure how much that will affect him since he does have two nice pitches. Too bad we can’t control pitches because I would drop his last three pitches and make him a closer.
Florida – Got a very nice SP at number 20 in Adrian Selby. He’s not a #1 or #2 SP; picking in the 20s won’t ever get you that. He will be a solid SP, pitch 200+ innings, and probably a high 4’s ERA.
Fresno – I really like the first of their three 1st round picks, a good hitting 2B/CF. But Fresno hasn’t signed any picks in the first 5 rounds.
Hartford – Good SP Vance O'Neill - I would expect him to be a #2 or #3 kind of guy.
Gil Gardner isn’t bad for being a 2nd rounder, more of a back of the rotation/middle relief kind of pitcher.
Helena – The best player in the draft was picked at #3 - Sammy Cairo. If he doesn’t win an MVP at some point in his career I would be shocked. He’s could play in the majors today and do well, and about the only thing that would derail his trip to the hall of fame would be injuries.
Skeeter Aurilia is a nice little pitcher, only thing holding him back is STA/DUR combo, but he’ll pitch solid.
Kevin Burch is another really nice player, an RP that has great stuff. Again his STA/DUR combo is low, but probably good enough to be a closer.
Even Garry Saunders is a decent pick for this late in the draft.
Huntington – First pick hasn’t signed. Harry Ramirez is talented and versatile enough to make the majors, but not exactly a game changing type guy.
Louisville – a late first round pick Pablo Rodriguez is will have a good ML career. Unfortunately he doesn’t look like he can play SS at the ML level, which makes his bat less potent.
Madison – SP Pablo Rodriguez will have a good career. I see him a lot like Sting Greene.
Mike Monahan is a quality 2B with a good bat.
Memphis – Got one of the best SPs in the draft in Ricardo Cabeza. Pitching is always at a premium and Ricardo is at least the SP closest to being effective in the majors. I don’t consider him a HOF’er, but he’s a solid #1 or #2 and can pitch 220+ innings.
RP Maverick Moore was a great pickup at #61 – great stuff, but that STA/DUR is kind of low.
Minnesota – Roberto Lecuona looks more like a 3B than SS, but his bat is good enough to be a franchise player. Nice pickup at #9.
Nashville – CF Myron Clarke has a great glove and a good enough bat to eventually play in the majors. To me he still looks very raw though and has a long way to develop to make the majors and it might be 4-5 seasons before he makes the majors.
Roy Helms is another CF with a decent bat.
NY – haven’t seen them sign at significant players yet.
Oakland – At number 8 drafted a franchise player in Rickey Brantley. Great contact and power and good enough splits, his BE is a little low. I kind of see him as a Vlad Guerrero type guy. Won’t walk a bunch, but won’t strike out and will hit a ton of homers. I could see 40-50 HRs a season, but with such a high contact rating with that power that could be a conservative estimate. The most annoying thing about this guy could be his 90+ speed and 30+ base running ability. Those guys seem to end up with 35 SBs and 27 CS.
Lawrence Ellis is a nice player, but that low vR rating could keep him from being really good. Nice pick for #99.
Pawtucket – The first pick in the draft Pedro Melo was probably the SP with most upside. His control and splits just about assure him of being a very good SP. His name should be alongside that of Alex Lee, Hersh Knight, and Brett Bell. The only downside to him is his pitch ratings aren’t spectacular, but I think he will still be very good.
SP Mack Devereaux looks nice, but that control worries me a little bit.
Richmond – OF Denny Henry has interesting ratings. Power and splits are pretty average in the 50s and 60s, but he’s got such good contact and BE that he should have a great OBP.
San Diego - Ray Washington should have a nice long career in the majors. Looks to me a lot like Willie Liriano. So he’s more of a #2 or #3 kind of SP.
Also drafted a solid MIF Shane Simmons. Looks like a super utility type guy to me. I actually think that their next pick in Vinny Calderon has a better chance of being a quality starting position player.
San Juan – They had four picks from 28-53 First round holdout Gerald Duran looks to be a nice RP if he signs. Carlton Sisler was another good RP selection. They have another holdout and then the last first rounder is Len Thompson. I’m a little concerned about Len’s pitch ratings and poor STA/DUR combo. 60 IPs might be the most he can put out in a season.
Zack Enders can pitch a few more innings, but he looks like a SuB kind of pitcher.
Dennis Lo actually looks to be a decent 3B prospect.
For being such a weak draft San Juan is probably coming out with about as many ML’ers as any other team. But if Duran doesn’t sign, they could also be turning 4 first rounders and 2 second round picks into about 115 quality relief innings and a 3B that should be a good #7 hitter, which is probably less than they were hoping for.
Scottsdale - Lou Raggio looks to me one of the best RPs taken in the draft. The only real concern I have of him is his low GB/FB ratio. I usually don’t concern myself much with that rating, but in a place like Scottsdale it can be problematic.
St. Louis – Not only was this draft weak, but SS’s that could field seems very sparse. Marino Nieto is about the only quality fielding SS that also had a very good bat available in the draft.
Gerald Dunham looks like an above average bat that can play 2B.
Syracuse – hasn’t signed any significant players.
Tampa Bay – Adam Andrews looks like he could be an all-star SP, but he hasn’t decided yet if he is going to sign.
Texas – looks to have a gold glove type CF/2B in Juan Cairo with a solid bat.
Toronto – Grabbed SP Julio Manzanillo, who should have a long solid if unspectacular career in HBD.
Blaine Nen is probably the best defensive SS with any semblance of a ML bat and even that is just because he has a good vR and BE rating. His glove is still very raw, but has potential.
Vancouver - Ignacio Martinez could be a really good 4th OF or Backup 1B.
Best drafts.
Helena – Not only added the best player, but this team needed a quantity of players and they got that in later rounds. Best draft in the league.
Memphis – One of the best SPs and a solid bullpen guy.
Pawtucket – A couple of really nice SPs, both a little raw with nice upside. It’s more a surprise though if you have the first pick and don’t get on the best draft list.
Austin – An all-star middle of the order bat with the 18th pick is very good.
Oakland – Drafted a franchise star and another solid ML position player.
Anaheim – got a dominant closer in James Murphy. Two plus pitches with superior control and vR ratings. He won’t pitch 100 IPs, but good enough STA/DUR to close.
Got Darryl Romanski for letting Wes Davies walk. His defense probably isn’t good enough to be a full time C, but that huge hole in his vR rating really hurts his value.
Another good RP in Jason King.
Atlanta - A.J. Robinson is one of the more interesting guys in the draft. He could be an MVP candidate if he could get 550 ABs, but he might only get half that. One of the worst DUR ratings I’ve ever seen in a position player, but when he does play he makes an impact.
Grabbed another C with Phillip Dyer, very nice bat and good enough defensive ratings to not be a liability behind the plate.
Austin – I think Alex Sellers has a chance to put up some of the gaudiest numbers of the draft. He won’t win a batting title or get .400 OBP, but I think he’ll hit .270/50/130 and can play 2B or 3B effectively. Can’t believe he lasted until pick 18.
If Dion Dixon signs he’ll be a solid RP for this team.
Boise - Junior Olmedo is a very solid CF/2B. He would be a great leadoff or #2 hitter and a nice pickup at #20.
Lonnie Sterns is a great RP pickup in the second round. He can give you an inning plus 3-4 days a week.
Lonnie Sterns is one of the classic HBD guys that will hit .220 and hit 48 HRs if given enough ABs, some owners like these type of guys and other won’t ever play them.
Chicago – In an attempt to get every great young pitcher in the league they drafted Francis Tucker. A solid SP that says he is determined to go to college, if he signs it will be for at least $8M and possibly $10-12M range (and he’s worth it.)
Cleveland – SP Delanor Cuddyer has acceptable control and splits, but I think very nice his pitch ratings might be enough to push him over and make this guy stand out in the league.
Supplemental pick John Edwards is interesting. I don’t think his vR is good enough for the big leagues, but his control and pitch ratings are so good I might be wrong. He’d be great if the left handed specialist setting actually worked in the game.
Detroit – A great pick at 25 Will Shave might even have a better bat than the above raved about Alex Sellars. The only real downside is he’s a DH and DUR is just average.
Jo-jo Christenson is a nice looking RP with a tad low control, but should make a good LRA/LRB type guy.
Dover – can’t see un-signed first rounder. Sting Risley looks like a decent LRA type guy.
Durham – Kyle Brooks is an interesting pick. Excellent control and spilts, and two very good pitches. His STA is a tad low for an SP, but pitches 3-5 are horrible. I’m not sure how much that will affect him since he does have two nice pitches. Too bad we can’t control pitches because I would drop his last three pitches and make him a closer.
Florida – Got a very nice SP at number 20 in Adrian Selby. He’s not a #1 or #2 SP; picking in the 20s won’t ever get you that. He will be a solid SP, pitch 200+ innings, and probably a high 4’s ERA.
Fresno – I really like the first of their three 1st round picks, a good hitting 2B/CF. But Fresno hasn’t signed any picks in the first 5 rounds.
Hartford – Good SP Vance O'Neill - I would expect him to be a #2 or #3 kind of guy.
Gil Gardner isn’t bad for being a 2nd rounder, more of a back of the rotation/middle relief kind of pitcher.
Helena – The best player in the draft was picked at #3 - Sammy Cairo. If he doesn’t win an MVP at some point in his career I would be shocked. He’s could play in the majors today and do well, and about the only thing that would derail his trip to the hall of fame would be injuries.
Skeeter Aurilia is a nice little pitcher, only thing holding him back is STA/DUR combo, but he’ll pitch solid.
Kevin Burch is another really nice player, an RP that has great stuff. Again his STA/DUR combo is low, but probably good enough to be a closer.
Even Garry Saunders is a decent pick for this late in the draft.
Huntington – First pick hasn’t signed. Harry Ramirez is talented and versatile enough to make the majors, but not exactly a game changing type guy.
Louisville – a late first round pick Pablo Rodriguez is will have a good ML career. Unfortunately he doesn’t look like he can play SS at the ML level, which makes his bat less potent.
Madison – SP Pablo Rodriguez will have a good career. I see him a lot like Sting Greene.
Mike Monahan is a quality 2B with a good bat.
Memphis – Got one of the best SPs in the draft in Ricardo Cabeza. Pitching is always at a premium and Ricardo is at least the SP closest to being effective in the majors. I don’t consider him a HOF’er, but he’s a solid #1 or #2 and can pitch 220+ innings.
RP Maverick Moore was a great pickup at #61 – great stuff, but that STA/DUR is kind of low.
Minnesota – Roberto Lecuona looks more like a 3B than SS, but his bat is good enough to be a franchise player. Nice pickup at #9.
Nashville – CF Myron Clarke has a great glove and a good enough bat to eventually play in the majors. To me he still looks very raw though and has a long way to develop to make the majors and it might be 4-5 seasons before he makes the majors.
Roy Helms is another CF with a decent bat.
NY – haven’t seen them sign at significant players yet.
Oakland – At number 8 drafted a franchise player in Rickey Brantley. Great contact and power and good enough splits, his BE is a little low. I kind of see him as a Vlad Guerrero type guy. Won’t walk a bunch, but won’t strike out and will hit a ton of homers. I could see 40-50 HRs a season, but with such a high contact rating with that power that could be a conservative estimate. The most annoying thing about this guy could be his 90+ speed and 30+ base running ability. Those guys seem to end up with 35 SBs and 27 CS.
Lawrence Ellis is a nice player, but that low vR rating could keep him from being really good. Nice pick for #99.
Pawtucket – The first pick in the draft Pedro Melo was probably the SP with most upside. His control and splits just about assure him of being a very good SP. His name should be alongside that of Alex Lee, Hersh Knight, and Brett Bell. The only downside to him is his pitch ratings aren’t spectacular, but I think he will still be very good.
SP Mack Devereaux looks nice, but that control worries me a little bit.
Richmond – OF Denny Henry has interesting ratings. Power and splits are pretty average in the 50s and 60s, but he’s got such good contact and BE that he should have a great OBP.
San Diego - Ray Washington should have a nice long career in the majors. Looks to me a lot like Willie Liriano. So he’s more of a #2 or #3 kind of SP.
Also drafted a solid MIF Shane Simmons. Looks like a super utility type guy to me. I actually think that their next pick in Vinny Calderon has a better chance of being a quality starting position player.
San Juan – They had four picks from 28-53 First round holdout Gerald Duran looks to be a nice RP if he signs. Carlton Sisler was another good RP selection. They have another holdout and then the last first rounder is Len Thompson. I’m a little concerned about Len’s pitch ratings and poor STA/DUR combo. 60 IPs might be the most he can put out in a season.
Zack Enders can pitch a few more innings, but he looks like a SuB kind of pitcher.
Dennis Lo actually looks to be a decent 3B prospect.
For being such a weak draft San Juan is probably coming out with about as many ML’ers as any other team. But if Duran doesn’t sign, they could also be turning 4 first rounders and 2 second round picks into about 115 quality relief innings and a 3B that should be a good #7 hitter, which is probably less than they were hoping for.
Scottsdale - Lou Raggio looks to me one of the best RPs taken in the draft. The only real concern I have of him is his low GB/FB ratio. I usually don’t concern myself much with that rating, but in a place like Scottsdale it can be problematic.
St. Louis – Not only was this draft weak, but SS’s that could field seems very sparse. Marino Nieto is about the only quality fielding SS that also had a very good bat available in the draft.
Gerald Dunham looks like an above average bat that can play 2B.
Syracuse – hasn’t signed any significant players.
Tampa Bay – Adam Andrews looks like he could be an all-star SP, but he hasn’t decided yet if he is going to sign.
Texas – looks to have a gold glove type CF/2B in Juan Cairo with a solid bat.
Toronto – Grabbed SP Julio Manzanillo, who should have a long solid if unspectacular career in HBD.
Blaine Nen is probably the best defensive SS with any semblance of a ML bat and even that is just because he has a good vR and BE rating. His glove is still very raw, but has potential.
Vancouver - Ignacio Martinez could be a really good 4th OF or Backup 1B.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
All About The Rings
53 men have played in the postseason for at least two World Series winners. Of them, five share the record by playing with 3 Series winners: Tim Durbin, Rusty Jones, Will Monroe, Eric Thomas and Earl Wilkerson. Perhaps unsurprisingly, all 5 won all of their championships with Scottsdale/Vancouver.
Durbin, Monroe, and Thomas seek an opportunity to win a 4th ring with Vancouver, while Rusty Jones still has hopes of winning his 4th with the Scottsdale Force.
Also of note: Of the players who won the title with Toronto in Morgan League's inaugural season, one is still chasing a title this season--Boston starter Tom Nickle, who went 3-1 during the playoffs during that first season as a 24 year-old.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
All-Time Records
Top 5
- Vancouver: 1,164-618
- Atlanta: 1,094-688*
- New York (AL): 1,063-719*
- Hartford: 1,045-737*
- Scottsdale: 1,044-738
* - Original owner.
Original Owner Records
- Atlanta: 1,094-618; joemac55
- New York (AL): 1,063-719; chris_rog1
- Hartford: 1,045-738; ChoneFiggins
- St. Louis: 941-841; wonderin32
- Toronto: 913-869; barjaz
- Memphis: 910-872; mh17
- Austin: 880-902; chrispy
- Boise: 845-937; hurricane384
Fascinating Facts
- Since TheJester74 has taken over, Vancouver has never won fewer than 100 games.
- Atlanta, Hartford, Scottsdale, and Anaheim have never had a losing season.
- Most wins in a season, Vancouver, season 8 - 122
- Vancouver has 7 of the top 10 winningest seasons in Morgan History.
- Fewest wins - Florida, season 4 - 2
- Honolulu, Durham, and Florida are the only teams with single digits wins in a season.
- Of the 3 teams with single digit wins on their records, only 1 has followed that season with a winning season, Durham.
- Two teams have never had a winning record. Honolulu & Nashville.
- Of the 8 original owners, 6 are in the NL, and 2 are in the AL
World Series Information
Champions
- Vancouver - 3
- New York (AL)/Hartford - 2
- Toronto/Washington, DC/Atlanta/Boston - 1
Appearances
- Atlanta - 5
- Vancouver - 4
- Hartford - 3
- Washington, DC/Sacramento/New York (AL) - 2
- Toronto/St. Louis/Boston/Texas - 1
Random Facts about the Winners' Season (Rank)
- Average ERA - 4.47 (7)
- Average Runs - 1,055 (9)
- Average fielding percentage - 98.4% (8)
- AL leads in championships, 6-5
- AL leads in wins, 32-27
- Best ERA - Vancouver, season 10 - 3.60
- Most RS - Scottsdale, season 4 - 1,318
- Best FP - New York (AL), season 6 - 99.2%
- Worst ERA - Toronto, season 1 - 5.02
- Fewest RS - Boston, season 7 - 912
- Worst FP - Atlanta, season 5 - 97.8%
Sunday, April 12, 2009
SS Evaluation
Ages of ML SS with 85 glove when drafted or signed as an IFA. Original means they were there when the world started. I checked 5 worlds that were all at least 10 seasons old.
| World/Age | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | Original | Total Developed |
| Morgan S12 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 |
| Schticless S12 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 18 |
| Gleeman S10 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 14 |
| Coop S10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| Griffey S11 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| Total | 39 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 79 | |
| Percentage | 0.49 | 0.2 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.08 |
Saturday, January 17, 2009
S11 Draft Review
Anaheim - Ken Miller looks like he might be just a tad shy of true SS glove quality, but with his power rating he could be a silver slugger at 3B. Great pickup at 18.
Ed Brosier hasn’t signed yet, but he’s a good pitcher who could probably only throw 65-75 pitches a game so probably best suited for LRA, but maybe SP5.
2nd round pick Marshall Casey is interesting. Upper 90s power, decent splits, 90s Stamina and Health so I expect 50-60 HRs a season.
Then got a future 1B Rheal Coleman 4 picks later.
3rd round got a very nice Closer/Setup type RP in Alex Matos.
No way 4th rounder Nate Palmer is a starter (really a 0 vR rating), but as a 25th man on the roster he gives you SS glove and potentially one of the best SB threats in the league. Not to be outdone 5th round SS choice Jesus Mendez has 0 rating for vR and vL. I’ve never even seen a pitcher with double 0’s for splits.
Atlanta – Future closer picked at #28 Josh Hill, good RP with great pitch ratings. That’s who Dover gave up to get Tony Rivera. Rivera is probably better, but he’s 32 years old. Seems like a fair trade.
Atlanta has indicated they might not sign Tex Toler since he is known as a clubhouse cancer, but he is a decent CF.
The other half of the Rivera signing is Tomas Martin, can pitch a ton of innings and won’t walk many guys, but L/R splits are borderline ML. If he starts for ATL they will probably just hope he holds down the fort in the 5th spot.
2nd round pick Bob Webster is a stellar pitcher, but his mid 30s DUR and 18 STA mean that he can pitch 1 inning every 4 games.
3rd rounder Dmitri Burkhart is a borderline prospect. It usually takes higher L/R splits or pitch ratings to overcome mediocre control. Plus his STA/DUR combo doesn’t really make him an ideal LR or Mopup candidate.
4th rounder Michael Saarloos might be a role player or platoon, but he is young and very raw. Long way to go to develop.
Augusta – For the 25th pick they got a solid SP in Cliff Spradlin. His control is a tad low, but only his 5th pitch should be sub 60, and all his other ratings look good.
Norm Jordan is a safe pick at #78. He’ll be a role player, virtually every defensive and offensive rating falls between mid 50s and low 70s, so he’ll play a fairly non-descript 6-8 year ML career.
Pascual Guzman is one of those odd players that WifS invented, high STA but obscenely low DUR. Personally I don’t think a guy could pitch 85 pitches in a game and then be exhausted for 10 days should exist, but they do in this game. So he’s really a setup/closer type now.
Austin – 13th pick Zephyr Riley is a solid CF/2B prospect. Good range/glove and very nice offensive numbers. He is very raw though and has a long way to go to make his potential.
Destin Shuck looks like a great hitter in the #2 spot. Great OBP, has some power , and hits both Lefties and Righties. Good supp pick for RF.
Boise – Grabbed a solid SP James Hines at #21.
2nd round pick Albert Ashburn looks good, but that control is a bit low. His other numbers might be good enough to overcome that.
Not only does 3rd RP Billy Posey have good pitcher ratings, that DUR in the upper 90’s with mean he can pitch 90+ games a season.
Well a DH aren’t completely useless in the NL, but close. Getting a good PH that could be a backup C in a pinch in the 4th round isn’t that bad David Diaz, now if he picked up a DH in round one I would have certainly questioned the motives, but in round 4 a solid PH is better than nothing.
Boston – CF Glenn Jackson , so Boston has a CF that could leadoff with something close to a .400 OBP. Decent enough glove, but not spectacular.
Solid hitting 2B Buck Wainhouse in the second round.
Douglas Battle has a solid bat, but if he can only be 1B/DH he seems a little below average.
Charlotte – Can’t see his first round pick and he has yet to sign. 2nd round pick Paul Stocker his a great glove CF that has great contact and BE, but not good power or L/R splits. It will be interesting to see how he performs.
3rd round they got a solid 3B Willis Simms who has a little pop in his bat.
I really like 4th round pick Ugueth Soriano, and even if he doesn’t improve his DUR/STA it already stands at an impressive 78/34.
Chicago NL – Well the recent history of picking franchise players in the draft continues for Chicago. Of course pick 4,1,4, and 6 in the last four drafts helps. 3B Jesus Alicea looks to have long productive ML career ahead of him, an few trips to the all-star game isn’t out of the question.
Solid tweener type LR/SP in Orber Ozuna, either way he can probably give you 110-130 IPs a season.
3rd rounder Damion Seneca does everything ok, but doesn’t excel at anything.
Cincinnati - Got one of the top players in the draft in SP P.J. Melfi. Easily puts up 220+ IPs, and gives them a true ace.
SP Luis Hernandez should be able to cover the back end of the rotation.
Cleveland – Got a franchise slugging LH 1B Julian Rosario, it will be interesting to see how the affect of 95 speed and 26 base running skills plays out. He might steal 50 SBs and get thrown out 35 times.
SP/RP Phil Riley should be a good addition to the bullpen.
Well Vlad Goya isn’t worried about his job yet, but in 5 seasons Cleveland will be needing a new CF and Bob Phillips can fill that void…but not quite fill Vlad’s shoes.
Most flame out, but sometimes when given enough ABs those huge power guys like Paul Morandini come through and hit .235/48/115 and sometimes it fits a team’s needs.
Dover – Didn’t pick until 48, but got a solid big league IF Virgil Valdes, great makeup but poor health.
Maybe my scouting is off, but I’m surprised Jayson Rain fell all the way to #113. He’s not a silver slugger, but the only rating which really seems low is BE. Seems he could have been picked 30-40 picks sooner easily.
This draft sure seemed filled with tweener pitchers and Dover got one and it only cost a 4th round pick for Seth Knight.
Durham – Talk about doing it all, Luther Sellers is one of the most interesting guys to come along. All his offensive ratings are 75+, and he has the 100 speed rating with a solid base running skills. He’s going to be one of those rare guys that can win not just a game, but a series virtually by himself.
SP Andrew Daniels could be a back of the rotation type guy.
Florida – Is starting to get used to having to draft in a slot other than 1 or 2, but is still pulling quality talent. Alex Williams has a great bat and should be a great #5 or #6 hitter. Most of their other picks have not signed yet.
Hartford – It’s a little scary that a player like Wesley Hall is headed to the little league ballfield that is called Hartford. It’s one thing when a solid hitting 1B falls to #22, but it’s a 2B with a good glove it makes it even scarier and he’s good at everything else too.
But don’t worry too much, that good hitting 1B Taylor Pavano fell to them at pick #41
Quinn Kaufman is one of those good hitting catchers that abound, but he actually has a good enough glove to be effective behind the plate.
Lon Wood looks like at the very least one of those utility players that can hit and play every position outside of SS and C.
Shawn Hudson is the perfect backup catcher.
Helena – Went heavy on the pitchers, and grabbed an ace SP at #10 in Dick Brooks. He does absolutely everything well and is a certain all-star.
SP Andrea Byrne might make it, but the vR rating seems a tad low.
Louisville – RP Andrea Byrne -w ho I call an RP because in my experience a 14 DUR just can’t pitch as a starter every 5th day and I tried it with a guy that had mid-90s STA. Too bad because he is great in every other manner, but he should still give close to 100 IPs a season.
3B Jordan Benard has interesting ratings, super high contact and BE, and average splits and power. I am very interested in seeing what his stats turn out like.
In the third round Louisville got one of the best SS gloves in the draft Shane Knotts and even hits righties well.
If RP Melvin Walker can overcome low control he could be decent.
Memphis – I hope it’s my poor scouting, but I see Brian Kirby as having great ratings in everything except the vR rating. Seems like a big risk for the 4th pick in the draft.
IF Spike Sweeney is a good all round pick for the third round.
Milwaukee – Their first pick has me stumped a bit, maybe my scouting is way off on this player, but I find it hard to believe he wouldn’t have be available much later in the draft. John Halama has good vR, control and pitch ratings, but his STA and DUR ratings are so low it really affects his usefulness. I actually tried to find a player with 30/30 STA/DUR in the majors and there isn’t one.
Orber Mendoza is an interesting OF. He has great contract and BE and solid power numbers, but modest L/R splits. He is certainly ML material, but I will be interested in seeing what his stats look like.
They got a utility guy Ted Verdugo in the second round. I actually like their #84 pick better Benny Vincente.
Minnesota – Got the premier RP in the draft Juan Galarraga, besides his great control, and L/R splits he has such great STA/DUR that it is almost like having getting a 26th man on the roster. There really was only one negative about this player, and unfortunately it has already come back to bite Minnesota and that is his health rating. Juan has already found himself on the DL for most of the rest of the season.
With the first supp pick they grabbed a pretty good SP in Joe James.
Nashville – SS Mark Posey looks like he will actually have SS quality glove and hits well enough that he doesn’t have to bat 8th or 9th. Nice pickup at #11.
A little torn on SP Derek Paige, decent ratings except vR seems a bit low.
2nd rounder Al Peterson looks like a solid 3B prospect, that high BE really separates him from just and average guy.
CF Stan Matthews looks like a pretty good later round pickup. CF type glove, speed and good splits.
NY AL – 3B Frank Herndon looks to be one of those very solid quality 3B with a Robin Ventura type career. Reminds me of George Gryboski in his stats.
2nd Round pick Lloyd Jenkins is a great hitting slugging DH. Another nice pick for #80 in the draft.
Richmond – This team had 4 first round draft picks. RP Wilkin Padilla was one of the better RPs in the draft. His STA/DUR is so good his best role might actually be Setup A rather than closer so he can 100 or so IPs.
#24 they got SP Barney Velandia who looks like a very nice starter. Two great pitches and very nice control, splits are a tad low but I think the pitch ratings and control will make up for it.
Their third first round pick won’t sign, but their fourth one is a good hitting LF that is a great value pick. Benji Gunderson has great hitting ratings everywhere except an extremely low BE. BE is one of my favorite ratings, but his other batting ratings are so high I think he will still be a valuable player.
4th round pick Norman Edmonds is a decent ML 3B. Same goes for 1B/LF Dick Harris.
Rochester – looks like their first round pick at #14 isn’t going to sign or their pick at #44. They did get a very nice Catcher Ozzie Lee who can be a quality backstop and good bat.
Salem – got one of the better SS in Josh Hume. Good glove, and a nice hitter.
Sam Schneider seems like a decent ML’er, maybe a utility type guy.
San Diego – 8th pick in the draft Jimmy Jefferies reminds me of my own Felipe Rodriguez. Speedy, high OBP, overall very nice player.
Pretty good SP George Adams at #43.
Scottsdale – Didn’t have a 1st round pick, and didn’t sign a guy until the 5th round. At least they got a great bargain on the IFA market.
Sioux Falls – Had thoughts about taking Juan Gallaraga at #1, but after Juan’s injury they are probably glad they passed on that. Instead they chose Sandy Yeats. Probably not the premier HOF type SP they were hoping to get, but he is a very good SP. All four of his pitches are very highly rated, pretty good splits, and doesn’t really have any red flags. Would be a solid SP for any team in the league.
St. Louis – They found a replacement for CF McNamara in Raymond Parnell , a good hitting CF that is already 21 so he should be in the bigs soon.
After getting Parnell in the first round they got a very raw Ariel Vizcaino in round two. Good player that is probably 4 seasons away from the majors.
Hi Wilson is also a good 3rd round pick for 3B.
Got one of the premiere defensive catchers in Hughie Marion. Not a bad hitter, but will struggle against RH pitchers.
Tacoma – The best SP in the draft will probably end up being Alan Gibson. Obviously the player Sioux Falls wish they had seen. A guy like him playing in the pitchers ballpark like Tacoma could have multiple seasons under 3.00 ERA.
Picked a solid closer at #55 in Ralph Gordon. Then got a nice middle reliever Wilfredo Mendez.
Nice defensive C Victor Sanchez will just help this pitching staff.
Texas – Good RP Glenn Ball, nice splits and control. Good enough STA/DUR that he could be the team’s primary setup guy.
Dizzy Reitz looks like a decent #3 or #4 SP,
Larry Clinton looks more like a long relief/emergency starter type guy to me. Control is good, splits ok, but as I looked the lack of a dominant 1st pitch I think will keep him from being a really good SP. That said for the third round he was a good gamble, and maybe he surprises.
Toronto – SP Lewis Mays is very raw. He’s got a rubber arm and could pitch 230+ IPs, but he’s a long way from projections. If he does get close he could be a quality contributor.
SP Dummy Cogan looks good, but he has shaky control.
Hipolito Castillo all round pretty good 2B.
Vancouver – 1st and 2nd round picks haven’t signed. John Conine will be at best the 25th guy that is a great defensive CF/2B and speed off the bench.
Top Drafts
Tacoma – Best Draft in the league. Not only one of the best players, but quality players later in the draft.
Sioux Falls - but picking #1 almost ensures you will be on this list.
Anaheim – All round good selections
Cincinnati – based solely on their first pick
Durham – almost based solely on their first pick.
Richmond – 3 quality first round picks, which are all above average type guys
Hartford – got 5 players that can play well in the big leagues.
Good Picks for where they picked Drafts
NY
Texas
Ed Brosier hasn’t signed yet, but he’s a good pitcher who could probably only throw 65-75 pitches a game so probably best suited for LRA, but maybe SP5.
2nd round pick Marshall Casey is interesting. Upper 90s power, decent splits, 90s Stamina and Health so I expect 50-60 HRs a season.
Then got a future 1B Rheal Coleman 4 picks later.
3rd round got a very nice Closer/Setup type RP in Alex Matos.
No way 4th rounder Nate Palmer is a starter (really a 0 vR rating), but as a 25th man on the roster he gives you SS glove and potentially one of the best SB threats in the league. Not to be outdone 5th round SS choice Jesus Mendez has 0 rating for vR and vL. I’ve never even seen a pitcher with double 0’s for splits.
Atlanta – Future closer picked at #28 Josh Hill, good RP with great pitch ratings. That’s who Dover gave up to get Tony Rivera. Rivera is probably better, but he’s 32 years old. Seems like a fair trade.
Atlanta has indicated they might not sign Tex Toler since he is known as a clubhouse cancer, but he is a decent CF.
The other half of the Rivera signing is Tomas Martin, can pitch a ton of innings and won’t walk many guys, but L/R splits are borderline ML. If he starts for ATL they will probably just hope he holds down the fort in the 5th spot.
2nd round pick Bob Webster is a stellar pitcher, but his mid 30s DUR and 18 STA mean that he can pitch 1 inning every 4 games.
3rd rounder Dmitri Burkhart is a borderline prospect. It usually takes higher L/R splits or pitch ratings to overcome mediocre control. Plus his STA/DUR combo doesn’t really make him an ideal LR or Mopup candidate.
4th rounder Michael Saarloos might be a role player or platoon, but he is young and very raw. Long way to go to develop.
Augusta – For the 25th pick they got a solid SP in Cliff Spradlin. His control is a tad low, but only his 5th pitch should be sub 60, and all his other ratings look good.
Norm Jordan is a safe pick at #78. He’ll be a role player, virtually every defensive and offensive rating falls between mid 50s and low 70s, so he’ll play a fairly non-descript 6-8 year ML career.
Pascual Guzman is one of those odd players that WifS invented, high STA but obscenely low DUR. Personally I don’t think a guy could pitch 85 pitches in a game and then be exhausted for 10 days should exist, but they do in this game. So he’s really a setup/closer type now.
Austin – 13th pick Zephyr Riley is a solid CF/2B prospect. Good range/glove and very nice offensive numbers. He is very raw though and has a long way to go to make his potential.
Destin Shuck looks like a great hitter in the #2 spot. Great OBP, has some power , and hits both Lefties and Righties. Good supp pick for RF.
Boise – Grabbed a solid SP James Hines at #21.
2nd round pick Albert Ashburn looks good, but that control is a bit low. His other numbers might be good enough to overcome that.
Not only does 3rd RP Billy Posey have good pitcher ratings, that DUR in the upper 90’s with mean he can pitch 90+ games a season.
Well a DH aren’t completely useless in the NL, but close. Getting a good PH that could be a backup C in a pinch in the 4th round isn’t that bad David Diaz, now if he picked up a DH in round one I would have certainly questioned the motives, but in round 4 a solid PH is better than nothing.
Boston – CF Glenn Jackson , so Boston has a CF that could leadoff with something close to a .400 OBP. Decent enough glove, but not spectacular.
Solid hitting 2B Buck Wainhouse in the second round.
Douglas Battle has a solid bat, but if he can only be 1B/DH he seems a little below average.
Charlotte – Can’t see his first round pick and he has yet to sign. 2nd round pick Paul Stocker his a great glove CF that has great contact and BE, but not good power or L/R splits. It will be interesting to see how he performs.
3rd round they got a solid 3B Willis Simms who has a little pop in his bat.
I really like 4th round pick Ugueth Soriano, and even if he doesn’t improve his DUR/STA it already stands at an impressive 78/34.
Chicago NL – Well the recent history of picking franchise players in the draft continues for Chicago. Of course pick 4,1,4, and 6 in the last four drafts helps. 3B Jesus Alicea looks to have long productive ML career ahead of him, an few trips to the all-star game isn’t out of the question.
Solid tweener type LR/SP in Orber Ozuna, either way he can probably give you 110-130 IPs a season.
3rd rounder Damion Seneca does everything ok, but doesn’t excel at anything.
Cincinnati - Got one of the top players in the draft in SP P.J. Melfi. Easily puts up 220+ IPs, and gives them a true ace.
SP Luis Hernandez should be able to cover the back end of the rotation.
Cleveland – Got a franchise slugging LH 1B Julian Rosario, it will be interesting to see how the affect of 95 speed and 26 base running skills plays out. He might steal 50 SBs and get thrown out 35 times.
SP/RP Phil Riley should be a good addition to the bullpen.
Well Vlad Goya isn’t worried about his job yet, but in 5 seasons Cleveland will be needing a new CF and Bob Phillips can fill that void…but not quite fill Vlad’s shoes.
Most flame out, but sometimes when given enough ABs those huge power guys like Paul Morandini come through and hit .235/48/115 and sometimes it fits a team’s needs.
Dover – Didn’t pick until 48, but got a solid big league IF Virgil Valdes, great makeup but poor health.
Maybe my scouting is off, but I’m surprised Jayson Rain fell all the way to #113. He’s not a silver slugger, but the only rating which really seems low is BE. Seems he could have been picked 30-40 picks sooner easily.
This draft sure seemed filled with tweener pitchers and Dover got one and it only cost a 4th round pick for Seth Knight.
Durham – Talk about doing it all, Luther Sellers is one of the most interesting guys to come along. All his offensive ratings are 75+, and he has the 100 speed rating with a solid base running skills. He’s going to be one of those rare guys that can win not just a game, but a series virtually by himself.
SP Andrew Daniels could be a back of the rotation type guy.
Florida – Is starting to get used to having to draft in a slot other than 1 or 2, but is still pulling quality talent. Alex Williams has a great bat and should be a great #5 or #6 hitter. Most of their other picks have not signed yet.
Hartford – It’s a little scary that a player like Wesley Hall is headed to the little league ballfield that is called Hartford. It’s one thing when a solid hitting 1B falls to #22, but it’s a 2B with a good glove it makes it even scarier and he’s good at everything else too.
But don’t worry too much, that good hitting 1B Taylor Pavano fell to them at pick #41
Quinn Kaufman is one of those good hitting catchers that abound, but he actually has a good enough glove to be effective behind the plate.
Lon Wood looks like at the very least one of those utility players that can hit and play every position outside of SS and C.
Shawn Hudson is the perfect backup catcher.
Helena – Went heavy on the pitchers, and grabbed an ace SP at #10 in Dick Brooks. He does absolutely everything well and is a certain all-star.
SP Andrea Byrne might make it, but the vR rating seems a tad low.
Louisville – RP Andrea Byrne -w ho I call an RP because in my experience a 14 DUR just can’t pitch as a starter every 5th day and I tried it with a guy that had mid-90s STA. Too bad because he is great in every other manner, but he should still give close to 100 IPs a season.
3B Jordan Benard has interesting ratings, super high contact and BE, and average splits and power. I am very interested in seeing what his stats turn out like.
In the third round Louisville got one of the best SS gloves in the draft Shane Knotts and even hits righties well.
If RP Melvin Walker can overcome low control he could be decent.
Memphis – I hope it’s my poor scouting, but I see Brian Kirby as having great ratings in everything except the vR rating. Seems like a big risk for the 4th pick in the draft.
IF Spike Sweeney is a good all round pick for the third round.
Milwaukee – Their first pick has me stumped a bit, maybe my scouting is way off on this player, but I find it hard to believe he wouldn’t have be available much later in the draft. John Halama has good vR, control and pitch ratings, but his STA and DUR ratings are so low it really affects his usefulness. I actually tried to find a player with 30/30 STA/DUR in the majors and there isn’t one.
Orber Mendoza is an interesting OF. He has great contract and BE and solid power numbers, but modest L/R splits. He is certainly ML material, but I will be interested in seeing what his stats look like.
They got a utility guy Ted Verdugo in the second round. I actually like their #84 pick better Benny Vincente.
Minnesota – Got the premier RP in the draft Juan Galarraga, besides his great control, and L/R splits he has such great STA/DUR that it is almost like having getting a 26th man on the roster. There really was only one negative about this player, and unfortunately it has already come back to bite Minnesota and that is his health rating. Juan has already found himself on the DL for most of the rest of the season.
With the first supp pick they grabbed a pretty good SP in Joe James.
Nashville – SS Mark Posey looks like he will actually have SS quality glove and hits well enough that he doesn’t have to bat 8th or 9th. Nice pickup at #11.
A little torn on SP Derek Paige, decent ratings except vR seems a bit low.
2nd rounder Al Peterson looks like a solid 3B prospect, that high BE really separates him from just and average guy.
CF Stan Matthews looks like a pretty good later round pickup. CF type glove, speed and good splits.
NY AL – 3B Frank Herndon looks to be one of those very solid quality 3B with a Robin Ventura type career. Reminds me of George Gryboski in his stats.
2nd Round pick Lloyd Jenkins is a great hitting slugging DH. Another nice pick for #80 in the draft.
Richmond – This team had 4 first round draft picks. RP Wilkin Padilla was one of the better RPs in the draft. His STA/DUR is so good his best role might actually be Setup A rather than closer so he can 100 or so IPs.
#24 they got SP Barney Velandia who looks like a very nice starter. Two great pitches and very nice control, splits are a tad low but I think the pitch ratings and control will make up for it.
Their third first round pick won’t sign, but their fourth one is a good hitting LF that is a great value pick. Benji Gunderson has great hitting ratings everywhere except an extremely low BE. BE is one of my favorite ratings, but his other batting ratings are so high I think he will still be a valuable player.
4th round pick Norman Edmonds is a decent ML 3B. Same goes for 1B/LF Dick Harris.
Rochester – looks like their first round pick at #14 isn’t going to sign or their pick at #44. They did get a very nice Catcher Ozzie Lee who can be a quality backstop and good bat.
Salem – got one of the better SS in Josh Hume. Good glove, and a nice hitter.
Sam Schneider seems like a decent ML’er, maybe a utility type guy.
San Diego – 8th pick in the draft Jimmy Jefferies reminds me of my own Felipe Rodriguez. Speedy, high OBP, overall very nice player.
Pretty good SP George Adams at #43.
Scottsdale – Didn’t have a 1st round pick, and didn’t sign a guy until the 5th round. At least they got a great bargain on the IFA market.
Sioux Falls – Had thoughts about taking Juan Gallaraga at #1, but after Juan’s injury they are probably glad they passed on that. Instead they chose Sandy Yeats. Probably not the premier HOF type SP they were hoping to get, but he is a very good SP. All four of his pitches are very highly rated, pretty good splits, and doesn’t really have any red flags. Would be a solid SP for any team in the league.
St. Louis – They found a replacement for CF McNamara in Raymond Parnell , a good hitting CF that is already 21 so he should be in the bigs soon.
After getting Parnell in the first round they got a very raw Ariel Vizcaino in round two. Good player that is probably 4 seasons away from the majors.
Hi Wilson is also a good 3rd round pick for 3B.
Got one of the premiere defensive catchers in Hughie Marion. Not a bad hitter, but will struggle against RH pitchers.
Tacoma – The best SP in the draft will probably end up being Alan Gibson. Obviously the player Sioux Falls wish they had seen. A guy like him playing in the pitchers ballpark like Tacoma could have multiple seasons under 3.00 ERA.
Picked a solid closer at #55 in Ralph Gordon. Then got a nice middle reliever Wilfredo Mendez.
Nice defensive C Victor Sanchez will just help this pitching staff.
Texas – Good RP Glenn Ball, nice splits and control. Good enough STA/DUR that he could be the team’s primary setup guy.
Dizzy Reitz looks like a decent #3 or #4 SP,
Larry Clinton looks more like a long relief/emergency starter type guy to me. Control is good, splits ok, but as I looked the lack of a dominant 1st pitch I think will keep him from being a really good SP. That said for the third round he was a good gamble, and maybe he surprises.
Toronto – SP Lewis Mays is very raw. He’s got a rubber arm and could pitch 230+ IPs, but he’s a long way from projections. If he does get close he could be a quality contributor.
SP Dummy Cogan looks good, but he has shaky control.
Hipolito Castillo all round pretty good 2B.
Vancouver – 1st and 2nd round picks haven’t signed. John Conine will be at best the 25th guy that is a great defensive CF/2B and speed off the bench.
Top Drafts
Tacoma – Best Draft in the league. Not only one of the best players, but quality players later in the draft.
Sioux Falls - but picking #1 almost ensures you will be on this list.
Anaheim – All round good selections
Cincinnati – based solely on their first pick
Durham – almost based solely on their first pick.
Richmond – 3 quality first round picks, which are all above average type guys
Hartford – got 5 players that can play well in the big leagues.
Good Picks for where they picked Drafts
NY
Texas
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Top 32 Prospects
Ordering these players was quite difficult. I do feel like the top 5 are the best five, even if not in that order. The pitchers on this list look more impressive then the hitters, perhaps because we throw hitters into the ML fire more quickly then we are willing to with pitching prospects. The list is biased based on what I think makes a player successful in this game (as compared with Major League Baseball, defense seems to me to be less important) and my perception of what positions are at a premium (ie. catcher). It was also challenging to remain mindful of stamina, durability, and health, which left some more talented players lower than they would have been ranked otherwise. The list is 32 long because there are 32 teams, and I like the symmetry of it. It also seems worth mentioning that, with the exception of one player, these are not players who are up in the ML yet. If this list were expanded to those prospects who are currently playing their rookie seasons, there would be at least 8 high-ranking additions to this list (for example, Alex Lee)
1. Jesse Richardson Florida Pheonix
2. Curtis Shumaker Boise Falcons
3. Cookie Beltre Vancouver Shrugging Atlases
4. Russell Martin Chicago Curse
5. Galahad Mercker Chicago Curse
6. Polin James Charlotte Cutters
7. Marc Bunning Scottsdale Force
8. Jimmie Astacio Toronto Storks
9. Jermaine Knepper Nashville Hound Dogs
10. Stevie Park Tacoma Express
11. Tim Cook Nashville Hound Dogs
12. Al Valdez Anaheim Redbirds
13. Ron Conti Texas Black Socks
14. Charlie Towers Boston Blood Sox
15. Andrea Eiland Charlotte Cutters
16. Todd Russell Richmond Hicks (Just got promoted)
17. Edwin McGowan Dover Gophers
18. Davey Galarraga Helena Brewers
19. Juan Santiago Boise Falcons
20. Yuniesky Espinoza Vancouver Shrugging Atlases
21. David Cooper Milwaukee Gurus
22. Albert Sellers Richmond Hicks
23. Matthew Carter Atlanta Braves
24. Quentin Riggs Anaheim Redbirds
25. Neil Meadows New York Mugger Funk
26. Hector Bonilla Helena Brewers
27. Brett Bell Dover Gophers
28. William Satou Memphis Elvi
29. Orber Pulido Florida Pheonix
30.Christopher Brewington Charlotte Cutters
31.Harold Diaz Charlotte Cutters
32. Cal Robertson Austin Wranglers
1. Jesse Richardson Florida Pheonix
2. Curtis Shumaker Boise Falcons
3. Cookie Beltre Vancouver Shrugging Atlases
4. Russell Martin Chicago Curse
5. Galahad Mercker Chicago Curse
6. Polin James Charlotte Cutters
7. Marc Bunning Scottsdale Force
8. Jimmie Astacio Toronto Storks
9. Jermaine Knepper Nashville Hound Dogs
10. Stevie Park Tacoma Express
11. Tim Cook Nashville Hound Dogs
12. Al Valdez Anaheim Redbirds
13. Ron Conti Texas Black Socks
14. Charlie Towers Boston Blood Sox
15. Andrea Eiland Charlotte Cutters
16. Todd Russell Richmond Hicks (Just got promoted)
17. Edwin McGowan Dover Gophers
18. Davey Galarraga Helena Brewers
19. Juan Santiago Boise Falcons
20. Yuniesky Espinoza Vancouver Shrugging Atlases
21. David Cooper Milwaukee Gurus
22. Albert Sellers Richmond Hicks
23. Matthew Carter Atlanta Braves
24. Quentin Riggs Anaheim Redbirds
25. Neil Meadows New York Mugger Funk
26. Hector Bonilla Helena Brewers
27. Brett Bell Dover Gophers
28. William Satou Memphis Elvi
29. Orber Pulido Florida Pheonix
30.Christopher Brewington Charlotte Cutters
31.Harold Diaz Charlotte Cutters
32. Cal Robertson Austin Wranglers
Monday, January 5, 2009
AL South
Durham Horseflys
Hipolito Prieto RF AAA 20 B+
Josh Donahue 2B AA 19 B+
Jimmie Ordonez RF AA 19 B-
Keith Becker RP AAA 21 B-
Javier Rincon SS AA 19 C
Nashville Hound Dogs
Jermaine Knepper SP AA 21 A
Tim Cook 2B AAA 20 A
Zeus Affeldt RF AA 20 A-
Albert Gomez SS LoA 18 B+
Sammy Martin SP AAA 21 B
Memphis Elvi
William Satou SS AA 22 A-
Carl Osborne 2B AAA 21 B+
Sid Ducey 2B AAA 21 B-
J.T. Roth 2B LoA 19 C+
Victor Rodriguez RP HiA 20 C
Texas Black Socks
Ron Conti 3B AAA 23 A
Duke Webster RF LoA 19 B+
Jacque Radke RP AA 19 B
Pat Zhang RF AAA 22 C+
J.P. Carreras SP AAA 23 C
Hipolito Prieto RF AAA 20 B+
Josh Donahue 2B AA 19 B+
Jimmie Ordonez RF AA 19 B-
Keith Becker RP AAA 21 B-
Javier Rincon SS AA 19 C
Nashville Hound Dogs
Jermaine Knepper SP AA 21 A
Tim Cook 2B AAA 20 A
Zeus Affeldt RF AA 20 A-
Albert Gomez SS LoA 18 B+
Sammy Martin SP AAA 21 B
Memphis Elvi
William Satou SS AA 22 A-
Carl Osborne 2B AAA 21 B+
Sid Ducey 2B AAA 21 B-
J.T. Roth 2B LoA 19 C+
Victor Rodriguez RP HiA 20 C
Texas Black Socks
Ron Conti 3B AAA 23 A
Duke Webster RF LoA 19 B+
Jacque Radke RP AA 19 B
Pat Zhang RF AAA 22 C+
J.P. Carreras SP AAA 23 C
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