Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Top 30 Prospects

The only person who actually sent me their list was TheJester74, and to my surprise our lists were quite different. I was tempted to change my list radically, or to simply defer to his alltogether, because averaging players' positions on our list to make a single one wouldn't produce any kind of accurate semblance of a consensus. So, first you will see my list, plainly done because you've already read my cutsie little snippits. Second is TheJester74's list, which is lengthier and provides additional dialogue on the players. When reading through this, think about the reliability of draft picks being developed sucessfully in Morgan as compared to MLB, and how that effects the game. But anyways, here we go... oh and Merry Draft Day...

1 Clint Hutton Florida AAA 3B
2 Hersh Knight Scottsdale HiA SP
3 Juan Moreno Texas HiA RF
4 Cesar Park Monterrey AA 2B
5 Rick Potvin Indianapolis HiA 2B
6 Brant McCallum Milwaukee AAA SP
7 Vic Moreno Anaheim AAA 1B
8 Mark Ramsay Milwaukee HiA DH
9 Russell Cook Sacramento AAA DH
10 Ken Lawson Scottsdale AAA SP
11 Andrew Clayton Nashville HiA RP
12 Bo Moore Minnesota HiA RP
13 Archie Gaetti Salem AAA 3B
14 Jeffrey Donovan Florida AA SS
15 Benito Valdiva Dover LoA CF
16 Raul Vega Milwaukee AAA SP
17 Carlos Ibarra Colorado HiA SP
18 Del Mercedes New York AAA SP
19 Leo Allen Cincinnati AAA 1B
20 Cliff Hogan New York AAA SP
21 Robinson Holliday Milwaukee HiA CF
22 Dan Smith St. Louis AAA SS
23 Daniel Grace Anaheim AAA CF
24 Ed Steele Santa Fe AA RF
25 Alex Durazo Fresno HiA SP
26 Rex Key St. Louis AAA CF
27 Phillip McNiel Anaheim AA 3B
28 Alex Rivas Atlanta HiA SS
29 Darryl Finley Nashville AA 1B
30 Marc Priest Texas AA RP
Glendon Sabathia Memphis LoA SP
Bartolo Pichardo Cleveland HiA SP
Phil Wathan Toronto LoA SS

And TheJester74's list copied and pasted...

1. Clint Hutton - FLA 3B/COF. It was very close as too if Hutton or Tarrasco were top. Hutton has a better bat and more power. He will hit RH pitchers better than Tarrasco. They should both be in the top 10 of the triple crown categories each season. Hutton’s career will probably most mimic Rusty Jones of Scottsdale. Tarrasco got the nod for #1 because his durability, better defense, and two years younger, but Hutton very well could end up with flashier numbers at the end of his career.

2 Archie Gaetti - Salem 3B. Gaetti is a true slugger with MVP type potential. He’s a Mike Schmidt type player and Salem will be able to build there lineup around him for years to come. What been good to see out of him is that he is really starting to blow away the competition for the first time this season.

3 Juan Moreno – Texas RF. Juan is a great slugger and has a decent glove for being such a top offensive talent. He compares favorably to Juan Gonzalez, he add a lot of pop to their lineup. I would have put him even higher on the list, but his durability is really an issue and he will have be lucky to play in 130 games.

4. JP Isringhouse – Toronto RF. I probably have this guy rated too high, but he really has superior power rating with good contact and L/R splits. What seems to set this slugger apart from others is that he has such high durability and health he really can play 160 games. He’s only 20 and he’s in high A, where he has hit 24 HRs in 38 games.. You can build a lineup around him.

5 Cesar Park – IF/COF Monterrey. Park is one of the most complete hitters on the list, he has tremendous L/R splits and batting eye, and his contact and power numbers are very good also. His secondary numbers (health, durability, and makeup) are all very nice and he has crushed every minor league pitcher he has faced.

6 Vic Moreno - Anaheim 1B. Vic will be a great pro for years to come, he should be rated 80+ on contact, power, vL, vR, and batting eye. Bat him third in any lineup he will produce great results.

7. Del Mercedes – NY SP. Almost the identical player as Leo Mackowiak (who was rated in the top 5 of this list until promoted to the Majors.) His L/R splits are not quite as good, but he has 2 superior pitches and 3 more that are very good. In 530 minor league innings he has a 1.19 WHIP and 2.44 ERA.

8 Hersch Knight – Scottsdale SP. Knight is a very raw player and has a long way to go to develop his skills, but his ceiling is almost unlimited. Control, vL, vR, velocity, GB/FG, and at least one pitch all project to the 90s. He’s only 19 and his health rating is high enough it looks like he could at least get close to developing, but he’s just so far away from his potential that it is hard to rank him higher.

9. Emil Fernandez Arizona SP. He’s a talented young SP that has quality rating in every area, doesn’t have the one dominating area, but also doesn’t have an Achilles heel either.

10 Brent McCullum – Milwaukee SP. McCullum is going to pitch in the majors for a long time. He should be able to throw 215 innings, has great command, velocity, and doesn’t give up many long balls. You wish his vR rating was a little higher, but his secondary ratings are worth bumping him up a notch or two. After very successful stints in Hi-A and AA, he put up just ok numbers in AAA in S6, this year he is back to dominating and I think will do very well when he gets the call in a season or two.

11 Dan Smith – SS St. Louis. Dan Smith is a former first pick in the draft and deserved that pick. He’s a quality player with great offensive numbers and should develop a glove that can handle being a SS. I compare him most like fellow switch hitting SS Carlos Guillen, but Smith has more power. He probably should be ranked higher, but I can’t help but wonder if he will be a great player ala Andruw Jones that never quite matches his hype.

12. Ken Lawson – Scottsdale SP. Lawson is a solid pitching prospect that is particularly tough on RH hitters, he’s got great control and the sta/dur combo that allows him to easily get 210 IPs a season.

13 Nicky Meacham - Florida RF. Meacham is listed here above many guys that have much higher OVR numbers than him, but he just fills that role of a 50 HR 125 RBI slugger that teams need. He’s not great on defense, but does it well enough that you have options of RF or 1B.

14 Jeffrey Donovan – Florida OF. Donovan does everything well, but nothing spectacular. He won’t win an MVP award but is one of those solid players that win games. I would expect his career looks like Garret Anderson’s career.

15. Phillip McNeal – Anaheim 3B. Mcneal is a switch hitter that has very nice ratings, but he seems to be one of those players that plays above his ratings, in almost 1300 career ABs he has a .356 average and a 1.131 OPS over that period. Those are very impressive numbers.

16 Dan Cortes - Indianapolis SP - I don’t expect Cortes to ever win a Cy Young award, but he should get 220+ IPs and compete in every game. Four higly rated pitches and decent splits with good control. He’ll have a long career in Morgan World.

17 Robinson Holliday – Milwaukee CF. The former first pick in the draft is a very nice player and I suspect will be an all-star. He a sure thing to make the majors and will contribute. I have probably discounted his value some because he was the first pick in the draft. When a team gets the first pick in the draft they want either an Ace SP, a slugging gold glove SS, or just a monster Doug Connelly type bat. Holliday is not the kind of player that you fear, but he will be a great contributor.

18 Andrew Clayton – Nashville RP. The only RP on the list, but he is more of an uber-RP. Usually RPs don’t pitch enough innings to be considered this high, but he has a 50 stamina and 70 durability rating. He can pitch two innings almost every other day, and do it well. This is one of the most interesting players in the game and how he is used to be the most effective will be fun to watch. Do I have him rated too high? Probably, but if they can find a way to utilize his fascinating STA/DUR ratings then he could be like Bob Appier in Chicago that won 19 games one season as an RP, and Clayton could pitch even more innings.

19 Sid Ritz – Dover SP. Ritz has great control, two very good pitches, and a rubber arm. His L/R splits are good, but not great. Still what he means to a team is pitching 240 quality innings pitches. A guy on a staff that can do that is worth an extra day of rest to a bullpen, which helps you on the days he doesn’t pitch.

20 Carson Sellers – St. Louis 2B. A steal to get this guy with the 19th pick in the draft. He has very nice power and hits for average. His defense isn’t gold glove material, but he is good enough to give his owner options as to where he can play him. I wouldn’t consider him HOF material, but he’s in that group of players right behind the superstars.

21. Alex Rivas – Atlanta SS. Rivas will be a great defensive SS for Atlanta, and he also swings a nice bat, even though his L/R splits are a little lower than you like. His power could easily be in the 35-45 HR range. His Durability and Health rating are so high, coupled with his power and defensive rating, its hard not to compare him to Cal Ripkin.

22 Eduado Merced – St. Louis SS. Merced is another guy I have problems ranking higher. He really does everything very well, and by that I mean everything. Seriously, in the top player rating section every rating project to 80s or 90s except the useless patience and temper ratings. Then in the batter ratings its all 60s, 70s, and 80s except for (again useless) push/pull ratings. So what’s not to love about him? This might just be my scouts not getting it right, but I see him as barely getting the required SS defensive ratings, and that’s if he hits 100% development and that never happens. So if he really doesn’t make it as a SS, then suddenly his value drops since he’s being compared to other 3B/2B instead of lighter hitting SS.

23 Benito Valvedia – Dover CF. He has that great combination of having great CF defense and a good bat. Looks like a perfect #2 or #3 hitter, could hit 15-25 HRs with a very high batting average

24 Rick Potvin – Indianapolis 2B – An on-base machine that can also hit 30 HRs in a season, has speed and defense. He is certainly all-star material and .420 OBP is not out of reach for him at the ML level. His glove still has a long way to develop and lags behind his bat, so I expect he will be brought up and played at something other than 2B.

25 Ed Steele RF Santa Fe. Steele is going to be a prodigious slugger, and if he gets to play in Santa Fe those could be some scary numbers he puts up every year.

26. Raul Vega – Milwaukee SP. Despite having a tough transition to AAA this season, Vega should get it straightened out and have a good ML career. He’s almost unhittable for LH batters, and he has great control. He doesn’t have a top of the line rated pitch, but all are decent. I seem him as a top notch #3 SP who gets his team 200+ IPs.

27. Jimmie Colon – Scottsdale SS. Colon does not have mind-blowing offensive numbers, but he’s got gold glove SS written all over him. He’s only 20 and he’s already very close to having a glove good enough to play ML SS. Plus his very nice L/R splits projects to hitting around .300, which is just gravy when it comes to a SS with his defensive skills.

28. Richie Mullen – Atlanta SP. He has all the ratings that point to being a star, all the critical pitching ratings are in the 70s and 80s, two highly rated pitches and three others all above 50. He’s got good makeup and he’s only 21. His Durability rating is a little lower than you like, but he’s SP material all the way. Maybe he gets it when he comes to the majors, but its curious that he still has yet to post good numbers in the minors. In 234 minor league innings he has a 1.49 WHIP and 4.84 ERA, and all but 36 innings of that is Hi-A and below. He’s got two much talent to not make it to the majors, but you wonder if he will be a Kris Benson (which wouldn’t be a horrible life to live)

29 Torey Gutierrez Ari SS – Torey will no doubt will win multiple gold gloves as SS, he’s only 21 and has by far the best glove in all the minors, and maybe one of the top two or three in the majors. Plus he hasn’t even peaked. His bat is not great, but he’s not awful. Actually he is very tough against LH pitchers.

30 Rex Key – St. Louis CF. Rex is one of the best CF prospects in the world. His range is immense and has a great glove. His offensive ratings a good, not great, but he does have a batting eye in the upper 90s. This has led to him posting a career OBP of .419.

****Honorable Mention – Guys that I was considering putting on the top 30 list.

Mark Ramsey – Milwaukee DH. I see this guy and he has Edgar Martinez written all over him. His L/R splits and batting eye are phenomenal. Sure he’s only a DH, but he can carry a team with his bat.

Happy Moore – Hartford DH. I am really torn on this guy and I wanted to put him in the top 30, his offensive numbers are off the charts and he could easily have the best OPS in the Major leagues any given season, but wouldn’t have the ABs to qualify. He’s Manny Ramirez but a DH only (currently playing in the NL) and his durability only gets him about 450 ABs.

Phil Wathan – Toronto SS. Wathan looks to be a very solid future ML player. He has a good bat and a he should be able to play SS at the ML level. Also his secondary ratings (health, durability, and makeup) are all very high.

Carlos Urbina – Boston CF. A power hitting CF. He has a career OPS over 1.000 and has speed too.

Daniel Grace - Anaheim CF. Grace is a great athlete that will be an all-star CF for years to come. He has a good power, splits, and batting eye and plays good defense.

Bartolo Pichardo – Cleveland SP. This is a pitcher that has everything going for him on the mound. Great splits, control, and very nice pitch ratings. I would love to put him higher on the list, but his STA/DUR combination really concerns me. He’ll be a 5-6 inning pitcher at best if a SP. Maybe it would be best to use him as a closer, but he is such a talent you want to get as many innings as possible.

Carlos Mesa – Chicago 1B/COF. He’d be on the list if he was younger, but I’m not sure he can reach his potential at this point.

Stan Parish – Milwaukee 1B/COF.
Henry Simmons – Sacramento 3B.
Rafael Prieto – Tor RF
Douglas Knotts – Scottsdale 1B
Dwight Forbes – Chicago SP

Bo Moore – Minnesota P. I really like this pitcher and his ratings, but his stamina is way to low to be a full time SP.

Tomas Guererro – Monterey IF. If his defense actually was good enough to be a SS he would be on the list, but it falls just a bit short. He still will be an above average
3B.Eduado Suarez – Cleveland 2B.

***Three guys that were at the top of the list – but got promoted mid-season.

Leo Mackowiak – Scottsdale SP. Leo has dominated at every level he has pitched at so far. He has great accuracy and has actually put up pretty good strikeout numbers for HBD. He is equally impressive against both LH and RH hitters, and has two highly rated pitches and two more pitches that are adequate. His weakness will be his durability, which limits his pitch count to 90-100 per game. Compares to Pedro Martinez; lights out up until 100 pitches. Promoted

JP Anderson – Sacramento 2B.

Andres Tarrasco – Monterrey IF. A truly spectacular player that should be have a HOF career. He probably won’t be able to play SS at the ML level, but otherwise he doesn’t have much of a fault. He’s a switch hitter with superior contact, power, and batting eye. He crushes LH pitchers and still is above average on RH pitchers. His health, stamina, and makeup are all high so no red flags there. The other great thing about him is he has excelled at every level he has played at.

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