Friday, March 28, 2008

Voting on George Spence

George Spence
Chicago
Knights
Age: 33B/T: S/L
Born: Durant, IA
Position(s): LF/1B/DH
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Vote in the poll now

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Best Free Agent Class


These are in a loose order about my opinion of who added the most talent in free agency.

NY-N SP Mike Andrews, OF Ben Musial, IF Tom Terrell


Mike Andrews is the largest per season contract even seen in Morgan World. Mike is certainly talented, 4 consecutive seasons of sub 4.00 ERA is very good and he will give you 200+ IPs, and while he is 32 years old it is only a 3 year contract. Its a lot of money, but I don't think it was stupid money spent. The Tom Terrell signing was ok, but I thought there were better and cheaper albeit older 2B on the market at the time. Ben Musial is a former MVP and is a monster with a bat that could end up in the HOF. He’s a bit older, but signed for a song. They got two real difference makers in free agency. They also signed a few guys that they ended up waiving or releasing already.

Anaheim – OF Albert Guzman, IF Dick Yeats, P Mack Ramirez, P Eric Franklin, CF Shane Wilson, P Tony Floyd, SS Tanner Dransfeldt

Seems like every year I write this list Anaheim is at the top. Another great free agent class, and another class that is heavy on the Geritol pills. SS Tanner Dransfeldt is a good pickup. 3B Yeats is a borderline HOF, and you have to wonder what his career numbers would look like if he got to play in his prime. He’s no longer a star though and is more of a solid contributor. Pitchers Ramirez, Floyd, and Franklin are just looking to fill a role and keep that ERA under 4.50.

Florida – SP Joel Coleman, 1B/COF Miguel Vincent, SP Donnie McFeely, C Nicholas Miller

I like the Coleman and McFeely signings. This team has talent, but it needed some SPs that could eat innings. Don’t know how much computer players benefit from it, but it can’t hurt to have Coleman’s 2 Cy Young awards in your rotation. Obviously this team has some spare payroll though, because I have a hard time finding out how/why they committed $15M total contract to Vincent.

Indianapolis – SP Ted Stoops, RP Quinton Ventrella.

Stoops is a quality innings eater. He will do nothing but help this team, but he did sign a pretty large 5 year contract and has a career 5.04 ERA. Indy doesn’t have much committed to payroll right now, so it is not an awful contract. Personally I like the $50M total contract that NY-N spent on Mike Andrews more than the $46M total contract committed to Stoops. I realize the terms are different, but for similar total value Andrews is a Cy Young candidate and Stoops is just a good solid pitcher.

LV – C/PH Ozzie Daugherty, SP Hector Romero, RP Dusty Blake

SP Romero will do well for this team. He’s an interesting pitcher with some of the best pitcher ratings in the league, but he has poor control. So what you get is a roller coaster of performances during the season. He will pitch a 9 Inning 3 hit shutout with 13Ks, and follow it up with 2.2 IPs 6BB and 7 ER. Blake is a decent RP, and C/PH Daugherty still has a good bat.

Memphis CF Felipe Onteveras, SS Alfredo Gonzalez

Memphis is working to bolster their defense with two light hitting great defense guys.

Augusta – SP BC Sierra, SP Al Gutierrez, P Louis Maxwell, RP Marc Wayne.

Augusta was able to re-sign some of their big name pitchers and picked up a quality RP/CLA in Marc Wayne.

Cleveland – COF Vic Saenz, P Andy Lowe

Cleveland picked up 2 time all-star Vic Saenz. He is getting older, but still can hit. Saenz reminds me of Darrin Erstad.

Nashville - SP Ozzie Hines, SP Curtis Greenwood.

Not a spectacular pair of FA SPs, but they fill a void until the prospects arrive. They might even outperform some of the higher priced FA in our league

NY-A SP Vin Lee, 2B Dan West, RF Earnest Strange

NY with its loaded team didn't need to find a star as much as they needed to find depth. West is a former all-star, but at 35 he will be asked to play a roll instead of having to carry to the team. At $3M per it was a very good signing. Lee is another former all-star that will fill a need for this team, but double digit wins is unlikely.

Texas - SP Gil Kwon

After a breakout year in Season 6 when he pitched 247 IPs with a 3.86, season 7 was a disapointment for Kwon. Texas got the 31 year old Kwon for a good price and hopes he bounces back.

Albuquerque – SS Erubiel Valdes, 1B Jon Zentmeyer. Signed a quality defensive SS in Valdes and a pretty good slugger in Zentmeyer who should hit .290/35/110

Monday, March 24, 2008

Predictions for S8


Picks #1 Picks #2 Picks #3
NL North Cleveland Augusta Cleveland
NL East Hartford San Juan San Juan
NL South Atlanta Houston Atlanta
NL West Anaheim Anaheim Arizona
NL WC San Juan Hartford Houston
NL WC Monterrey Atlanta Anaheim




AL North Minnesota Milwaukee Minnesota
AL East NY NY NY
AL South Memphis Little Rock Memphis
AL West Vancouver Vancouver Vancouver
AL WC Little Rock Chicago Florida
AL WC Chicago Memphis Sacramento

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Legends Voting (HOF)

If you are a member of legends committee please vote in the poll about Doug Connelly.

Doug Connelly
Arizona
Scottsdale
Age: 33B/T: S/L
Born: Tohatchi, NM
Position(s): 1B/LF
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Friday, February 29, 2008

Legends of Morgan (HOF)

Season 8 will be the inaugural season of the Legends of Morgan; an owner driven version of Morgan's Hall of Fame. Part of the reason behind not naming it the Morgan World HOF is that we will be voting on active players, and if a HOF is ever instituted by WifS it could cause confusion if we had two HOF.

What is being proposed is that a group of Morgan owners commits to voting on players nominated by the league. We would aim to get 75% approval from the Legends/HOF Committee for a player to be accepted.

To nominate a player an owner will post a link to the player and state he is being nominated on the World Chat section. If another owner seconds the nomination the player is then eligible to be voted on by the committee. This process will keep the committee from spending time discussing players that plainly do not belong in the discussion. Seconding a players nomination doesn’t mean that you would definitely vote that player in, but you think he at least deserves to be discussed.

One issue we will be dealing with is players that the world was created and some very good players were in the middle of their careers and will never have career totals that approach a guy that played since he was 23. At the same time we cannot ignore career totals, and being great for one or two seasons does not make a HOF career. At the very least the committee needs to see a 5 season average of what a player did.

- A player can only be nominated once per season.

- A player can be nominated by any owner

- The nominating owner should provide info about the player. Summary of awards, statistical achievements (world top 5 list), average seasons stats for at least a 5 season threshold or more. This is while not required will help the committee.

- There will be an age requirement

- Voting will be done of the league blog by the committee members.

- All Morgan owners are eligible to be on the committee, the requirement being that do your utmost to at least vote on all the players that come up for a vote and you try to be fair with your vote.

The Legends of Morgan/HOF is not completely finalized yet so this list is not law, please feel free to offer up any opinions to the group. Also let me know via trade chat or sitemail if you want to be part of the voting committee.

Finally this is something that is being done to add an interesting element to the game, but everyone has opinions. If you nominate a player realize there could be a discussion about him. Other owners have might have different criteria for what they think deserves induction, people are free to feel certain players don’t deserve induction. And voters please avoid incendiary comments about other owner’s players, use stats or to a lesser extent ratings to backup any views about them not deserving induction.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Congrats to Boston


Boston won the championship in thrilling fashion. Rock Gardner hit a walk-off 2-run homer in the bottom of the 10th inning of game 5 of the World Series. This was after Vin Lee threw his second gem of the World Series. In 2 games and 16 innings he gave 1 run.

Boston also won game 4 in the 10th inning. In game 4 Wes Davies hit a single in the 10th inning, stole second when the throw to second sailed into the bleachers. Then Enrique Ruiz (admittedly not primarily a 3b) botched a routine grounder and Davies came home to score the winning run.

Thanks to everyone for another great year in Morgan. Hope to see you next season.

Vin Lee
Boston
Blood Sox
Age: 34B/T: R/R
Born: Caracas, VE
Position(s): P (SP2)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

S7 Pitching Stats

Name Wins WHIP ERA
Scottsdale Mad Jesters 114 1.32 4.33
Washington War Criminals 93 1.36 4.37
Cleveland Stormtroopers 87 1.38 4.51
Houston Texans 104 1.48 4.71
Salem mad monks 83 1.40 4.75
Anaheim Redbirds 95 1.44 4.76
Sacramento Air Force 100 1.37 4.77
New York Mugger Funk 107 1.34 4.78
Chicago Knights 90 1.42 4.79
Atlanta Braves 92 1.42 4.83
Minnesota St. Paul Sots 87 1.45 4.89
St. Louis Melon Farmers 72 1.43 4.97
Toronto Storks 87 1.47 5.00
Boston Blood Sox 90 1.49 5.00
Las Vegas Gamblers 78 1.53 5.02
Memphis Elvi 89 1.45 5.04
Austin Wranglers 78 1.45 5.06
Hartford Harpoons 90 1.46 5.09
Arizona Scottsdale 89 1.55 5.44
New Britain Claymores 68 1.55 5.45
Cincinnati Reds 58 1.49 5.46
Wichita Twisters 62 1.62 5.57
Fresno Grizzlies 72 1.56 5.77
Dover Gophers 74 1.55 5.80
Santa Fe Locomotive 79 1.58 5.95
Texas Black Socks 73 1.59 5.96
Milwaukee Gurus 66 1.58 5.98
Monterrey Habaneros 66 1.64 6.13
Nashville Hound Dogs 68 1.66 6.29
Indianapolis Hoosierdaddies 66 1.66 6.32
Florida Phoenix 56 1.60 6.33
Colorado Funky Back Beats 59 1.90 8.12

S7 Hitting Stats

Name Runs HRs AVG OPS
Scottsdale Mad Jesters 1227 419 0.306 0.962
Houston Texans 1120 254 0.306 0.884
New York Mugger Funk 1073 247 0.300 0.858
Arizona Scottsdale 1066 319 0.291 0.881
Colorado Funky Back Beats 1023 248 0.303 0.852
Atlanta Braves 1017 215 0.291 0.817
Texas Black Socks 993 319 0.283 0.859
Sacramento Air Force 982 343 0.281 0.861
Chicago Knights 962 239 0.289 0.816
Santa Fe Locomotive 962 276 0.285 0.839
Hartford Harpoons 942 257 0.282 0.823
Nashville Hound Dogs 931 202 0.278 0.788
Dover Gophers 926 207 0.282 0.801
Anaheim Redbirds 924 240 0.275 0.797
Memphis Elvi 923 266 0.270 0.801
Washington War Criminals 922 226 0.282 0.795
Boston Blood Sox 912 231 0.285 0.814
Austin Wranglers 911 220 0.284 0.802
Minnesota St. Paul Sots 905 243 0.278 0.815
Toronto Storks 902 220 0.287 0.812
Monterrey Habaneros 899 234 0.282 0.805
Indianapolis Hoosierdaddies 869 223 0.276 0.781
Salem mad monks 867 253 0.285 0.829
Las Vegas Gamblers 851 243 0.280 0.802
New Britain Claymores 836 286 0.265 0.785
Cleveland Stormtroopers 825 186 0.273 0.760
Milwaukee Gurus 804 231 0.273 0.776
Fresno Grizzlies 777 199 0.258 0.744
Florida Phoenix 771 155 0.279 0.755
St. Louis Melon Farmers 758 213 0.258 0.749
Wichita Twisters 754 196 0.261 0.750
Cincinnati Reds 734 199 0.261 0.727

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

S7 Playoffs rankings

Name - Run Difference - Offense rank - Pitching Rank
Chicago +125 9th 9th
NY +268 3rd 8th
Washington +184 16th 2nd
Memphis +58 15th 16th
Scottsdale +463 1st 1st
Sacrament +167 8th 7th
Toronto +44 20th 13th
Atlanta +162 6th 10th
Houston +291 2nd 4th
Anaheim +132 14th 6th
Hartford +60 11th 18th
Boston +68 17th 14th

Sunday, January 20, 2008

If the playoffs started today...

First, take a look at our predictions from the beginning of the season: http://hbd-morgan.blogspot.com/2007/12/division-winner-and-wildcard.html .

NL North: Cleveland Cleveland Stormtroopers
NL East: Boston Blood Sox
NL South: Houston Texans
NL West: Las Vegas Gamblers
NL Wildcard 1: Hartford Harpoons
NL Wildcard 2: Atlanta Braves/Anaheim Redbirds (I forget the tiebreaker rules)

AL North: Chicago Knights
AL East: New York Mugger Funk
AL South: Memphis Elvi
AL West: Scottsdale Mad Jester
AL Wildcard 1: Sacramento Air Force
AL Wildcard 2: Washington D.C. War Criminals

AL is the tougher league to make the playoffs by 8 games at this point. The two one seeds would be Scottsdale and Houston (Oh and Houston has less wins than Washington).

Top teams at each level by record:

AAA: New Britain
AA: Scottsdale
HiA: Washingtond D.C.
LoA: Houston
RL: Anaheim

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Draft Recap - S7

Anaheim - Due to free agency Anaheim had 5 picks in the first 40 picks in the draft. Their first 9 picks were all pitchers. The got a future closer in Brantley. Another Closer/Setup in Tony Andrews. With picks #29, #38, and #39 Anaheim got three very similar pitcher. All seem to have decent enough ratings to get to the majors, but none of them have those ideal STA/DUR combos to anchor a rotation. In all I think 7 of their pitchers have a chance to make the ML (which is phenomenal), but I usually don't think a teams first two picks should be RPs.

Arizona - Got a quality 2B in Malcolm Christopher who has above average glove and bat. He also has 100 speed rating, but coupled with mediocre base running skills you wonder what difference the speed will make. SP Kipling and RP Santiago both have a good chance to make the majors,

Atlanta - Their first two picks Joe Welsh and Ben Damon are both quality pitchers. Welsh could have 4 pitches rated over 60 and one of those over 90. When you pick late in the first round though your highly rated pitchers almost always have a flaw and both of them do not have ideal stamina. Lopez is a fine OF, and Gonzales could be a RP can give you 45 IPs from the setup B role.

Austin - Hank Simmons is a true MVP type player, I would rate him someone above Yamid Sierra but not quite Carlos Johnson. Both of those guys are first basemen though, and Simmons actually can play defense enough to be a 3B or quality OF. He does have a potentially fatal flaw, and that is his very poor health rating. Hopefully we never have to do a "what if he had stayed healthy" report on him. Cy Purcell is a ok hitter, but doesn't look like he could make the majors as a SS. RP Roberts is decent, except his pitch ratings are barely average.

Boston - Dennis Perez is a great pickup at #13. He has phenomenal power and good L/R splits. His glove is versatile enough that you have places to play him. He compares well to Vance Damon of Chicago, so he can expect lots of all-star snubs too. Perez unfortunately has a little lower durability than you would like in a star. Buck Perkins and Ricardo Padilla look to be good RPs, but Padilla's STA/DUR is really going to limit him to an inning every 4 days.

Chicago - Didn't have a first round pick until #51 due to the Daniel Malone signing. At 51 they picked up Kevin Carter. He looks a hair below ideal range for a SS, but other than that it should be ok as a defensive SS. His bat is a little light, so he might end up as the teams ML backup SS. 2nd round pick Hal Throneberry is a 2B with an average bat.

Cincinnati - Juan Colome looks like a true star in the making, every offensive rating project to at least upper 80s except vR, and that is in the 70s. I don't see his 3rd round pick, but he's asking for $8.5 and that is not a good sign. Not too many 3rd rounders are worth that. In the 4th and 5th round Cincy picked up 2 very good defensive SS, with light bats, which I think is a great use of those rounds.

Cleveland - Tenidad Gomez is a solid SP that could end up being a #2 or #3 in the rotation. His stamina is a little low, but he got a very good durability for a SP that should overcome some of that. He's got pitches in the 90s, 80s, and 70s, with three good pitches and fourth pitch to go along with his great control and good splits he should do well. Pick #34 was a defensive wizard CF Wagner, who has great L/R splits. Zimmer will make the majors, I like my 1B to have a little more power, he's more of a Sean Casey/John Olerud type guy. I like his 2nd round pick Zapata and see him a quality contributor for a long time.

Colorado - SP Graves will be an anchor for their rotation for a long time. He's got everything you want in an SP, he's doesn't have those mind-blowing ratings in the 85+ range, but just as important every rating is solid and he doesn't have a weakness. SP Becker is good, but his pitch ratings are a little lower than you like. I also like his switch hitting CF Castillo.

Dover - Has some signing issues in a few of his guys. Rob Forest swings a nice bat, but I really am not sure he can make it defensively as a SS. Vin Jacobs is a masher who won't have great OBP, but with hit 40-50 HRs. I can't see three of his other players, but pick #61 is asking for $6.5M.

Florida - Chazzzzz is starting to get quite a stack of all-stars. Usually I would not suggest getting a catcher with the first pick, but Gerald Bradley look to be quite a catch (look what milbredhawk started with his puns.) He reminds me of a Joe Mauer or Scottsdale's Kyle Forrest (with a little less power.) He's that rare HBD catcher that has a quality bat, quality catcher skills, and high durability. 2nd Rounder Ray Anderson has a very nice glove, and a good bat to go with a great batting eye and some speed. CF Griffith has a great glove. I actually like his 5th round pitcher better than his 4th rounder.

Fresno - They had the #3 pick in the draft, although I did not scout SP Hinske, it has been reported he is very good. Right now though he is holding out. 2B Darren Prior has a nice glove, but I expect at the ML level he plays the OF. Kenny Hill and Julio Miranda are both good glove CF/2B types that have adequate ML bats. Looks like the 2B/CF area is covered for a while in Fresno.

Hartford - Got a good slugging 3B Maxwell that should have a good BA, he's going to be an RBI machine for this team. Juan Solano is one of those monster power guys with a great BE, but he's really a DH so it looks like NL based Hartford is going to try him at 1B. He would hit 60 HRs at Hartford. 3B Branson and RF Manning are both solid players that don't do anything spectacular.

Houston - Another team that went all-in when it came to pitchers as his first 8 picks were pitchers. Len Phelps looks like a star in the making. He's got phenomenal L/R splits, to go along with very good control and pitch ratings. He can be an Ace on a staff, but like a number of SPs this year his STA/DUR combo is a little lower than you like. He looks like a 190 IP guy. 2nd rounder Miller has nice ratings, but will probably end up as a LRA.

Indianapolis - Stone Rivera is holding out right now, but I expect him to sign. He's got great ratings all around and is a franchise player. He is a true 5 tool type player. Pick #33 SP Prieto can pitch 220 IPs, but not sure if his L/R splits are going to be high enough to make the majors. Their next three picks Lofton, Mateo, and Dillon all have a chance to make the majors. I really like 3B Dillon's numbers for a 4th round pick.

Las Vegas - For the second season in a row Vegas has picked up a star SP in the first round. He doesn't have any of those pitching red flags, and he has 4 pitchers that should rate in the upper 70s. Picked pitchers until the 10th round, but their low scouting budget showed up in the later rounds. Used some of their draft picks wisely on some great FA pickups, I think most teams would trade their deeper drafts to get their hands on Gilbert.

Memphis - Got a solid player in Chris Yates. He does everything pretty good, but what could push him up into the list of good first round pick is those secondary ratings like durability, health, and makeup which all rate very high. It was a pretty well rounded first 5 rounds, got a SP and decent RP in the 5th round.

Milwaukee - I'll start off by saying I am not a fan of picking up closer type RPs with a top 10 pick in the draft. It is such a volatile position in HBD and in my opinion the hardest position to predict success even for veteran pitchers. Then closers might only affect 50 IPs a season so it is hard to make a case for them over 200 IPs SPs and 550 AB sluggers available at this spot. But since it is so unpredictable, if Milwaukee was able to find the Marianno Rivera of Morgan World and for 12 seasons this guy gives them 40+ saves with 1.10 WHIP, 2.25 ERA and solidifies the closers spot they will be happy with this pick. I do think he is the best closer I have seen in the draft. All the crucial number are in the 90s, his stamina is high enough to actually pitch an entire inning, and durability means he is ready almost every other game. I consider this the riskiest pick in the entire draft, but at the same time it could pay off very big. Bingo LeCroy is another quality RP, but his low STA/DUR will keep him from being an all-star. Shortstops Friend and Rushford both have decent bats, but their range is low for SS. For the 5th round Landrum is a good SP, he has very good STA/DUR numbers, and the very nice pitch ratings could overcome the lower L/R splits.

Minnesota - Didn't get a pick until #44, where they got a Juan Pierre like CF in Clint Clemens. He has a good glove, and great speed, but the bat is a little light. His next pick Reitz is almost the twin of his first pick.

Monterrey - I can't see is first pick Albert Sellers, but if he's 23 picks better than his supplemental pick he has to be something good. CF Tavarez is a very nice pick and one of the best CF in the draft, add to the fact that he was pick #35 and this was a steal. 3B Griffin is another solid well rounded player, while JD Loux is a pure power hitter. 4th rounder Yamamoto is a solid hitter, but he is really on a DH.

Nashville - SS Dickie Baxter is just a bit below ideal defensive numbers at SS, but his bat is so strong he is valuable wherever he ends up playing. The next four picks were pitchers, but their L/R splits are a little lower than I like.

New Britain - Steve Miceli is a solid all-round baseball player. He swings a bat that does everything well, but nothing excellent. Same for his glove, he probably won't be able to play SS at the ML level but he does have versatility. Pick #46 swings a similarly good bat, but is not nearly as versatile with the glove. Torres was a nice pick at #105, I can seem him as very nice leadoff hitter. He could bat .280 with 45+ steals. Cameron can smack around LH pitchers, so he might end up a great 1/2 of a platoon.

NY - Cortez is great bat and will produce big things in that Funk lineup. He has excellent L/R splits, and enough power to hit 25-30 HRs. He also has great secondary ratings (the health, durability, and makeup) They also got a great leadoff hitter/CF in Whitman. He is a 40 SB kind of guy that can get on base. His next three picks all have a decent chance of contributing the ML level. I think NY really benefited from so many teams focusing on pitching in the draft they got some position players that project better than their draft slot.

Sacramento - Butch Hoffman has a good bat, but his glove probably won't be good enough to play SS in the majors. Still his range is good enough to maybe play CF. Ricardo Martin could be the best hitter in the draft, but he is a DH only kind of guy. I think Sacramento is pushing to allow 3 DHs in the game for future seasons. Picks #65 Groom, #74 Knight, and #106 Speaker I also consider major league material and certainly scout as high quality for where they were drafted.

Salem - This was a tough draft for Salem. I think they had the worst "first pick" position in the draft due to signing Brian Scott (who has done very well.) Couple that with going the "only draft pitchers" until rd 8 strategy that some other teams employed and well most of the good SPs were gone by their first pick.

Santa Fe - I really like the Dickie Snyder pickup. He's a solid #2 or #3 SP (which is the best you can hope for when picking in the 20s) his splits are above average, but he has two pitches over 70 and all five are over 50. He's got good control and GB/FB ratio which are key to success in Santa Fe. They got a great defensive C with pick #45, and his power could even project to HR totals in the 40s. Buzz Kramer could be a decent RP, and Beltre has solid hitting numbers if he could crack Santa Fe's solid lineup.

Scottsdale - With the last pick in the first round Scottsdale picked Kennie Mullin, he's a quality SP with good control and L/R splits. One pitch hits the upper 90s, and two more are above 60. Obviously he fell due to his less than ideal STA/DUR combo and health, but he might get 190-200 IPs a season. After that is Thurman Robbins who could be a good ML starter, but he is very raw and has a lot of room to grow before he will make it. RP Carrasquel has good control and two great pitches, but his L/R splits are mediocre. David Taylor is a dark horse to one day be a 5th starter at the ML level/

St. Louis. A peculiar draft. He has yet to sign any players before round 17. I only scouted one of his top 5 players and he won't sign. Hopefully he at least makes offer to some of these guys.

Texas - Pierzynski is one of the most complete hitters in the draft, contact, power, vL, vR, and BE all project above 80. You can build a lineup around this guy and I am sure he will be an all-star. I think Trujillo who is a ok defensive C with a decent bat was picked a bit early. But then at picks #91 and #123 they picked up some very good RPs that should be quality players. Very few people must have scouted them because I was surprised guys that talented were still left on the board.

Toronto - Ramon Martin has pretty average L/R splits, but his speed, contact, power, and batting eye are all very strong. I haven't seen many player that are good at everything except L/R splits so it will be interesting to find out what his production looks like. 2nd round and 3rd round picks Joel Branson and Billy Hamill both are good hitters, but that is not much diversity in their top 3 picks.

DC - Picked up a very nice power hitter in Rudy Lee, he is going to tear LH pitchers up. Then picked up one of the best defensive SS in the game, who has enough of a bat to get him to the big leagues. Then must have picked up 1st round pick Rudy's brother in Tony Lee, another RF that kills RH pitchers. There is an outside chance SP Arias makes the big, but it will be a back of the rotation kind of guy.

Wichita - Jumbo Alfonseca will be a SP at the major league level for many years, he has good control and respectable splits. Still with a top 10 pick I think most people are hoping to land a much stronger SP. To be honest I'm not sure if I don't like SP Jesse Reynolds who they got with at #50 better than pick #7. In the 5th round they got a decent CF in Herb Christensen. In round 4 they took a flyer on SS Bartolo Cruz. He says he won't sign and is asking for $5M for the 122th pick in the draft. His glove is outstanding and is probably just a couple of points away from being the best SS glove in the draft. His bat is good enough to keep him in the majors with that glove. Usually past the supplemental round the occasional outrageous contract demands players ask for are an easy "No thanks" choice for owners, but I can see this guy getting signed for $5M as an IFA. If no great IFAs come by signing him might be a good option

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Top 30 Prospects

The only person who actually sent me their list was TheJester74, and to my surprise our lists were quite different. I was tempted to change my list radically, or to simply defer to his alltogether, because averaging players' positions on our list to make a single one wouldn't produce any kind of accurate semblance of a consensus. So, first you will see my list, plainly done because you've already read my cutsie little snippits. Second is TheJester74's list, which is lengthier and provides additional dialogue on the players. When reading through this, think about the reliability of draft picks being developed sucessfully in Morgan as compared to MLB, and how that effects the game. But anyways, here we go... oh and Merry Draft Day...


1 Clint Hutton Florida AAA 3B
2 Hersh Knight Scottsdale HiA SP
3 Juan Moreno Texas HiA RF
4 Cesar Park Monterrey AA 2B
5 Rick Potvin Indianapolis HiA 2B
6 Brant McCallum Milwaukee AAA SP
7 Vic Moreno Anaheim AAA 1B
8 Mark Ramsay Milwaukee HiA DH
9 Russell Cook Sacramento AAA DH
10 Ken Lawson Scottsdale AAA SP
11 Andrew Clayton Nashville HiA RP
12 Bo Moore Minnesota HiA RP
13 Archie Gaetti Salem AAA 3B
14 Jeffrey Donovan Florida AA SS
15 Benito Valdiva Dover LoA CF
16 Raul Vega Milwaukee AAA SP
17 Carlos Ibarra Colorado HiA SP
18 Del Mercedes New York AAA SP
19 Leo Allen Cincinnati AAA 1B
20 Cliff Hogan New York AAA SP
21 Robinson Holliday Milwaukee HiA CF
22 Dan Smith St. Louis AAA SS
23 Daniel Grace Anaheim AAA CF
24 Ed Steele Santa Fe AA RF
25 Alex Durazo Fresno HiA SP
26 Rex Key St. Louis AAA CF
27 Phillip McNiel Anaheim AA 3B
28 Alex Rivas Atlanta HiA SS
29 Darryl Finley Nashville AA 1B
30 Marc Priest Texas AA RP
Glendon Sabathia Memphis LoA SP
Bartolo Pichardo Cleveland HiA SP
Phil Wathan Toronto LoA SS


And TheJester74's list copied and pasted...

1. Clint Hutton - FLA 3B/COF. It was very close as too if Hutton or Tarrasco were top. Hutton has a better bat and more power. He will hit RH pitchers better than Tarrasco. They should both be in the top 10 of the triple crown categories each season. Hutton’s career will probably most mimic Rusty Jones of Scottsdale. Tarrasco got the nod for #1 because his durability, better defense, and two years younger, but Hutton very well could end up with flashier numbers at the end of his career.

2 Archie Gaetti - Salem 3B. Gaetti is a true slugger with MVP type potential. He’s a Mike Schmidt type player and Salem will be able to build there lineup around him for years to come. What been good to see out of him is that he is really starting to blow away the competition for the first time this season.

3 Juan Moreno – Texas RF. Juan is a great slugger and has a decent glove for being such a top offensive talent. He compares favorably to Juan Gonzalez, he add a lot of pop to their lineup. I would have put him even higher on the list, but his durability is really an issue and he will have be lucky to play in 130 games.

4. JP Isringhouse – Toronto RF. I probably have this guy rated too high, but he really has superior power rating with good contact and L/R splits. What seems to set this slugger apart from others is that he has such high durability and health he really can play 160 games. He’s only 20 and he’s in high A, where he has hit 24 HRs in 38 games.. You can build a lineup around him.

5 Cesar Park – IF/COF Monterrey. Park is one of the most complete hitters on the list, he has tremendous L/R splits and batting eye, and his contact and power numbers are very good also. His secondary numbers (health, durability, and makeup) are all very nice and he has crushed every minor league pitcher he has faced.

6 Vic Moreno - Anaheim 1B. Vic will be a great pro for years to come, he should be rated 80+ on contact, power, vL, vR, and batting eye. Bat him third in any lineup he will produce great results.

7. Del Mercedes – NY SP. Almost the identical player as Leo Mackowiak (who was rated in the top 5 of this list until promoted to the Majors.) His L/R splits are not quite as good, but he has 2 superior pitches and 3 more that are very good. In 530 minor league innings he has a 1.19 WHIP and 2.44 ERA.

8 Hersch Knight – Scottsdale SP. Knight is a very raw player and has a long way to go to develop his skills, but his ceiling is almost unlimited. Control, vL, vR, velocity, GB/FG, and at least one pitch all project to the 90s. He’s only 19 and his health rating is high enough it looks like he could at least get close to developing, but he’s just so far away from his potential that it is hard to rank him higher.

9. Emil Fernandez Arizona SP. He’s a talented young SP that has quality rating in every area, doesn’t have the one dominating area, but also doesn’t have an Achilles heel either.

10 Brent McCullum – Milwaukee SP. McCullum is going to pitch in the majors for a long time. He should be able to throw 215 innings, has great command, velocity, and doesn’t give up many long balls. You wish his vR rating was a little higher, but his secondary ratings are worth bumping him up a notch or two. After very successful stints in Hi-A and AA, he put up just ok numbers in AAA in S6, this year he is back to dominating and I think will do very well when he gets the call in a season or two.

11 Dan Smith – SS St. Louis. Dan Smith is a former first pick in the draft and deserved that pick. He’s a quality player with great offensive numbers and should develop a glove that can handle being a SS. I compare him most like fellow switch hitting SS Carlos Guillen, but Smith has more power. He probably should be ranked higher, but I can’t help but wonder if he will be a great player ala Andruw Jones that never quite matches his hype.

12. Ken Lawson – Scottsdale SP. Lawson is a solid pitching prospect that is particularly tough on RH hitters, he’s got great control and the sta/dur combo that allows him to easily get 210 IPs a season.

13 Nicky Meacham - Florida RF. Meacham is listed here above many guys that have much higher OVR numbers than him, but he just fills that role of a 50 HR 125 RBI slugger that teams need. He’s not great on defense, but does it well enough that you have options of RF or 1B.

14 Jeffrey Donovan – Florida OF. Donovan does everything well, but nothing spectacular. He won’t win an MVP award but is one of those solid players that win games. I would expect his career looks like Garret Anderson’s career.

15. Phillip McNeal – Anaheim 3B. Mcneal is a switch hitter that has very nice ratings, but he seems to be one of those players that plays above his ratings, in almost 1300 career ABs he has a .356 average and a 1.131 OPS over that period. Those are very impressive numbers.

16 Dan Cortes - Indianapolis SP - I don’t expect Cortes to ever win a Cy Young award, but he should get 220+ IPs and compete in every game. Four higly rated pitches and decent splits with good control. He’ll have a long career in Morgan World.

17 Robinson Holliday – Milwaukee CF. The former first pick in the draft is a very nice player and I suspect will be an all-star. He a sure thing to make the majors and will contribute. I have probably discounted his value some because he was the first pick in the draft. When a team gets the first pick in the draft they want either an Ace SP, a slugging gold glove SS, or just a monster Doug Connelly type bat. Holliday is not the kind of player that you fear, but he will be a great contributor.

18 Andrew Clayton – Nashville RP. The only RP on the list, but he is more of an uber-RP. Usually RPs don’t pitch enough innings to be considered this high, but he has a 50 stamina and 70 durability rating. He can pitch two innings almost every other day, and do it well. This is one of the most interesting players in the game and how he is used to be the most effective will be fun to watch. Do I have him rated too high? Probably, but if they can find a way to utilize his fascinating STA/DUR ratings then he could be like Bob Appier in Chicago that won 19 games one season as an RP, and Clayton could pitch even more innings.

19 Sid Ritz – Dover SP. Ritz has great control, two very good pitches, and a rubber arm. His L/R splits are good, but not great. Still what he means to a team is pitching 240 quality innings pitches. A guy on a staff that can do that is worth an extra day of rest to a bullpen, which helps you on the days he doesn’t pitch.

20 Carson Sellers – St. Louis 2B. A steal to get this guy with the 19th pick in the draft. He has very nice power and hits for average. His defense isn’t gold glove material, but he is good enough to give his owner options as to where he can play him. I wouldn’t consider him HOF material, but he’s in that group of players right behind the superstars.

21. Alex Rivas – Atlanta SS. Rivas will be a great defensive SS for Atlanta, and he also swings a nice bat, even though his L/R splits are a little lower than you like. His power could easily be in the 35-45 HR range. His Durability and Health rating are so high, coupled with his power and defensive rating, its hard not to compare him to Cal Ripkin.

22 Eduado Merced – St. Louis SS. Merced is another guy I have problems ranking higher. He really does everything very well, and by that I mean everything. Seriously, in the top player rating section every rating project to 80s or 90s except the useless patience and temper ratings. Then in the batter ratings its all 60s, 70s, and 80s except for (again useless) push/pull ratings. So what’s not to love about him? This might just be my scouts not getting it right, but I see him as barely getting the required SS defensive ratings, and that’s if he hits 100% development and that never happens. So if he really doesn’t make it as a SS, then suddenly his value drops since he’s being compared to other 3B/2B instead of lighter hitting SS.

23 Benito Valvedia – Dover CF. He has that great combination of having great CF defense and a good bat. Looks like a perfect #2 or #3 hitter, could hit 15-25 HRs with a very high batting average

24 Rick Potvin – Indianapolis 2B – An on-base machine that can also hit 30 HRs in a season, has speed and defense. He is certainly all-star material and .420 OBP is not out of reach for him at the ML level. His glove still has a long way to develop and lags behind his bat, so I expect he will be brought up and played at something other than 2B.

25 Ed Steele RF Santa Fe. Steele is going to be a prodigious slugger, and if he gets to play in Santa Fe those could be some scary numbers he puts up every year.

26. Raul Vega – Milwaukee SP. Despite having a tough transition to AAA this season, Vega should get it straightened out and have a good ML career. He’s almost unhittable for LH batters, and he has great control. He doesn’t have a top of the line rated pitch, but all are decent. I seem him as a top notch #3 SP who gets his team 200+ IPs.

27. Jimmie Colon – Scottsdale SS. Colon does not have mind-blowing offensive numbers, but he’s got gold glove SS written all over him. He’s only 20 and he’s already very close to having a glove good enough to play ML SS. Plus his very nice L/R splits projects to hitting around .300, which is just gravy when it comes to a SS with his defensive skills.

28. Richie Mullen – Atlanta SP. He has all the ratings that point to being a star, all the critical pitching ratings are in the 70s and 80s, two highly rated pitches and three others all above 50. He’s got good makeup and he’s only 21. His Durability rating is a little lower than you like, but he’s SP material all the way. Maybe he gets it when he comes to the majors, but its curious that he still has yet to post good numbers in the minors. In 234 minor league innings he has a 1.49 WHIP and 4.84 ERA, and all but 36 innings of that is Hi-A and below. He’s got two much talent to not make it to the majors, but you wonder if he will be a Kris Benson (which wouldn’t be a horrible life to live)

29 Torey Gutierrez Ari SS – Torey will no doubt will win multiple gold gloves as SS, he’s only 21 and has by far the best glove in all the minors, and maybe one of the top two or three in the majors. Plus he hasn’t even peaked. His bat is not great, but he’s not awful. Actually he is very tough against LH pitchers.

30 Rex Key – St. Louis CF. Rex is one of the best CF prospects in the world. His range is immense and has a great glove. His offensive ratings a good, not great, but he does have a batting eye in the upper 90s. This has led to him posting a career OBP of .419.

****Honorable Mention – Guys that I was considering putting on the top 30 list.

Mark Ramsey – Milwaukee DH. I see this guy and he has Edgar Martinez written all over him. His L/R splits and batting eye are phenomenal. Sure he’s only a DH, but he can carry a team with his bat.

Happy Moore – Hartford DH. I am really torn on this guy and I wanted to put him in the top 30, his offensive numbers are off the charts and he could easily have the best OPS in the Major leagues any given season, but wouldn’t have the ABs to qualify. He’s Manny Ramirez but a DH only (currently playing in the NL) and his durability only gets him about 450 ABs.

Phil Wathan – Toronto SS. Wathan looks to be a very solid future ML player. He has a good bat and a he should be able to play SS at the ML level. Also his secondary ratings (health, durability, and makeup) are all very high.

Carlos Urbina – Boston CF. A power hitting CF. He has a career OPS over 1.000 and has speed too.

Daniel Grace - Anaheim CF. Grace is a great athlete that will be an all-star CF for years to come. He has a good power, splits, and batting eye and plays good defense.

Bartolo Pichardo – Cleveland SP. This is a pitcher that has everything going for him on the mound. Great splits, control, and very nice pitch ratings. I would love to put him higher on the list, but his STA/DUR combination really concerns me. He’ll be a 5-6 inning pitcher at best if a SP. Maybe it would be best to use him as a closer, but he is such a talent you want to get as many innings as possible.

Carlos Mesa – Chicago 1B/COF. He’d be on the list if he was younger, but I’m not sure he can reach his potential at this point.

Stan Parish – Milwaukee 1B/COF.
Henry Simmons – Sacramento 3B.
Rafael Prieto – Tor RF
Douglas Knotts – Scottsdale 1B
Dwight Forbes – Chicago SP

Bo Moore – Minnesota P. I really like this pitcher and his ratings, but his stamina is way to low to be a full time SP.

Tomas Guererro – Monterey IF. If his defense actually was good enough to be a SS he would be on the list, but it falls just a bit short. He still will be an above average
3B.Eduado Suarez – Cleveland 2B.

***Three guys that were at the top of the list – but got promoted mid-season.

Leo Mackowiak – Scottsdale SP. Leo has dominated at every level he has pitched at so far. He has great accuracy and has actually put up pretty good strikeout numbers for HBD. He is equally impressive against both LH and RH hitters, and has two highly rated pitches and two more pitches that are adequate. His weakness will be his durability, which limits his pitch count to 90-100 per game. Compares to Pedro Martinez; lights out up until 100 pitches. Promoted

JP Anderson – Sacramento 2B.

Andres Tarrasco – Monterrey IF. A truly spectacular player that should be have a HOF career. He probably won’t be able to play SS at the ML level, but otherwise he doesn’t have much of a fault. He’s a switch hitter with superior contact, power, and batting eye. He crushes LH pitchers and still is above average on RH pitchers. His health, stamina, and makeup are all high so no red flags there. The other great thing about him is he has excelled at every level he has played at.